1 00:00:01,468 --> 00:00:03,570 After Sara Rodriguez drops out of the race for 2 00:00:03,637 --> 00:00:06,840 governor. David Crowley drops back in. We know Tony 3 00:00:06,907 --> 00:00:09,510 Evers supports him. We don't know yet what voters 4 00:00:09,576 --> 00:00:13,480 think this is Inside Wisconsin Politics. 5 00:00:16,550 --> 00:00:17,951 I'm Shawn Johnson here with my colleagues Anya van 6 00:00:18,018 --> 00:00:20,254 my colleagues Anya van Wagtendonk Zac Schultz and 7 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,724 Rich Kremer in Eau Claire. Hey, everyone. Hello. So 8 00:00:23,790 --> 00:00:26,560 this race is pure chaos, now, wouldn't you say? I 9 00:00:26,627 --> 00:00:28,695 mean, when you think about it, just last week we were 10 00:00:28,762 --> 00:00:30,631 talking about Sarah Rodriguez's campaign sort 11 00:00:30,697 --> 00:00:34,868 of teetering shortly after it fell. And then almost 12 00:00:34,935 --> 00:00:37,371 immediately you had David Crowley, who had been out 13 00:00:37,437 --> 00:00:42,042 of the race, get back in Ana. Why did David Crowley 14 00:00:42,109 --> 00:00:45,679 take that step so quickly after Sara Rodriguez 15 00:00:45,746 --> 00:00:47,948 dropped out? Why did it need to be him in this race? 16 00:00:48,015 --> 00:00:50,651 >> Yeah, I mean, it's a really great question, and 17 00:00:50,717 --> 00:00:53,020 I think we're kind of trying to hammer down 18 00:00:53,086 --> 00:00:55,722 exactly what that eight day calculus kind of was. So he 19 00:00:55,789 --> 00:00:58,292 dropped out. He backed Sarah Rodriguez. A couple 20 00:00:58,358 --> 00:01:00,027 days later, she made this announcement that there 21 00:01:00,093 --> 00:01:02,162 were issues with her campaign, but she was going 22 00:01:02,229 --> 00:01:05,132 to stay in. And I spoke to him a little bit ago. And 23 00:01:05,199 --> 00:01:08,869 his timeline of events is essentially that she 24 00:01:08,936 --> 00:01:10,904 on. He, you know, reiterated his support for 25 00:01:10,971 --> 00:01:14,208 her campaign, started hearing from backers all 26 00:01:14,274 --> 00:01:16,410 week that they wanted him back in that essentially 27 00:01:16,476 --> 00:01:18,278 there was different information than than what 28 00:01:18,345 --> 00:01:21,014 he had dropped out on. And we started hearing from 29 00:01:21,081 --> 00:01:23,984 sources that maybe he was going to get back in with 30 00:01:24,051 --> 00:01:26,486 the finance deadline. Never heard back from him. When I 31 00:01:26,553 --> 00:01:29,256 when I directly asked this last week, and then we 32 00:01:29,323 --> 00:01:31,391 started to hear the rumblings on Friday as 33 00:01:31,458 --> 00:01:33,493 Sarah announced that she was dropping out, that he 34 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:36,463 was going to announce the next day. And then we kind 35 00:01:36,530 --> 00:01:38,599 of got that confirmation. So it really was almost a 36 00:01:38,665 --> 00:01:41,502 trading of who was going to be potentially this 37 00:01:41,568 --> 00:01:44,471 frontrunner. The other with his announcement was 38 00:01:44,538 --> 00:01:47,040 Governor Tony Evers endorsing him. And so that 39 00:01:47,107 --> 00:01:50,611 he suddenly became the sort of person who is tied to 40 00:01:50,677 --> 00:01:54,047 that administration in this race. 41 00:01:54,114 --> 00:01:56,183 you can talk about the Crowley candidacy without 42 00:01:56,250 --> 00:01:58,151 talking about Governor Tony Evers in that decision. Zac, 43 00:01:58,218 --> 00:02:01,321 why did Tony Evers, who has told us repeatedly 44 00:02:01,388 --> 00:02:04,124 throughout this primary cycle, I'm not going to get 45 00:02:04,191 --> 00:02:05,926 involved. Why did he get involved now and why did he 46 00:02:05,993 --> 00:02:08,662 say. David Crowley is my guy. 47 00:02:09,196 --> 00:02:11,265 second half of the statement, if I'm not 48 00:02:11,331 --> 00:02:13,400 getting involved, is that I might decide later. And 49 00:02:13,467 --> 00:02:16,103 that always felt like keeping the back door open, 50 00:02:16,170 --> 00:02:17,804 but unlikely to be used. Well, he went through the 51 00:02:17,871 --> 00:02:19,773 back door. >> He did. 52 00:02:21,208 --> 00:02:23,377 did. He played his euchre card as his last, his last 53 00:02:23,443 --> 00:02:26,280 jack in the hole for that. The reason why it seems 54 00:02:26,346 --> 00:02:29,116 only can be that he and others that think like him 55 00:02:29,183 --> 00:02:32,152 are not happy with Francesca Hong and the lead 56 00:02:32,219 --> 00:02:34,721 she has throughout this entire race. All the 57 00:02:34,788 --> 00:02:36,590 polling, including the stuff we're going to talk 58 00:02:36,657 --> 00:02:39,493 about later in this very show, shows that she is a 59 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:41,962 clear frontrunner for the Democratic primary. And 60 00:02:42,029 --> 00:02:46,233 really, there's been no ability for anyone else to 61 00:02:46,300 --> 00:02:48,936 centralize all of the support for the centrist, 62 00:02:49,002 --> 00:02:52,806 moderate Tony Evers, heir, to take over that position. 63 00:02:52,873 --> 00:02:55,375 We had heard that Evers and Crowley got along, that 64 00:02:55,442 --> 00:02:57,778 they liked each other. How much of the personal 65 00:02:57,845 --> 00:02:59,413 relationship matters? We don't know and matters a 66 00:02:59,479 --> 00:03:02,549 lot in politics. Sara Rodriguez clearly had that 67 00:03:02,616 --> 00:03:05,018 position even without the endorsement. So Tony Evers 68 00:03:05,085 --> 00:03:07,921 could say, I'm not the kingmaker here. Clearly him 69 00:03:07,988 --> 00:03:10,424 stepping in is that he felt he needed to use some of 70 00:03:10,490 --> 00:03:14,061 his political capital to try and boost someone to 71 00:03:14,127 --> 00:03:17,531 take on Francesca Hong and make it a two person race. 72 00:03:17,598 --> 00:03:20,033 >> Yeah, Rich, we've been kind of hinting at that, 73 00:03:20,100 --> 00:03:24,905 that Hong dynamic all campaign cycle. But until 74 00:03:24,972 --> 00:03:27,541 now, Democrats hadn't been out there saying it. You 75 00:03:27,608 --> 00:03:29,810 covered the Crowley announcement this past 76 00:03:29,877 --> 00:03:32,679 Saturday. He's saying it now. 77 00:03:34,982 --> 00:03:37,985 >> Yeah. I mean, he didn't name her when he announced, 78 00:03:38,051 --> 00:03:40,187 but it was pretty obvious who he was talking about. 79 00:03:40,254 --> 00:03:43,857 He referenced the Republican Governors 80 00:03:43,924 --> 00:03:48,829 Association, the RGA, putting up ads that it says 81 00:03:48,896 --> 00:03:52,533 are attacking her. But Democrats feel that it's 82 00:03:52,599 --> 00:03:55,469 actually boosting her and aimed at trying to get her 83 00:03:55,536 --> 00:03:59,740 to clear the Democrats nomination. So he mentioned 84 00:03:59,806 --> 00:04:03,744 that. And it's it's pretty obvious what what's going 85 00:04:03,810 --> 00:04:06,480 on here. >> So what does this say 86 00:04:06,547 --> 00:04:08,715 about what Tony Evers thinks about the rest of 87 00:04:08,782 --> 00:04:11,652 the field? Anya. >> Well, I think it was a 88 00:04:11,718 --> 00:04:14,788 bit of a dance that he needed to be doing because 89 00:04:14,855 --> 00:04:17,090 he does have relationships with everybody else in the 90 00:04:17,157 --> 00:04:19,560 field. So obviously it was his lieutenant, his current 91 00:04:19,626 --> 00:04:22,029 lieutenant governor, who stepped out Sara Rodriguez. 92 00:04:22,095 --> 00:04:23,897 But his former lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes, 93 00:04:23,964 --> 00:04:26,800 is in there, his former Genoa secretary, Joel 94 00:04:26,867 --> 00:04:28,936 Brennan, and then Kelda Roys, who's been in the 95 00:04:29,002 --> 00:04:32,172 legislature alongside him for quite a number of years. 96 00:04:32,239 --> 00:04:34,308 David Crowley, in some ways is actually the person he 97 00:04:34,374 --> 00:04:36,710 has the least professional relationship with. Just 98 00:04:36,777 --> 00:04:38,612 because, you know, David operates at the county 99 00:04:38,679 --> 00:04:41,215 level, he's not in the state legislature quite as 100 00:04:41,281 --> 00:04:43,383 much. So they haven't necessarily, you know, 101 00:04:43,450 --> 00:04:45,552 worked. He hasn't served in the administration, I guess 102 00:04:45,619 --> 00:04:48,121 I should say. And so it's interesting that this is 103 00:04:48,188 --> 00:04:50,524 the person that he's choosing to back because he 104 00:04:50,591 --> 00:04:53,760 does have, you know, as you say, he he pulled the one 105 00:04:53,827 --> 00:04:56,463 card that he kind of has, and he's putting it behind 106 00:04:56,530 --> 00:04:59,399 this person who dropped out, who had said that he didn't 107 00:04:59,466 --> 00:05:01,535 have the finances, who said he didn't have the path. 108 00:05:01,602 --> 00:05:04,505 And so Tony Evers is saying both I backed this person. 109 00:05:04,571 --> 00:05:07,107 I backed his politics. And I think I can help him get 110 00:05:07,174 --> 00:05:09,376 that path. >> I will say, if you just 111 00:05:09,443 --> 00:05:12,312 walk back a few years, David Crowley used to be a 112 00:05:12,379 --> 00:05:14,548 legislative staffer. The governor's chief of staff 113 00:05:14,615 --> 00:05:16,783 used to be a legislative staffer who was called 114 00:05:16,850 --> 00:05:19,286 David Crowley, a friend, and she is influential in 115 00:05:19,353 --> 00:05:22,589 the governor's office. So there's possible that he 116 00:05:22,656 --> 00:05:25,392 was getting advice there, that David Crowley is a 117 00:05:25,459 --> 00:05:28,695 good candidate. So what's the theory of how this 118 00:05:28,762 --> 00:05:31,899 works out, though, Zac? I mean, the governor's office 119 00:05:31,965 --> 00:05:34,801 and Crowley are going into this thing thinking we're 120 00:05:34,868 --> 00:05:37,104 going to take this big risk. They must think they can 121 00:05:37,171 --> 00:05:39,439 win. How does it work? >> That's a good question. 122 00:05:39,506 --> 00:05:42,676 And we have seen how quickly the dynamics in 123 00:05:42,743 --> 00:05:45,846 this race can change on the ground. We have seen 124 00:05:45,913 --> 00:05:47,915 candidates rise and fall, according to finance 125 00:05:47,981 --> 00:05:49,850 reports. According to polling, candidates 126 00:05:49,917 --> 00:05:53,453 dropping out, coming back in, things are happening 127 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:55,556 rapidly. And one thing, it feels like it's really 128 00:05:55,622 --> 00:05:57,824 close to this primary election because ballots 129 00:05:57,891 --> 00:06:00,294 have already been returned. The Democratic Party is 130 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:02,262 worried about people not being able to spoil those 131 00:06:02,329 --> 00:06:05,065 ballots. If they drop, if they back someone who's 132 00:06:05,132 --> 00:06:08,135 dropped out and there's a there's still a long way to 133 00:06:08,202 --> 00:06:10,237 go, though. There's still a couple of weeks, there's 134 00:06:10,304 --> 00:06:12,339 more polls, there's a lot more ad spending. And as 135 00:06:12,406 --> 00:06:14,441 we're going to explain, there was actually an 136 00:06:14,508 --> 00:06:17,110 incident that happened in Madison last night with the 137 00:06:17,177 --> 00:06:20,280 police involved shooting. up races in a big way by 138 00:06:20,347 --> 00:06:22,316 putting candidates in difficult positions to see 139 00:06:22,382 --> 00:06:25,152 how they react, and they are judged according to 140 00:06:25,219 --> 00:06:26,587 that. >> Yeah, we do want to 141 00:06:26,653 --> 00:06:28,822 acknowledge that that shooting people are 142 00:06:28,889 --> 00:06:31,725 reacting to that shooting that took place Wednesday. 143 00:06:31,792 --> 00:06:35,629 There's a vigil tonight or Thursday as we record this. 144 00:06:35,696 --> 00:06:38,198 This is going to be a thing. You've already seen the 145 00:06:38,265 --> 00:06:41,468 candidates react to some very strongly. It's going 146 00:06:41,535 --> 00:06:44,605 to affect the race. We're just going to take a pause 147 00:06:44,671 --> 00:06:46,740 here and wait for more information to learn more 148 00:06:46,807 --> 00:06:50,777 about this before we talk about it in this setting, 149 00:06:50,844 --> 00:06:54,114 Rich, turning to something very explicitly political, 150 00:06:54,181 --> 00:06:56,850 the Marquette poll came out this week. We've been 151 00:06:56,917 --> 00:06:59,720 looking forward to this for a while. The last time 152 00:06:59,786 --> 00:07:02,222 Marquette pulled on the race for governor was in 153 00:07:02,289 --> 00:07:05,926 March. So why did this one that we've been kind of 154 00:07:05,993 --> 00:07:10,197 marking on our calendar seem so incomplete? 155 00:07:10,264 --> 00:07:12,766 >> You're saying we marked the Marquette poll on our 156 00:07:12,833 --> 00:07:15,636 calendars? I mean, we might have. It's because it is 157 00:07:15,702 --> 00:07:18,739 incomplete. It's not a full picture, but it's through 158 00:07:18,805 --> 00:07:22,009 no fault of the pollsters who I'll mention in a 159 00:07:22,075 --> 00:07:26,246 second. But the questions went out to Wisconsin 160 00:07:26,313 --> 00:07:31,318 voters between July 8th and the 16th. Well, July 8th is 161 00:07:32,219 --> 00:07:36,523 when the things kind of got crazy in the primary. 162 00:07:36,590 --> 00:07:39,326 Crowley had dropped out on July 8th when the questions 163 00:07:39,393 --> 00:07:42,262 were out, so he wasn't included in the results 164 00:07:42,329 --> 00:07:46,300 that we saw. And also the poll asked about Rodriguez. 165 00:07:46,366 --> 00:07:50,170 Her information was included, but she ended her 166 00:07:50,237 --> 00:07:53,574 campaign essentially right after they got the the data 167 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:58,045 back from their surveys. So it's still good information 168 00:07:58,111 --> 00:08:00,581 still gave us a sense of where things are at, at 169 00:08:00,647 --> 00:08:03,750 least among those that were included in the the poll 170 00:08:03,817 --> 00:08:06,987 results, but it's just a partial picture. So I 171 00:08:07,054 --> 00:08:10,591 wanted to give a shout out to pollster Charles 172 00:08:10,657 --> 00:08:14,995 Franklin, who I know watches this podcast. And 173 00:08:15,729 --> 00:08:20,601 we all really appreciate the work that Charles and 174 00:08:20,667 --> 00:08:23,637 the rest of his team do. And I think we can 175 00:08:23,704 --> 00:08:26,440 sympathize, at least I can, that we've all been in a 176 00:08:26,507 --> 00:08:28,275 position where we're writing a story, or we just 177 00:08:28,342 --> 00:08:31,578 published a story only to have the news change and 178 00:08:31,645 --> 00:08:35,249 essentially make that story, you know, totally outdated 179 00:08:35,315 --> 00:08:38,051 and you have to start from scratch. So it's like 180 00:08:38,118 --> 00:08:40,721 throwing darts at a moving target. It's pretty tough. 181 00:08:40,787 --> 00:08:43,190 So kudos to them for doing what they could. 182 00:08:43,257 --> 00:08:45,392 >> Rich Cramer looking to boost his approval rating 183 00:08:45,459 --> 00:08:48,161 with Marquette's pollster there with with a shout out. 184 00:08:48,228 --> 00:08:51,331 So let's take a look at those results real quick. 185 00:08:51,398 --> 00:08:53,767 The candidates who remain in the race. This is when 186 00:08:53,834 --> 00:08:56,236 you don't include David Crowley and you don't 187 00:08:56,303 --> 00:08:59,606 include the voters who picked Sara Rodriguez. 188 00:08:59,673 --> 00:09:02,442 Francesca Hong leads the pack with 27%, followed by 189 00:09:02,509 --> 00:09:05,779 Mandela Barnes with 18, Joel Brennan with five, 190 00:09:05,846 --> 00:09:10,851 Kelda, Roys with two, and 48% undecided. So Francesca 191 00:09:12,486 --> 00:09:15,522 Hong leads the field. This is the third Marquette poll 192 00:09:15,589 --> 00:09:19,593 that she's done that in this year. Does she have 193 00:09:19,660 --> 00:09:22,362 this locked up? >> I mean, I think if she 194 00:09:22,429 --> 00:09:25,199 had it locked up, we wouldn't be seeing the deck 195 00:09:25,265 --> 00:09:27,301 shuffling that we keep seeing because she does 196 00:09:27,367 --> 00:09:29,870 very well in these polls. She has a very energetic 197 00:09:29,937 --> 00:09:32,673 base of support, and yet she doesn't have the power 198 00:09:32,739 --> 00:09:34,575 players kind of unifying behind her because they 199 00:09:34,641 --> 00:09:37,244 keep trying to find an alternative. I think if she, 200 00:09:37,311 --> 00:09:40,047 you know, had it locked up, so to speak, there would be 201 00:09:40,113 --> 00:09:42,516 a confidence from the sort of democratic authorities, 202 00:09:42,583 --> 00:09:45,285 the Democratic kingmakers, that would say that she can 203 00:09:45,352 --> 00:09:48,188 win both the primary and win the general. And I 204 00:09:48,255 --> 00:09:51,525 think we are seeing, maybe implicitly, more than 205 00:09:51,592 --> 00:09:53,660 explicitly, a real concern that she can't. And so who 206 00:09:53,727 --> 00:09:57,297 can they kind of bring in in order to beat Tom 207 00:09:57,364 --> 00:09:59,933 Tiffany? And so she does very well in a Democratic 208 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,369 poll. Although, again, I think we also have to talk 209 00:10:02,436 --> 00:10:05,439 about that 48% undecided number. But can she do well 210 00:10:05,506 --> 00:10:07,407 in a general. That's sort of the big question that 211 00:10:07,474 --> 00:10:10,310 Democrats are very worried about. 212 00:10:10,377 --> 00:10:13,046 that 48%. Nearly half of the people, half the 213 00:10:13,113 --> 00:10:14,948 Democratic voters who responded to this saying, I 214 00:10:15,015 --> 00:10:18,085 don't know who I'm going to vote for. Zac, what's the 215 00:10:18,151 --> 00:10:20,254 deal? We've been doing podcasts about this all 216 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:24,958 summer. Why are so many people not sure about this? 217 00:10:25,025 --> 00:10:27,327 What we thought was going to be a very high profile 218 00:10:27,394 --> 00:10:29,329 race for governor. >> Because those 48% make 219 00:10:29,396 --> 00:10:31,698 up a lot of people who don't watch this podcast, 220 00:10:31,765 --> 00:10:34,568 so they are not as informed. There are a lot of people 221 00:10:34,635 --> 00:10:37,838 who don't pay attention to politics until the very end 222 00:10:37,905 --> 00:10:40,707 there. I just got the first campaign flier in my 223 00:10:40,774 --> 00:10:43,243 mailbox this morning. They're starting to come. 224 00:10:43,310 --> 00:10:45,546 Those people will follow along. Another thing that 225 00:10:45,612 --> 00:10:48,215 happens in primaries pretty regularly is people wait to 226 00:10:48,282 --> 00:10:50,617 see if there is a frontrunner. They don't 227 00:10:50,684 --> 00:10:53,153 like to waste their vote on someone who will not win, 228 00:10:53,220 --> 00:10:55,589 or they're going to say, well, I like this person, 229 00:10:55,656 --> 00:10:58,058 but they're in fourth place and they're not polling 230 00:10:58,125 --> 00:11:00,327 very high. Why would I throw it behind them? Who's 231 00:11:00,394 --> 00:11:03,030 my next favorite? Which is another good thing that the 232 00:11:03,096 --> 00:11:05,232 Marquette poll does is they do. Who is your next 233 00:11:05,299 --> 00:11:08,168 favorite in line? Another thing to look at is Tom. 234 00:11:08,235 --> 00:11:09,903 Tiffany is unopposed in the Republican primary. There's 235 00:11:09,970 --> 00:11:12,105 still 30% undecided there. >> Now they're. 236 00:11:12,172 --> 00:11:14,341 >> Finding they're going to vote for the Republican. 237 00:11:14,408 --> 00:11:17,477 But I think you can take that 30%, put it over and 238 00:11:17,544 --> 00:11:19,613 compare it to the 48% for the Democrats and go, okay, 239 00:11:19,680 --> 00:11:22,416 there's just a lot of people that either aren't 240 00:11:22,482 --> 00:11:24,551 tuned in yet, or they're waiting to the last minute 241 00:11:24,618 --> 00:11:26,620 to figure out who is actually the frontrunner. 242 00:11:26,687 --> 00:11:29,523 Who do I trust to be the candidate for my my 243 00:11:29,590 --> 00:11:31,859 favorite party? >> A large portion of 244 00:11:31,925 --> 00:11:33,327 Wisconsinites have just been living their lives 245 00:11:33,393 --> 00:11:36,129 this year, it turns out, and we'll turn out. 246 00:11:36,196 --> 00:11:40,133 >> Kudos to them. >> Kudos to them. So what 247 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:44,071 about the candidates who are toward the bottom of 248 00:11:44,137 --> 00:11:47,808 this polling? Joel Brennan and Kelda. Roys Brennan at 249 00:11:47,875 --> 00:11:52,779 5%. Roys at 2%. Where does that leave them? Rich, I'll 250 00:11:53,647 --> 00:11:56,783 go to you first. What do you think? 251 00:11:58,252 --> 00:12:02,155 >> Well, I mean, it leaves them in the position that 252 00:12:02,222 --> 00:12:05,092 they've been in for a while. They're just towards the 253 00:12:05,158 --> 00:12:07,528 bottom of the heap in terms of the polling we've seen. 254 00:12:07,594 --> 00:12:10,430 So ultimately, they and their supporters and their 255 00:12:10,497 --> 00:12:12,833 donors have decisions to make, whether they stay in 256 00:12:12,900 --> 00:12:15,903 the race or whether they drop out and endorse 257 00:12:15,969 --> 00:12:19,773 someone like a Crowley or a hang or a Barnes or whoever. 258 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:24,211 So, you know, I I've never been in that position. I 259 00:12:24,278 --> 00:12:28,081 don't know what all it you have to think about. 260 00:12:28,148 --> 00:12:30,951 They've clearly invested a lot of time and resources 261 00:12:31,018 --> 00:12:33,754 into their races thus far. So maybe they won't drop 262 00:12:33,820 --> 00:12:37,024 out. But at some point you would think that those are 263 00:12:37,090 --> 00:12:39,059 conversations happening within the campaigns. 264 00:12:39,126 --> 00:12:43,230 >> It seems like they are saying we have money. And 265 00:12:43,297 --> 00:12:45,766 if, you know, sharing their own internal polling, if 266 00:12:45,832 --> 00:12:50,304 voters get to know us, they like us. And so a lot of 267 00:12:50,904 --> 00:12:53,540 race left to run from their point of view. Joel Brennan 268 00:12:53,607 --> 00:12:56,476 is actually running probably the most negative 269 00:12:56,543 --> 00:12:59,413 ads I've seen in the primary, where he lists all 270 00:12:59,479 --> 00:13:02,482 the sort of front runner candidates and explains 271 00:13:02,549 --> 00:13:07,221 kind of explicitly why they can't win in November. His 272 00:13:07,287 --> 00:13:10,557 words, Anya, I mean, what's going on with Joel 273 00:13:10,624 --> 00:13:12,759 Brennan's decision there? >> Yeah, I mean, you're 274 00:13:12,826 --> 00:13:15,729 right. I think it is a kind of tonal shift. We've 275 00:13:15,796 --> 00:13:17,898 talked about some of these, you know, attacks on social 276 00:13:17,965 --> 00:13:20,701 media, but this is a really kind of negative ad. It has 277 00:13:20,767 --> 00:13:24,538 the, you know, the color tint over the like the 278 00:13:24,605 --> 00:13:26,707 opponents that you normally kind of see more in a 279 00:13:26,773 --> 00:13:30,010 general. And I think it goes to this kind of game 280 00:13:30,077 --> 00:13:33,614 that voters tend to play in competitive primaries in 281 00:13:33,680 --> 00:13:35,482 such a swing state like Wisconsin, where again, you 282 00:13:35,549 --> 00:13:38,552 are not taking for granted that the winner of a 283 00:13:38,619 --> 00:13:40,654 primary is going to win the general, as might happen in 284 00:13:40,721 --> 00:13:42,689 other states where Democratic voters right now 285 00:13:42,756 --> 00:13:45,425 are like playing 3D chess. They are not just trying to 286 00:13:45,492 --> 00:13:47,628 identify who is the candidate that I support, 287 00:13:47,694 --> 00:13:49,663 but who is the candidate that my neighbors are going 288 00:13:49,730 --> 00:13:52,533 to support. And so therefore, how can I make 289 00:13:52,599 --> 00:13:55,402 sure kind of get the most out of my vote? And so he's 290 00:13:55,469 --> 00:13:57,671 speaking to that electability question and 291 00:13:57,738 --> 00:14:00,941 the most electable. And then when you do have 48% 292 00:14:01,008 --> 00:14:02,843 undecided, there may be an argument to be made, or 293 00:14:02,910 --> 00:14:05,646 he's trying to make the argument of like, well, 294 00:14:05,712 --> 00:14:07,848 what would happen if all 48% of them went to me? 295 00:14:07,915 --> 00:14:10,851 Right? That's a lot of extra voters. So yes, he's 296 00:14:10,918 --> 00:14:13,987 now 3% to Fran Hong's, you know, 27% to Mandela Barnes 297 00:14:14,054 --> 00:14:17,524 is 18%. But if he gets half of those undecideds, he's a 298 00:14:17,591 --> 00:14:19,793 front runner. And so maybe he's kind of banking on 299 00:14:19,860 --> 00:14:22,663 that. >> Marquette did look at 300 00:14:23,363 --> 00:14:26,266 well, they looked at a lot, but they had some head to 301 00:14:26,333 --> 00:14:28,502 head matchups in there. If you look at those, you get 302 00:14:28,569 --> 00:14:31,138 a slightly different story of the Democrats in the 303 00:14:31,205 --> 00:14:33,774 race right now, not including David Crowley 304 00:14:33,841 --> 00:14:37,211 only Mandela Barnes defeats Tom Tiffany in head to head 305 00:14:37,277 --> 00:14:41,215 matchup by a 44 to 40% split among registered 306 00:14:41,281 --> 00:14:45,552 voters. Tiffany leads Francesca Hong 43 to 40%, 307 00:14:45,619 --> 00:14:50,190 so a plus four for Mandela Barnes, minus three for 308 00:14:50,824 --> 00:14:54,127 Francesca Hong. Zac. I mean, I think it kind of begs the 309 00:14:54,194 --> 00:14:58,131 question, why did the establishment not rally 310 00:14:58,198 --> 00:15:01,168 around Mandela Barnes? >> Well, I think that's the 311 00:15:01,235 --> 00:15:02,769 question Mandela Barnes campaign is asking and 312 00:15:02,836 --> 00:15:05,105 saying you might have made a mistake if you are 313 00:15:05,172 --> 00:15:06,773 looking for a Hong alternative. That's 314 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,243 certainly what they are pushing right now. But I 315 00:15:09,309 --> 00:15:11,578 think one of the distinctions is Barnes came 316 00:15:11,645 --> 00:15:13,981 in with the most name recognition of everyone due 317 00:15:14,047 --> 00:15:18,352 to his 2022 U.S. Senate run, his close loss to Ron 318 00:15:18,418 --> 00:15:20,521 Johnson. And it was always a question because he also 319 00:15:20,587 --> 00:15:23,457 had the highest negatives that came with that 320 00:15:23,524 --> 00:15:26,960 hangover from that election. And he started running this 321 00:15:27,027 --> 00:15:29,563 race as the front runner. He introduced himself as 322 00:15:29,630 --> 00:15:32,165 saying, I'm the one to take on Tom Tiffany. He did the 323 00:15:32,232 --> 00:15:35,002 thing where he ignores the rest of the field and kind 324 00:15:35,068 --> 00:15:37,070 of pretends they weren't there. And then partway 325 00:15:37,137 --> 00:15:39,206 through this election, I think he or his campaign 326 00:15:39,273 --> 00:15:41,975 realized, oh no, Francesca Hong is there. I do have to 327 00:15:42,042 --> 00:15:44,945 take her seriously. So he kind of had to shift his 328 00:15:45,012 --> 00:15:47,080 tone to talking about his competitors, where I think 329 00:15:47,147 --> 00:15:49,716 at first he was running the 2022 U.S. Senate primary, 330 00:15:49,783 --> 00:15:51,885 where all of his competitors dropped out at 331 00:15:51,952 --> 00:15:54,087 the end, and he basically had the field to himself. 332 00:15:54,154 --> 00:15:56,890 That didn't happen. So it is a question of, did the 333 00:15:56,957 --> 00:15:59,193 rest of the field say you've had your chance and 334 00:15:59,259 --> 00:16:01,962 you couldn't make your case? Now we're going to go with 335 00:16:02,029 --> 00:16:04,831 someone else. Or is it simply that they think his 336 00:16:04,898 --> 00:16:07,034 negatives are too high, despite the head to head 337 00:16:07,100 --> 00:16:09,069 matchup? Looking good. So it is a legitimate question 338 00:16:09,136 --> 00:16:11,605 for Evers. It's a legitimate question for 339 00:16:11,672 --> 00:16:14,308 voters out there of how should they take all these 340 00:16:14,374 --> 00:16:16,043 different pieces of information. And that's 341 00:16:16,109 --> 00:16:19,513 what happens when you have this many centrist or 342 00:16:19,580 --> 00:16:21,315 moderate candidates all trying to claim that one 343 00:16:21,381 --> 00:16:23,617 mantel is they can divide the field, which is what 344 00:16:23,684 --> 00:16:25,619 they're doing. >> And now. 345 00:16:25,686 --> 00:16:27,821 >> Mandela Barnes is attacking the establishment, 346 00:16:27,888 --> 00:16:31,358 which was definitely his friend of four years ago. 347 00:16:31,425 --> 00:16:34,995 We should talk real quick before we wrap up here 348 00:16:35,062 --> 00:16:38,265 today about what happens with all these tens of 349 00:16:38,332 --> 00:16:42,603 thousands of voters who cast absentee ballots and 350 00:16:42,669 --> 00:16:46,707 maybe want to change those ballots? A short answer can 351 00:16:46,773 --> 00:16:48,575 they know? >> Well. 352 00:16:51,311 --> 00:16:54,214 >> Not at this moment, yeah. >> According to Wisconsin 353 00:16:54,281 --> 00:16:56,617 Election Commission guidance, the the answer is 354 00:16:56,683 --> 00:17:00,721 no. That guidance was issued voted on in July 9th, 355 00:17:00,787 --> 00:17:04,491 issued on July 10th. Ana you had a well. 356 00:17:04,558 --> 00:17:07,094 >> Well, yes. So, you know, truly, moments before we 357 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,930 started taping, I got sent motions that were filed in 358 00:17:09,997 --> 00:17:12,900 court. So there is now a lawsuit about this. I did 359 00:17:12,966 --> 00:17:14,835 not have a chance to open those documents. And so we 360 00:17:14,902 --> 00:17:18,138 won't talk them talk about them today. 361 00:17:18,205 --> 00:17:20,607 >> But I. Suspect that. >> We'll talk about this is 362 00:17:20,674 --> 00:17:23,277 wrong. so and that's something 363 00:17:23,343 --> 00:17:25,913 that's going to need to get resolved pretty quickly. 364 00:17:25,979 --> 00:17:28,081 The primary is August 11th. >> And so for people who 365 00:17:28,148 --> 00:17:30,918 you are talking tens of thousands of people who 366 00:17:30,984 --> 00:17:34,154 voted, 8000 people have now voted absentee. So that's 367 00:17:34,221 --> 00:17:37,524 definitely something that resolved through the courts, 368 00:17:37,591 --> 00:17:39,660 potentially. But as of right now, those votes 369 00:17:39,726 --> 00:17:42,129 cannot be counted in this very quickly shifting race 370 00:17:42,196 --> 00:17:43,764 for governor. >> Well, they're counted, 371 00:17:43,830 --> 00:17:45,666 but they just can't be disqualified. And I'm. 372 00:17:45,732 --> 00:17:47,367 >> Glad you corrected me there. 373 00:17:47,434 --> 00:17:50,404 >> They will absolutely. >> Actually be counted no 374 00:17:50,470 --> 00:17:52,773 matter who you voted them for. But changing your mind 375 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,876 is not a reason to to recast your ballot. 376 00:17:55,943 --> 00:17:58,545 According to Wisconsin Elections Commission 377 00:17:58,612 --> 00:18:00,914 guidance. So that's all the time we have for today. 378 00:18:00,981 --> 00:18:04,218 Thanks for joining us. This has been inside Wisconsin 379 00:18:04,284 --> 00:18:07,354 politics. Be sure to follow us on PBS wisconsin.org. 380 00:18:07,421 --> 00:18:09,656 WPR.org, YouTube, or wherever you get your 381 00:18:09,723 --> 00:18:11,391 podcasts.