So going into your
national polling
in 2026 congressional elections
you found that
among likely voters
53% of respondents
would vote for Democrats
with 44%
voting for Republicans.
Does that result
surprise you?
It's a large result.
That's a nine-point gap.
That's very substantial.
Interestingly
with registered voters
it's a five-point gap
a little bit smaller.
The difference between
those is Democrats now
are more likely to say
they're certain
they're going to
vote in the fall
by about seven points
more likely, in this
national poll.
So you've got both
the preference for Democrats
and the motivation
to turn out.
And those two
things together
with the likely vote numbers
drives up
that Democratic margin
quite a bit.
So what is driving
this sentiment
among respondents
certain to vote?
Is it all about Donald Trump
and how he is governing?
I think it's
enormously about Trump
though Trump's overall job
approval is not much less
than it was recently.
In fact, it's
exactly the same
as in our September poll.
But
the concern about inflation
and the economy
and the belief
that Donald Trump
is not addressing
those problems well
those are things
that hurt the president
but hurt his party
and help Democrats at
this point.