Madison for "Here& Now". I'm Steven Potter.
>> As so often befalls Wisconsin, this election is a
squeaker virtually tied at the top of the ticket heading into
November 5th. We turn to Charles Franklin, director of the
Marquette Law School poll out this week with his last poll
before election Day. And thanks for being here. Glad to be here.
So let's take a look right away at your results. A Democratic
vice president, Kamala Harris, is supported by 50% of likely
voters and a Republican former president Donald Trump is
supported by 49% in the head to head. How has this tightened
since your last poll? >> It's tightened a little bit
from a four point Harris lead in late September to this one point
lead, but over the course of the year, we've done seven polls.
Not one of them has been outside the margin of error. This one is
no exception to that. Are there any trends to point to that
suggest a winner here? >> Yeah.
pushing in different directions on issues. Trump has a little
bit of an advantage. 46% say he's better on the issue that's
most important to them. 43% say the same of Harris. But on
personal characteristics, Harris is seen as by a considerable
margin, having the right temperament to be president,
being honest and being intelligent. Trump has an
advantage on having a record of past accomplishments, so on the
on the balance, the personality side is leaning strongly to
Harris. But on the issue side, it leans to Trump. And then the
last thing is that Joe Biden remains unpopular. Just 42 or
43% job approval. All this past year. And people think their
financial situation is worse off than it was under Trump in this
latest poll, you surveyed 5% more Republicans than Democrats.
>> Does that change the result or get weighted somehow? No.
>> We've seen over the course of the year, we've seen Republican
advantages of 3 to 5%, and it's been about 4% the last couple of
polls. This final poll was a 4% in late September. It's a 5%
now. This May reflect a genuine shift in Partizanship because
we've seen it all year. It was a little bit tighter a year ago.
In November of 2023, but throughout this year we've seen
this little bit larger than in the past. Republican advantage.
So we'll find out on Election Day if that squares with the
vote. But it's not an an aberration of a single poll.
It's been a consistent pattern throughout the year.
>> There's so many things to talk about here, but one of them
is the 5% undecided. I can't believe there's anybody
>> You'd think that especially this late in the game. But when
you look at who is undecided, it actually makes sense.
Independents, pure independents who don't feel closer to either
party. About 20% undecided people who dislike both
candidates, 35 to 40% undecided and Republicans with an
unfavorable view of Trump. That's 13% of Republicans, about
40% undecided. The crossover of Republicans voting for Harris is
about 7%. So that's a little bit more than half of the
Republicans with an unfavorable view of Trump.
>> There's another number here. Third party candidates combined.
Take 9% in your poll. Now it's not expected that that would
stand during actual voting. But could that tip this race.
>> Well it certainly could. And it's the biggest surprise to me
in the poll. We've been seeing third party voting going down
all year. It was 6% at the end of September. Now it's 9%. I
think in part it still reflects some reluctance on the part of
voters who are not thrilled with either choice. But I'd be
surprised if it's that high. We were at 5.5% in 2016, and just
1.5% third party vote in 2020. So I've been expecting that to
be below five and a half. But this last poll showed a little
uptick for Kennedy and a tiny uptick for the other third party
candidates. race in Wisconsin. Your results
show that Tammy Baldwin is at 51% to 49% for Eric Hovde. Now,
this is inside the margin of error. This is quite a
tightening. Since your last poll.
ahead by 6 or 7 in the last poll. So down to two now other
polling has shown it a close race. And the campaigns have
said they think their polling shows it close. So I think the
2% is probably reasonable given the what's happened in other
people's polls. And there has been some shifts in the
perception of Hovde in particular.
this race? we've asked people which
candidate would work harder to solve national problems. Baldwin
had been leading in this, but this time Hovde is one point
ahead of her on that question. So it suggests some messaging is
has sunk in. Also, who would better represent the interests
of Wisconsin? Baldwin had had a nine point lead earlier on that.
It's down to about a four point lead now. I think in some sense
this is just the tightening of the race, but it also does
reflect some of the messages of each campaign beginning to work
through. vote. And the measure of
enthusiasm. It's at 66%, but it's varied by party for
Democrats, 75% are very enthusiastic, and that is up 4%
from your last poll. How historically high is that or is
it? historically high levels, but it
is quite high. Earlier in the year, Republicans were 10 to 15
points more enthusiastic than Democrats than Biden dropped out
and Democrats caught up and then surpassed Republicans.
Republican enthusiasm is still pretty high. It's just that
Democrats have pushed a little bit past them.
>> So Republican enthusiasm sits at 66%. One thing I really want
to get to is to ask you on election night, as the returns
come in, what in Wisconsin will you be watching for?
>> It's always the margin of the vote coming in in Milwaukee and
in Dane County. That's where Democrats run up their huge
margins in those two counties. The wow counties around
Milwaukee, do those show a further decline in Republican
strength? We expect the Republican to win, but maybe by
less. And then I think the sleeper is what happens in the
north and west of the state. Trump gained a lot of votes from
12 to 16, but in 20 he basically broke even with where he had
been in 2016. But there's potential for a surge in Trump
votes there if that happens. That's good news for him. If it
fails to happen, then we're looking at the southeast to see
if these trends that we've seen in the Milwaukee suburbs and in
Milwaukee and Dane County hold Milwaukee and Dane County hold