President Donald Trump returns to Wisconsin.
Candidates file nomination papers for governor, and
the Wisconsin Supreme Court will hear an appeal of a
redistricting case after all. Let's talk about a
busy week of campaign news. This is inside Wisconsin
politics.
I'm Shawn Johnson, along with my colleagues,
Rich Kremer in Eau Claire and Zac Schultz and Anya
van Wagtendonk here in Madison. Hey, everyone.
Hello. So, Zac, as we record this program right
now, we just know that President Trump is coming
to Wisconsin. It's a big deal anytime the president
comes to your state. But it seems to be an especially
big deal now. What's different about this visit
here in this point in 2026? >> Well, this is campaign
visit. I mean, in the past, you could look at the
president's visit. It's more about himself. This
time, you can kind of look at it in terms of what does
it mean for the fall or in one particular race in
northern Wisconsin that Rich will, I'm sure, be
talking about what it means for that primary in August.
But specifically, we're Republicans show up with
them now. We expect them all to be there, all the
big names. But if you look back in history, more on
the Democratic side, there is a history of some
candidates really not sure if they want to sit next to
an unpopular president in a midterm election. In 2010,
President Obama came to Madison. There was a big
question of whether Russ Feingold was going to
appear on the stage. In the end, he did. But all the
weeks leading up to it, his campaign wasn't sure he
might be in Africa. He had some other things going on.
And that was really a political question of does
he want to be seen with him? And he ended up losing that
race. That was the Tea Party wave before it was
just two years ago. President Biden visited
Madison off that disastrous debate performance. Tammy
Baldwin was elsewhere. She didn't come to Madison to
be with the president. That's about campaign
optics. >> We should game out some
of these names who might or might not be there in just
a minute. But Rich, you are the closest to where the
president will be. You're in Eau Claire. He's going
to be in Chippewa County. What's the significance of
where he's going to speak? And, you know, potentially
what he's going to talk about?
>> So Chippewa County kind of serves as a two for a
twofer for the president and for Republicans. So it
is essentially a that has two congressional
districts to the north side of it. We're talking about
the seventh Congressional District. That is the seat
that Tom Tiffany, Congressman Tom Tiffany is
vacating as he runs as a governor for Wisconsin. And
then to the south of that line, it's the third
Congressional District, and that is Republican Derrick
Van Orden. And and he's in the middle of a pretty
competitive reelection campaign. And it's just one
of a small handful of seats that are considered toss
ups. I mean, we're talking across the entire nation,
and he's running against someone who came pretty
close in 2024. Rebecca Cooke she was within three
percentage points in a year that that President Trump
won the the state. So it's a different dynamic now. He
needs all the help he can get. And the white House is
responding in kind. >> And it seems like the
message from the white House has been, we're going
to talk about farmers. We're going to talk about
agriculture in these settings in this district.
Ana what can we make of that?
about sort of the steep odds that the the ruling
party, the the Republican Party is facing right now.
Obviously, the president right now has some of his
lowest approval ratings throughout his time in
office, but farmers in particular have really
helped deliver him victories. I believe in his
last election, he won the vast, vast majority of sort
of farm dependent counties in the country. And yet a
lot of his policies, tariff policies in particular,
have really been connected with some of the pain that
farmers have been feeling. So tariffs that have caused,
you know, weakened overseas markets for for corn and
soy, and then increased prices on steel and
aluminum. So we have seen changes in policies in ways
that are, I think, aimed really directly at trying
to appeal to these farmers. Earlier this week, he
signed an executive order to lower some tariffs on
agricultural equipment in particular. And so now he's
coming to Wisconsin to talk directly to farmers and
kind of try to make sure that that part of his base
is secure. >> But Zac, as you
mentioned, he is not coming for himself. He's not
saying vote for me. He is coming to a county that
straddles a couple districts, including, as
Rich mentioned, our most competitive in Wisconsin.
He's also coming at a time where if you just look at
the latest national poll from Marquette University,
he has a. 19% of voters approve of how he's
handling gas prices, 22% on the cost of living. The
economy's around 30%. His overall rating is at a
record low 38, with disapproval creeping up. Is
that good for someone like Derrick Van Orden?
>> It doesn't help. But I think that the difference
between these Republican candidates specifically and
past like in past examples like Tammy Baldwin or Russ
Feingold, is they the Republicans need this area,
and they need Trump's voters to come out when he
is not on the ballot. Republicans across the
state struggle to get turnout, especially in
western and northern Wisconsin. That is the Maga
base of this state in the seventh and the third. And
without those voters, they could really struggle in
the fall. So they actually need to attach themselves
even closer to Donald Trump at this point, even if it
looks like, politically speaking, it may not be the
smartest move because of his terrible numbers on a
lot of things. And I'd like to meet the 19% of people
who think gas prices are good right now, unless they
are all biking or not driving themselves. There's
really no one I've ever talked to in a while that
says gas prices are doing great.
kind of like, you know, biting their lip a little
bit when they say that they're happy with that.
Rich, what do you make of this visit here?
>> Well, I wanted to go back and mention the
seventh Congressional District. I failed to
mention that. Well, so this is the seat that Tom
Tiffany is giving up to run for governor. But there's a
big Republican primary going on right now up there.
And Michael Alfonso is who is Shawn Duffy US
Transportation Secretary Shawn Duffy's son in law
has already been endorsed by President Donald Trump.
So some of the Republicans, other Republicans in that
race, are trying to use Alfonso's connections
against him. So I guess Trump coming to here, if
Alfonso shows up, which I would expect he would, you
get the president talking about this person that a
lot of people in northern Wisconsin might not know
about yet, and also takes a little bit of the wind out
of the sails of the Republican challengers that
haven't dropped out yet. After that endorsement came
way back in January. >> Yeah. So let's talk
about a few of the people who might or might not be
at this event. And depending on when you watch
or listen to this show, you're going to know
whether we got these answers right. So cut us
some slack if we get anything wrong. Okay.
Michael Alfonso, you mentioned it's in the
seventh district. He is kind of the Trump candidate
that that's his thing. So I think in that conservative
district, I would be very shocked if he was not there
to cheer on the president. I think we seem to be
hinting at we expect Derrick Van Orden to be
there. You know, a very strong Trump supporter
going for that Trump voter who might stay home. How
about Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for
governor running in 5050 Wisconsin. Anyone want to
take a stab at that? >> I think he's got to be
there. I don't know why he wouldn't. It's next to his
district. He's already tied himself to Trump over and
over and over. And he, like Van Orton, needs that
turnout in northern Wisconsin that Trump can
deliver that really no one else can. So it would be
really odd, considering his past moves on election
denials and all the other stuff where he's this
closely related to Trump, including just voting to in
Congress, not end the war in Iran, supporting Trump
again in that area in a very political fashion in
terms of like popularity. So I would be surprised if
he wasn't there. >> Any any dissenters there.
We think that Tiffany's probably going to be there.
>> I assume so. >> Well, I mean.
>> Getting the endorsement I think was like a really
big deal for the Tiffany campaign, right? It made
him sort of the heir apparent to the Republican
path to the governorship. But he has been trying to
thread this needle a little bit. And, you know, as
Democrats try to really closely tie him to Trump to
say that he is yes, he's aligned with those politics
and some of those value systems, but he is not sort
of in lockstep with Trump, and he doesn't always vote
with him. 100% of the time. He made a sort of point of
that at this appearance that he made in Madison a
week or two ago. And so he wants to kind of show that
he yes, he's in line with those values, but also he
will put Wisconsin first. And so how does he thread
that needle at the visit? Again, maybe our viewers
will already know and we'll be waiting to see.
>> Right. Rich. >> I'm sorry. I stepped on
what Anya was saying, but the I have seen some folks
online point out, well, Tiffany has taken some
small little stances against the war, you know,
saying it needs to be wrapped up soon, etc. so
they're arguing. Well, that's him putting a little
bit of daylight between himself and the president.
But as we know, he has been pretty much in lockstep for
a long time. So I do expect him there. But there's a
part of me that that is very contrarian and wants
to push back just because you all say he's going to
be there. But so if he's not, maybe it would be
because he's trying to appeal to the general
election audience. >> All right, well, now
that I got the three of you on the record and I didn't
take a position, I think we should move on to the next
topic. The candidate filing deadline. In the race for
governor, you had candidates for governor,
Attorney general, Congress, Assembly, Senate, you name
it, filing their nomination papers in Madison ahead of
this week's deadline. Nothing is final yet, Anya,
but which you should explain to us. But we knew
going in, there's a big field of people who said
they were going to run for governor. What is sort of
the lay of the land right now?
million caveats about the various steps of review
that they will go through with the Elections
Commission. But as of right now, eight Democrats have
filed their papers, two Republicans. And so that's
a field of ten. Tom Tiffany sort of being the again,
the kind of obvious frontrunner on the
Republican side, less of an obvious frontrunner on the
Democratic side. And then the big open question going
into the filing deadline was whether Kirk Bangstad,
the owner of Minocqua Brewing Company, this kind
of liberal activist and perhaps social media
provocateur, we might say whether he was going to get
his papers in on time. He declared his candidacy just
a few weeks ago. He got his signatures in. It seems
that about a quarter of them, if not more, are not
valid. So they didn't contain either the right
voter information for the signers. And then about 40
pages of them didn't have the right date of the
election. So he has until Sunday to cure those. That
is a tall order that involves filing affidavits.
He can't just like go out and get 500 new signatures.
So that's the big question. And then the elections
commission will kind of vote and see whether
everyone else qualifies. So as of right now, it seems
that there are seven qualified Democrats, two
qualified Republicans. And then the Kirk Bangstad
question, right. >> And it's a big question,
not only for Kirk Bangstad, it seems, but I mean, we're
talking about what kind of a primary this is going to
be, because let's say you're a candidate who
wants to occupy that left flank of a seven candidate
Democratic primary like Francesca Hong. Kirk
Bangstad comes in and is attacking you from the left
saying you're not left enough. He could pull away
a few votes and it could make all the difference in
a primary this big. Zac. >> It's possible. I mean,
we are talking about a primary. If we get seven
candidates going all the way to August, that, you
know, it's not unreasonable to think that high 20
percentage might be the winner if things get split
pretty evenly. It really depends on whether those
last 3 or 4 candidates at the bottom of the barrel
are pulling 2%, or if they're pulling 5 or 6%,
because those can add up to a big enough chunk of the
electorate that they can swing an election towards
the top when there may not be anyone that's really run
away with it. So far, being dead is not something that
most of the Democrats are taking seriously. They look
at him as more of an online troll. Provocateur is a
good, polite word. They don't always use polite
words when they're talking about him. Republicans love
having him in the conversation because he's
just more ammunition for them to throw at Democrats.
Democrats would like him out of the conversation for
that very reason. >> So I guess I assumed
when we were looking at this race way back in, I
don't know, January maybe last year, even that by
June, when it comes time to file signatures, maybe that
hurdle right there would thin the field a bit. And
it basically did not. Do you all think that this
field will be smaller before people vote in
August? That you'll have some candidates say, look,
I know I'm on the ballot, but I'm dropping out of
this race and I'm throwing my support behind someone
else. Rich, you want to take a stab at this one?
>> Well, I would you know, you would expect that the
field would shrink a little bit. But also this is an
open seat. So it's kind of a different ball game. And
you know, why not keep going. We've got candidates
that in polling have been hovering around 1%, you
know, single digits essentially. And they're
still in it. And I can't help but think of 2022. It
was a US Senate race against Ron Johnson. And
you had the majority. You know, you had the
Democratic candidates all drop out all at once and
endorse Mandela Barnes, who is now running for governor.
But I really don't expect to see anything like that
this go around. I could be wrong, but it just seems
like the cost benefit analysis that they're
they're reviewing these Democratic candidates is
leading them to stay in it. >> And by contrast, you
know, in 2018, the last time that there was a big
open Democratic primary for governor, it was an even
more crowded field. I think there were two drop outs,
and it was still a larger field than it currently is.
And Evers emerged from that governor Tony Evers, with a
decent chunk of but not a majority of the votes. He
didn't have more than 50%. And so we could be seeing
sort of a similar dynamic throughout the summer. One
of the big questions, of course, is who can maintain
the money that it takes to kind of get through to
August, but especially if you see yourself as kind of
standing out from the pack of like occupying a lane to
yourself, why not kind of keep running in that way?
To your point, will there be then when people do
start dropping out? And I do think we're going to see
some before the primaries, but there's going to be
some trading, like there's going to be backdoor
discussions. I know everyone hates talking
about how those happen in politics, you know, to
trade my support for you. And so that'll be really
interesting to see who wants to kind of give it up
this time in exchange for something else down the
line. >> Yeah. The two things to
look at ahead of those are one staffing. If we see,
because we get the emails, the press releases, we know
who their campaign staffers are, I would never expect
the general public to have an idea of who these people
are. But if we see changes in staffing, then that
means they don't have the money to pay them, or those
people are moving on to a new race or a new position.
It really doesn't cost much to run for governor in
Wisconsin. It's gas money, which I know is more than
it has been in past years, but it's still it's not
that difficult, and it's not even that difficult to
get 2000 signatures. Quite honestly. We have lots of
candidates. You just go out and knock doors and anyone
will sign something we put in front of them. The other
thing to look at is, is there a reason that
consolidation might from doing something in a
race, and if they actually have enough support to
throw behind someone else and kind of make that move
or bargain for them, they almost have, have, have
enough leverage to like, say, I can deliver my
voters or my name comes with enough people to make
it worth this effort. >> The one thing I'd add to
everything that you all have said is that I think
that 22 experience could discourage some people to
stay, to drop out. What I mean is that the idea in
2022 was, we're all going to get behind this one
candidate. Everybody put aside your political
ambitions and Bakke Mandela Barnes it didn't work out
for Mandela Barnes, you know, and so those
candidates who dropped out maybe look at that and say,
hey, why not me? So they could be having a similar
calculation this time around real quick before we
wrap up. And we'd give more time to this if this was a
bigger decision. But we have to address this
Wisconsin Supreme Court decision. Briefly, Rich,
they dealt with this redistricting case on the
congressional map. Was it a momentous decision or
incremental? You know, you tell me.
>> It was not momentous. People might get excited
when they see, oh, they're taking up this
redistricting appeal, but really what they were
addressing is whether or not a three judge panel
that they appointed made the right decision in
dismissing this lawsuit. What's interesting about
this lawsuit is it's not arguing that the the
congressional map is a partizan gerrymander. It's
saying, no, this is an anti-competitive
gerrymander. So a different kind of nuanced approach.
But ultimately they want new maps. So this doesn't
mean that they're going to be issuing any decisions
anytime soon. It's it's it would be shocking if the
anything came before the elections this year.
>> Yeah. Never, never say never in politics, but it
does not feel like at this moment the kind of
redistricting moves you're seeing in other states
around the country right now. That's all the time we
have for today. Thanks for joining us. This has been
inside Wisconsin politics. wisconsin.org. WPR.org,
YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.