>> Days before the
Democratic primary for governor,
it seems like
two camps
have finally
emerged. Why
is the
establishment united
now and
is it too
little, too
late? This
is politics.isconsin
I'm Shawn
Johnson here with
my colleagues
Anya van Wagtendonk Zac
Schultz and Rich
Kremer Eau
Claire. Hey, everyone.
>> Hello. >>
Hey. >> So
it seems like
just a few weeks
ago on
this wehow,
were all kind
of wondering
where all these
candidates in this big
primary fit,
what were their
political lanes?
It like the
mainstream frontrunner
at that point
was less
clear. Zac,
why is sort
of coming into focus now
and is there
enough time?
>> Well, I think
you have at this primary in
the context of the political mood
for primary
voters, which are that arets
mainly angry
at Donald Trump
and his administration
there. you
look at it in
that frame, the
establishment's Thebad guy.
establishment is national
Democrats who haven't
done enough to stand
up to Trump.
So tapping into
those voters meant
you couldn't
be the establishment
because then you the side
of inertia.
So Francesca Hong clearly
moved to the
left. She going to fight,
fight, otherof thea
Democrats in this outflankying to
her, and they just could not. Even as
late as Crowleyago, David
was not happy to called the establishment.
Mandela Barnes denied that there was any lane
that he put into before he
dropped out of the one wanted
to be pinned as establishment, because that
kind of denied
them access
to the voters that
were changend wanted
that looked like
more of same.
And so it
is a little too
late in the sense
that if there's a of votes that
have already but it is now
clearly going that there has to be a
centralized mentidate of establish
power if they want challenge the lane
that solidified for has
herself. >> And
Ana. You've
covered Crowley. I
mean, it wantstill doesn't
that establishment
label for
a variety of
reasons. Why is
that? >> Yeah, I mean,
part of it what Zac just described
is that there's really lot of anger
towards the establishment
for, I
think what
Democrats feel or some
Democrats feel has been
inertia and sort of not
enough of
a of a
fight and
not wanting the
status quo.
But also David
Crowley has particularly kind
of interesting
personal backstory. He comes
from a
really sort of impoverished,
challenged background
in Milwaukee.
And so up
until, you know, he
dropped out the
first time
in this race,
he was kind of
described as potentially
not electable
because statewide,
there's there's
sometimes, you know,
negative feelings about Milwaukee.
There is, you
know, always
the racial
element of
the fact that never been a Black
man elected to statewide
office in Wisconsin.
So there were all these
questions about him. Then
he comes back with endorsement of Tony
Evers, described he's
as the I've heard fromOne
a lot of well,orters is like,
which one is it? it that he's
two Milwaukee Hee two establishment?
can't be both. Why being held
to the standard? I think he's also
trying to say, you I've really kind
of had to thatget everything
I've ever had. I not handed things.
I am not this kind of gilded
establishment path. That ,
I do have some this backing and
the me to win.that will
So again, it's a little bit threading the
needle of I'm a candidate, but I
will also to the things that
you're angry about. You know, I always
worry candidates into camps
like sort oftether this
a media narrative we've created or if
there's something real to it. But I feel
like the came out thisumbers
week, which put
some substance
behind the
idea that there
are these
camps emerging
between Francesca Hong and
David Crowley.
What they
show? >> Well, they
showed couple of things
that were First oftable.
all, Crowley
raised more than
twice as
much money during
the month of
July, most
of the
month, ofost
the month of
July, he
raised $776,000
thereabout, and Huang
brought in around
$339,000. So
that is a
big sign
that, at
least in terms of
money, Crowley's
campaign is getting some
backing. And the
other sign
that caught my attention
was Governor
Tony Evers,
you know, who
endorsed Crowley's
campaign, which
is definitely
being as aned
alternative to Francesca Hong.
He gaveo
$20,000 from
his from
Evers campaign
account to
Crowley's campaign
account. That's not a
lot of butney,
I was talking with
Anthony Chergosky, the
political science
professor over at
UW La Crosse, and
he said,
you know,
it's a lot
of money. $20,000
doesn't buy you a whole lot.
But it
could be a
signal to Evers
donors, Evers
supporters that
I'm not
just saying I
support this,
I'm putting my
money behind
it. So
Chergosky was it'sing
potentially possible
that it'll
open up some
more of that
money from the
more moderate,
quote unquote,
establishment of the
party. >> Yeah, I
mean, I think anecdotally, I
do see the
message being
received as some of
these other
candidates campaign
signs in my
neighborhood innyway
Madison that
we're supporting
people like
Sara example,, for
have have
changed to
David Crowley.
I guess my
question, though, Zac, is,
can Governor
Tony Evers,
popular governor,
popular within the
party, but
a duck
governor this
late in
a primary
campaign kind
of steer
the ship like
this? Can he tell
everybody once at
the last minute,
hey, vote for
this guy.
>> He can try.
But the evidence
throughout history
shows that
endorsements don't do
a lot,
especially late.
Early endorsements
show that a
candidate has viability,
early endorsements from
unions or from old
political people really
surge early in the game
when necessary
for someone like
David Crowley
to have histed
name in a field late in the
game, it has less because people have
made up they're less
likely to be figure. political
They can say, oh, that's nice, you like
him, to makemealready
up my mind, and we've seen it with
the endorsement in theand
Michigan candidate losing. We've
seen it in other where endorsements don't
have the same power maybe they did
20, 30, 40, years ago when
bestowing the next
person as
an establishment figure
meant lot
more than
in today's
politics. to framer wants
it as sort of binary choice, a
two that there are. It's
still other the race. in
Senator Kelda
Roys, former
Department of Administration
Secretary Joel Brennan
Ana, how
do intofit
this? youd,
know, what could
they play? What role
could they play in this
primary? upe do end mean,
kind of talking. And have, for the
last couple about it as almost
a Crowley Hong race. they do
end up kind of getting some some
perhaps shafting in the
conversation from the
media, because
I sensek there's a
that this is Hong's
race to lose is the phrase
that you've used before. And so it's
kind of hung so Crowleyeryone
has been sort of the anointed one. But
then Brennan
are just in the mix
there. And so I think
it really is, when we talk about
establishment versus progressive, the
other candidates just
kind of
get lumped They'reer.
obviously trying to
distinguish themselves.
Again, when we talk
about endorsements, Kelda Roys
t this
really important
teachers union
endorsement didn't seem
to really
shift anything early
on. Whereas,
you know, ten,
15 years ago,
that would been a much
more meaningful again, I think it
just kind of speaks Francesca Hong is
running a unique,
strange race.
She has not raised as
much money, but it doesn't
seem sort ofer. She's
headlines on her
own, sort of
organically through these
paid ways. And
then all these other candidates are
just trying to kind trying to to
catch up. herselfnot putting
on TV, but
other people are. You've had
these Republican groups consistently
putting her in
TV ads,
calling her
liberal ahead of this
primary. She has
spent $0 on
television, which is just unheard of
in any type of
serious race.
And she's not
running just a serious
race. She's running the
leading race.
She's doing
some, you digital
media and things like
this. But a
lot of her
campaign is
very grassroots, very kind
of right,o you're
when we see if see her face
on your TV or on your your YouTube,
it is groups are paying
for ads get her over the
finish line because they think she's beatable. But
meanwhile, she kind of you know, thanks
for for policies.ttention
So our election is happening in a
vacuum. of this kind
wave of
democratic socialists or
democratic socialists
backed candidates around
the country
who have done
exceedingly well
in this year's
politics compared
to previous
years. This
week in Michigan,
Abdul a-Sayed,
progressive candidate
backed by Democratic
Socialist allies, narrowly
won a primary
there for a
U.S. seatate
over an
establishment congresswoman
Ana. guess
everyone is the exact
same this one,from
right? on theone's
same page about what
it means for here.
>> Yeah. You know, politics, everyone just
reads everything in the exact
same. >> So page.
of course, you know, again, this, this
g year ison this
like, what going in? Are
they going in orore progressive lane
not? And so I
think for want to see that
DSA backing and these
kind progressive
leanings are
aviable in
way that they haven't been before.
El-sayed's victory
is a signal
of that.
But David
Crowley is saying,
actually, the fact that
it close
gives me forpe
my campaign
because he had all
of this
outside funding. He had all of
this attention,
and he still
didn't run away
with And so even though,
again, we see all polling numbers and
things that Hong isat
currently withng away
the primary,
he's saying, we
actually might be surprised on
primary night.
>> Yeah, I mean, Rich, we
haven't reported on
this. And,
you know, we
typically thesetalk about
internal polls.
But this one was
interesting from
the Crowley
campaign theyre
said, hear
me This.
is actually
exactly to hearwant
for Wisconsin's
primary. And
it stepped
through, guess,
all of
the qualifications that you'd
ed to get
there. But big
picture, what
is Crowley's
camp saying in terms
of why Michigan could
mean things
for us?
>> Well, for one,
they're saying
this memo was
saying that
the primary
polling that's
been done
in Wisconsin also
just then't
kind of want tog you
do to really know where
candidates are
at. They said it
was top
line and
not looking
at whoople
actually vote
in sortse
of primaries.
The thing
was that
they saying
that primary
voters, you know,
because of
past numbers
from governor
races before
and Senate
races, etc.
show that
in a primary,
it's generally
the oldest
group, know,
65 and up
that that
vote the most.
And they're
saying Crowley
is candidate
talking to
directly to those
people Soht now.
as you mentioned,
there were a
lot qualifiers
to get to the
part of the memo
from the Crowley camp
that said,
this is essentially a
toss between the
two of them.
So it will
be interesting
because what I've
also noticed
is some
Pollers pollsters
have said
there's this
10 to 13 point
error rate kind of
built primary
polling. mean,
that's what we saw
in Michigan.
El-Sayed was
leading
by 19
points in one
of these
polls. And
the race
came out
to be
really close.
He won,
but not by
those sorts
of numbers. So
what does that
say for
the polling that
we've been
relying on in
Wisconsin to kind of
get a sense of
who youont and who's,
know, second place,
I don't
know. >> Yeah,
Zac, if
help me walk through
this, you like
basically four youings
had to suppose
one was that the
primary electorate is not
what the polls
show. It's more like
2018, that those are
older voters gohey're going to
for David Crowley and that if you really
boil it race,o candidate
which is not, he even better. And
when you inform
them of
David Crowley
that his numbers
get even better
and put over
the top. there's a lot of
assumptions built into this best case
scenario that
even then
only puts it as
a toss up for
David butowley,
that is the
odds that he's
got against him
in this scenario.
Given all
that we know about
the campaigns
as they stand
right now,
and things areat
different from Michigan Michigan didn't have
multiple candidates
that already
secured absentee
votes and then
dropped out of the
race. We
don't know how
many votes
have already been
cast for Sara Rodriguez for
Mandela are someere I
because I've voters who said I
already voted for them. Those votes aren't coming
back. They are gone. will not impact
the winner. differencen of
and questions of, hey,
would that have made difference if they
had those votersearlier,
had waited, or they could have spoiled
those ballots and recast them? Those are all
things thisot ofknow.
is in hindsight. It'll all make a lot
more sense. it's a lot of
projection and it's Crowley saying, hey, don't count
me runner awayjust
to because she's
in right now.
I have a legitimate
chance. So if believe this
talk about establishment and I'm the
man, then vote for
me. >> All
right? As
our election
becomes the bigxt
thing in U.S. politics,
we're seeing more national
attention and scrutiny
of Francesca Hong. That
scrutiny of her
social media
feed, old
tweets, including one
where talked
about Thanksgiving
in a since
deleted tweet from
2020, she said,
quote, Cancel
Thanksgiving should have ne
this in 16, 20,
21, 1621. If
it takes
a worldwide
pandemic for tos
realize we
should stop celebrating
colonialism thed
original super spreader
event that killed
indigenous folks and
women, so
be it.
An open
question the
group here.
Is this
tweet relevant
in 2026?
>> It is, and
that areople
talking about
it. we're
talking about it
here. It's made
national news,
national headlines,
and you know, who
loves to about this? It's
the Tom Tiffany.n
So I
think the context that
can be
added to this tweet
is 2020 is
when Hongncesca
was first running
for the
assembly, running
in a very
liberal district
in Madison in an open
primary. So
everything she was
saying, whether she
believes it now or wants
to talk about it
now, she
was saying to
a liberal
primary audience in
Madison in
2020, coming out of the George
Floyd protests,
coming ofut
Covid, all the
situations around
that, you
put it in herntext,
tweets look like a
candidate running
for that at that
time, fact
that she is a
different candidate for a different
office today,
we've seen this from
lots of politicians who
say, let's not talk
about that. That was my
race for racet was my.
for assembly.
Not every
politician will
always love the
stuff dug up from
past votes or past
campaigns, withe to deal
it. And so that what her campaign
is having >> Yeah,ow.
I guess. mean, I think about
politics as sort of customer is
always right being the voter,
where even right, think they're
you're in the business as a candidate of
winning votes. And so enough
people want to pay
attention to a tweet about
Thanksgiving, you
got a choice
to make
rich. Do
you kind of
hope it
moves on to the
next news
cycle or
you say something
about it? How is
Francesca it? been handling
>> Well, to me,
it likems
she's tried
both. She's
initially she was
saying things like,
well, Republicans
want to focus on
that sort you stuff,
know, we're
busy reaching out to
voters and
building up our
support. ET cetera. ET
cetera. So she
was kind of
waving it off.
But this
week we
saw hung
kind of
backtrack on
that tweet in
particular whole a
other slew
of tweets
calling for
from the past,
calling for
abolishing police,
abolishing Ice, abolishing the
US ETenate.
cetera. ET cetera.
So but
with regard to
the Thanksgiving
tweet this
week, she
said to
CNN, she
didn't really say
whether not she
still supports,
you know, canceling
Thanksgiving. She said it's
a that
holiday brings a
lot of
pain to
a lot of
communities. But she
stopped short
of of agiving
definitive answer.
And onn
Wednesday, she was
asked by
Politico about
that tweet and
she said, or
they they
asked what her
favorite holiday is, and
she said,
Thanksgiving. said, I
don't want to it. I love it.
So that's
obviously kind
of backtracking.
Whether that's
because she
saw this
as a liability
or she's
trying to put it to rest, I
don't know. But that
and also
she said,
you know,
in the
televised debate
not ago and
in these media
interviews at the
national shel,
said, well,
I as governor
can't defund the
police. And,
you know,
she essentially walked
back those as
well. So reallybeen
interesting to see,
not surprising
for a inerson
that position, but
always notable.
>> And, you
know, alluded to
the office she's
running for now. You get a
different flavor of tweet
from her or
I guess a
post on
X now
than you did
then. She's made
recent posts
about Thanksgiving,
this one
from last
year where
she talked
about thepporting
Goodman Center in
a fund
drive. A
crucial there
she is dressed
up in
one of those
pictures as a
turkey. So
seems like
fully embracing
the Thanksgiving
holiday right
now. Anya, we
cannot talk about
social media
without mentioning
Dirt McGirk social
media Rununt.
by David Crowley
circa 2010.
Has his
social media past come back to
haunt him? mean, it was kind
of first
like, dump that came
out after he
reentered the race. And so
these are
old you mentioned,
from about
15 years
ago, very
reflective of
a 24
year sort of out
in the world where new technology
you get to just announce every single
t ashat you're having
you're having it. If all recall what
Twitter was the year 2010. So
that was a short I don'tycle.
think it was a fairly significant one. He
certainly said, you know, was a
knucklehead. I don't
stand by some of the more
problematic parts
of those tweets. And,
and I do kind
of, you devil'sto play
advocate about how voters
feel about
tweets. I have
this question of
whether, you know,
voters sort of see
what they want see in these. If
you Crowley, you can
point to as a reason
why you don't trust him like him or
approve of his character.
And with Fran
Hong, if you
do like
them, then you it's
very easy to kind
of dismiss
it. I saw some Fran Hong's
supporters pulling out
other times
that she has knocked
other holidays.
She's about how in
restaurants she
wants to kick everyone who
shows up in
Halloween costumes,
that hates
Valentine's like,
working those
shifts in
restaurants. So
making more of
a joke
about it that this is
just more about
their personality and their
character. And I think, you
know, we've spent
ten, 15
years now
having so much exposure
to politicians
through social
media way a
that they don't
need be mediated
through kind of
traditional media,
that I lot of voters are
kind of used to these more
human sides. alsoean, we
saw with Graham Plattner
what I would describe
as like really ofd
horrible mediaal
posts about
rape victims and
other things
that voters really
kind of
excused because they
wanted to
see the best in
this politician
that they really
admired and supported
his policies.
And so I
think ato
certain going to we're
see how important kinds of things
are. And I
don't really
know itt
moves your
average voter
other than to
sort of put them
in the camp that
they might have been to either way.
>> Yeah. In a, whenan era
the president has been known to say some
stuff on >> To govern through.
>> Social media. >> These are
sort of tame That'srison in Wisconsin.
all the time we for today. Thanks
for has beens. This
inside Wisconsin Be sure to
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