AND ANALYZE IN THE WEEKS AHEAD.
AND MONTHS AHEAD.
>> TONIGHT, WE'RE JOINED BY
JASON STEIN, RESEARCH DIRECTOR
FOR THE WISCONSIN POLICY FORUM.
JASON, THANKS FOR BEING HERE.
>> THANK YOU.
>> SO, JASON, WHAT STANDS OUT IN
THIS ADDRESS?
>> I MEAN, REALLY, THE REALLY
SUBSTANTIAL FUNDING INCREASES
FOR A WHOLE VARIETY OF
PRIORITIES.
YOU START WITH SCHOOLS,
HEALTHCARE, THINGS LIKE THAT,
THINGS THAT WE WOULD
TRADITIONALLY BE EXPECTING, BUT
THEN YOU THROW IN MORE THAN
$290 MILLION FOR MILLER PARK,
$240 MILLION FOR FAMILY MEDICAL
LEAVE, $750 MILLION FOR
BROADBAND, THOSE SORT OF
NON-TRADITIONAL PRAY O PRIORITIS
EASILY ABOVE A BILLION DOLLARS,
JUST THOSE THREE.
>> CAN YOU PUT THAT IN CONTEXT
FOR PEOPLE?
I THINK THEY'VE HEARD OVER AND
OVER AGAIN WE HAVE THIS HISTORIC
BUDGET SURPLUS, YOU HEARD THE
GOVERNOR MAKE MENTION OF IT
TONIGHT, 7.1 BILLION SOUNDS BIG
BUT HOW DOES THIS COMPARE TO
PREVIOUS BUDGETS?
>> THIS IS UNLIKE ANYTHING WE'VE
EVER SEEN BEFORE IN OUR NUMBERS
GOING BACK 40 YEARS.
SO IT'S REALLY UNPRECEDENTED SO
IT DOES ALLOW FOR BOTH PARTIES
TO THINK BIG, WHETHER THAT'S ON
THE TAX CUT SIDE OR ON THE
SPENDING SIDE.
AT THE SAME TIME, A LOT OF
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES HERE THAT
WILL LOWER THE STATE'S RESERVES
SUBSTANTIALLY, WHICH IS
APPROPRIATE, BUT I THINK THE
SPENDING THAT IS HAPPENING MAY
BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN IN THE
NEXT BUDGET.
>> AS TO THE TAX CUTS, THE
GOVERNOR REGARDS THEM AS TAX
CUTS FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS, AND
THAT IS AS OPPOSED TO WHAT WE
UNDERSTAND THAT THE REPUBLICAN
BUDGET WRITERS ARE INTERESTED
IN, WHICH MAY WELL BE A FLAT
TAX.
HOW DO THESE TWO PLANS COMPARE?
>> SURE.
I MEAN, THE FIRST THING IS THE
GOVERNOR HAS A MIX OF BOTH TAX
INCREASES THAT WOULD PRIMARILY
FALL IN UPPER INCOME EARNERS AND
TAX DECREASES THAT WOULD
PRIMARILY BE FOR LOW AND MIDDLE
INCOME EARNERS.
SO WHEREAS THE REPUBLICAN PLAN
IS, YOU KNOW, ESSENTIALLY
PUTTING FORWARD A VERY LARGE TAX
CUT.
THAT ALSO WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO
SUSTAIN IN FUTURE YEARS.
IT WOULD, OVER A FOUR-YEAR
PHASE-IN EVENTUALLY RAMP UP TO
$5 BILLION A YEAR.
>> HOW ABOUT THE PAID FAMILY
LEAVE PROVISION THAT THE
GOVERNOR TALKED ABOUT THERE?
I MEAN, THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WE ACTUALLY HEARD ABOUT DURING
THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR LAST YEAR,
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE FOR
GOVERNOR TIM MICHAELS SAID HE'D
SUPPORT SOME KIND OF PAID FAMILY
LEAVE IN A DEBATE.
WHAT'S THE LIKELIHOOD YOU'D SEE
THIS REPUBLICAN LEGISLATURE
SUPPORT WHAT THE GOVERNOR TALKED
ABOUT TONIGHT?
>> OBVIOUSLY YOU'VE SEEN THE
REPUBLICAN LEGISLATURE IN THE
PAST MOVE TO -- NOT MOVE IN
FAVOR OF FAMILY MEDICAL LEAVE.
YOU WOULD NOT EXPECT -- I THINK
YOU'D START OUT EXPECTING THERE
NOT TO BE A COMPROMISE ON THAT,
BUT I WILL SAY THAT IN THE WAKE
OF THE DOBBS DECISION BY THE
U.S. SUPREME COURT THIS SUMMER,
THAT OVERTURNED ROE V. WADE, YOU
HAVE SEEN SOME DISCUSSION ON THE
REPUBLICAN SIDE ABOUT WAYS TO
PROVIDE FOR MOTHERS AND NEW
FAMILIES, AND SO THAT MAY
PROVIDE SOME OPENING FOR AT
LEAST SOME KIND OF DISCUSSION
BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES.
>> DO YOU FEEL LIKE THERE'S MORE
COMPROMISE TO BE HAD IN THIS
BUDGET?
>> I DO, IN THE SENSE THAT, YOU
KNOW, THE GOVERNOR IS NOT REALLY
EXPECTED TO RUN FOR A THIRD
TERM, SO I THINK, YOU KNOW, THAT
SORT OF LOWERS THE TEMPERATURE
ON THE POLITICS, AND IT MAY
PROVIDE, YOU KNOW, AGAIN, WE
HAVE A VERY LARGE SURPLUS, IT
MAKES, YOU KNOW, SOME THINGS
CERTAINLY EASIER IN TERMS OF THE
FINANCING, AND I THINK BOTH
SIDES HAVE THINGS THAT THEY
WOULD REALLY LIKE TO GET OUT OF
THIS BUDGET, AND FOR THAT TO
HAPPEN, THERE'S GOT TO BE A
BUDGET APPROVED AND SIGNED.
>> SO WHAT HAPPENS NOW FROM
HERE?
I MEAN, IN THE PAST, A GOVERNOR
WOULD UNVEIL A BUDGET, AND THEY
WOULD GET, YOU KNOW, A LARGE
PERCENTAGE OF WHAT THEY WANTED.
THAT WOULD BE THE WORKING
DOCUMENT THAT THE LEGISLATURE
DEALT WITH.
WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THIS
LEGISLATURE, GIVEN RECENT
HISTORY?
>> SURE.
I MEAN, IF TIM MICHELS HAD WON
IN NOVEMBER, I THINK YOU WOULD
HAVE SEEN HIS BUDGET BE APPROVED
IN ITS MAJORITY BY THE
REPUBLICAN LEGISLATURE.
YOU'RE EXPECTING SOMETHING, YOU
KNOW, IN AN OPPOSITE DIRECTION,
AT LEAST THE GOVERNOR'S BIG
SIGNATURE PROPOSALS, YOU WOULD
NOT EXPECT THEM TO GO THROUGH AS
PASSED, BUT IN AREAS LIKE AID
FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, WHICH WE
CALL SHARED REVENUE, IN --
PERHAPS ON MILLER PARK OR THE
BREWER STADIUM, IN SOME OF THOSE
AREAS, REPEALING A PERSONAL
PROPERTY TAX, YOU COULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME GIVE AND TAKE AND
MAYBE AN ALTERNATE COMPROMISE
PROPOSAL.
>> AS TO THAT SHARED REVENUE
PLAN THAT WOULD GIVE 20% OF THE
STATE SALES TAX BACK TO LOCAL
GOVERNMENTS, THE GOVERNOR MADE
NOTE OF THE FACT THAT IT DOESN'T
MATTER WHOSE IDEA IT WAS,
BECAUSE THIS WAS A REPUBLICAN
IDEA.
>> EXACTLY.
AND YET AT THE SAME TIME, YOU
DIDN'T SEE A LOT OF CLAPPING ON
THE REPUBLICAN SIDE FOR MOST OF
THE THINGS THE GOVERNOR WAS
PUTTING FORWARD, INCLUDING THAT
PROPOSAL.
SO AGAIN, THERE IT SEEMS LIKE
THE TWO SIDES ARE PRETTY CLOSE,
BUT THERE'S STILL ALWAYS, I
THINK IN TODAY'S HYPERPARTISAN
WORLD, A LOT OF GULF TO BRIDGE.
>> I THINK THERE MIGHT BE AN
IDEA IN THE PUBLIC THAT WHEN YOU
HAVE SO MUCH MONEY, THEY OUGHT
TO BE ABLE TO GET SOMETHING THEY
WANT, THE GOVERNOR OUGHT TO BE
ABLE TO GET WHAT HE WANTS, THE
LEGISLATURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET WHAT THEY WANT.
IZE EE BU -- EASY BUDGET CYCLE.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> I THINK APPETITES GROW AS THE
PLATTERS GROW, SO I THINK IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE.
THERE'S CERTAINLY -- BOTH SIDES
CAN GET MANY THINGS THAT THEY
WANT, MAYBE NOT ALL THE THINGS
THAT THEY WANT, AND I THINK ONE
OF THE DYNAMICS AS WELL, THOUGH,
IS WHEN THERE'S MORE TO DIVVY
UP, THERE'S ALSO MORE TO FIGHT
ABOUT.
>> MEANWHILE, THIS IS BEING
INTRODUCED FORMALLY BEFORE THE
JOINT FINANCE COMMITTEE THIS
EVENING?
>> THAT'S HOW IT STARTS, RIGHT
AWAY.
>> CORRECT.
THE GOVERNOR'S BILL WILL GO TO
THE JOINT FINANCE COMMITTEE.
IT WILL BE REVIEWED, THERE WILL
BE HEARINGS IN THE COMING
MONTHS, AND THEN IN MAY AND
JEUP, JUNE, THE JOINT FINANCE
COMMITTEE WILL MARK THAT BUDGET
UP, THEY'LL SEND A BILL OUT TO
THE ASSEMBLY AND THEY'LL
EVENTUALLY AGREE ON A VERSION,
IT WILL GO TO THE GOVERNOR, AND
THEN HE WILL DECIDE, AM I GOING
TO USE MY POWERFUL PARTIAL VETO
PEN TO VETO THIS IN PART BUT
SIGN MOST OF IT, OR AM I GOING
TO REJECT IT IN WHOLE, WHICH
WOULD, YOU KNOW, PUT US IN
PRETTY UNCHARTED TERRITORY.
>> WE WILL SEE.
>> ALL RIGHT.