information. Appreciate it. Thanks, Fred. Reproductive
rights were said to be a primary driver for voters in Tuesday's
election. But were they what was? We turn to UW lacrosse
political scientist Anthony Chergosky for his take. And
thanks for being here, Professo. Thank you. Is it fair to say
that the main driver of Donald Trump's win was voters
unhappiness with the economy? >> I think so, just general
dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. And there could
be different factors driving that dissatisfaction. But when
we look across the country, there was this uniform swing
towards the Trump ticket across all kinds of geographic areas,
across all kinds of demographic. So it tells me that this
election was bigger than any one specific region, any one
specific geographic area, any one specific demographic. Though
there are some demographics that do stand out as particularly
significant. In general, this just seems to be a broad
repudiation of the Biden administration.
>> Yeah. So you're quoted as saying that the results
underscore Trump's ability to make largely uniform gains
across all types of geographic areas and all types of
demographics. You say some of those demographics stand out,
like what? >> The Latino vote. When we look
at areas with a concentrated Latino vote, we see a stark
trend towards Donald Trump. So those states with high levels of
the Latino population that is a big part of the post-election
analysis, I think. But of cours, Wisconsin, very much a majority
white state. So the racial and ethnic politics of Wisconsin are
different than, say, a state like Arizona or Nevada. So we
did see Wisconsin follow slightly different trends than
other states. In fact, the swing towards Trump was not as
substantial in Wisconsin as in some other states. So I think
all of that is relevant when we do that post-election analysis.
>> Were you surprised at all by the gains on Trump's part
nationwide? But even the smaller ones in Wisconsin?
>> Yeah, he did make some small gains in Wisconsin, ultimately
enough to put him over the top here, but it was still a really
close election. And now, Fred, we get to say that the last
three presidential elections in Wisconsin were each decided by
fewer than 30,000 votes. So Wisconsin entered this election
season as the ultimate swing state. I think we emerge from
this election season as the ultimate swing state. There is
always talk about states becoming swing states or states
that were swing states no longer being swing states. Speculation
about, say, if Wisconsin goes the direction of Ohio, going
more Republican goes the direction of Virginia, going
more Democratic. But I think we're right back where we
started, Wisconsin being that key swing state.
Milwaukee continues to edge toward blue in parts of it,
Donald Trump gained in places like Madison on the UW campus,
who are his voters helping him make those kinds of gains?
>> There's a lot of talk about young men, and the gender gap is
a big storyline in this election. We've seen a gender
gap in American elections for years and years and years where
women are more likely to go for the Democratic Party, and men
are more likely to go for the Republican Party. And we see
that gender gap across all ages. But there are signs that the
gender gap is particularly pronounced among young voters.
And this fits into the lose buy less motto that Republicans had
when it comes to Madison and Milwaukee. They know they're
going to lose those areas, but they wanted to lose them by less
than they did before, and it seems like they accomplished
that. obviously, again, was a big
consideration. But some seem to be surprised by how many women
actually then did go ahead and vote for Donald Trump.
>> It's a big part of the story, right? Because ultimately the
Harris team could have benefited from an even larger gender gap.
The big question going into this election, just how big that
gender gap would be, the exit polls give us some indication. I
think there's going to be more data on that. That gives us a
clearer vision of what exactly that gender gap was. But watch
that gender gap among young voters. I think that's going to
be really important in upcoming elections.
>> So in your neck of the woods in the third Congressional
District, Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden won handily.
What kind of coattails did he get from Trump? And what was
that race about? >> Yeah, as expected, Derrick
Van Orden won by a bit. This was anticipated to be the most
competitive U.S. House election in Wisconsin, and indeed, it was
a big part of the election was the spending on the Democratic
Party side. Rebecca Cooke enjoyed much more spending to
support her candidacy than the Democratic candidate in 2022,
Brad Pfaff. So I think that contributed to the
competitiveness of this electio. Ultimately, Van Orden won this
election by roughly the same margin that he did in 2022, and
you can bet that the parties are wasting no time in looking ahead
to 2026, as this is, I'm sure, once again anticipated to be the
most competitive U.S. House district in Wisconsin. I think
it's going to stay that way for at least the next election cycle
or two. Rebecca Cooke did really well
compared to the top of the ticket candidates?
>> Yes. Here in the cross County and in some of the surrounding
counties that I've been able to look at, Rebecca Cooke did
better than Kamala Harris. In fact, there are places where
Rebecca Cooke did better than Tammy Baldwin, and that is no
easy feat in Wisconsin politics, because we know that Baldwin has
a strong track record of electoral success. So I think
that people are going to emerge from this election with a
positive attitude towards the Cooke campaign. She didn't quite
win, but she was able, in key situations to do better, maybe
even substantially better than the other Democrats on the
ballot. ahead. Two years.
>> Yep, yep. Do we get a rematch? I mean, we're always
looking ahead to the next election as as political
get a rematch? I mean, when Derrick Van Orden did really
well in the 2020 election, he came up a little short, but it
was clear that he could run for 2022 and do quite well. That
year. Are we in the same situation right now? I think
there's going to be a lot of focus on this congressional
district moving forward. I don't think the 2024 election does
anything to change the fact that this third congressional
district is a key one in district is a key one in