They're not coming in to vote. They just aren't.
>> In the latest Marquette Law School poll, Democratic
candidates Harris and Baldwin are up on their Republican
challengers. We get the numbers now from poll director Charles
Franklin. And Charles, thanks very much for being here. Good
to be here. So as we headlined Kamala Harris polls, 52% to 48%
for Donald Trump. Now these are the same numbers as last month.
So nothing's moving the needle. >> Not much in the near term.
Back in July, after Harris first got in the race, it was Trump by
one point with registered voters, Harris by one point with
likely voters. That has moved to a four point Harris lead, which
is then repeated in this latest poll. You know, remember we were
off by four points in 2020. So if you subtract that four
points, we could be dead tied. If we're has have as big an
error as we did in 2020. Of course, I hope that our poll is
more accurate this time. >> So in the US Senate race,
incumbent Tammy Baldwin is at 53% to Eric Hovde, 46%. How does
this compare to your last poll? >> This is an increase. It was a
four point Baldwin lead in early September. 7% now over the whole
course of the campaign, we've seen earlier polls as close as
four or as wide as seven. And we did have one result with likely
voters. That was 50 over 50, though that was early in the
campaign, and we haven't seen a similarly close race there.
>> Do you have any idea what might explain her pulling ahead
like this? >> Well, she's been strong all
year as Democrats quite unified behind her, but also doing well
with independents. In the last two polls, though, she's
increased her advantage with independents. I think that's
helping explain how we've gotten to a four or now a seven point
lead. Hovde on the other hand, is unifying Republicans so
there's less of a crossover vote than there was way back in the
early spring. interesting question about
to each other about politics. And 46% said they had. Now, you
note that this is higher than in the past two election cycles.
Does this surprise you, though, given the rhetoric out there?
>> Not given the rhetoric you would expect. We're more
polarized by a whole lot of measures, but we've asked this.
We originally asked it just before the gubernatorial recall
in 2012 and then in 16 and in 20. And those three times we've
asked have been 34, 35 and 36% stop talking. So a ten point
increase this year, I think, does tell us a little bit about
a more polarized, more personalized politics.
>> So on enthusiasm to vote, which is a super important
measure. The overall enthusiasm to vote is very high at 67%,
with Democrats even more so at 71%. And it has jumped the most
for independents, 50% of whom in this latest poll say they are
enthusiastic to vote. >> Yeah, independents had been
lagging in the 30 seconds all year. This is the first time
we've seen a big bump up with them. I think that means, in
part, that they're beginning to tune into the race. Unlike
Partizans, they're not sitting rooting for a candidate since
January and are now getting more engaged. But early in the year,
Republican enthusiasm was well higher than Democratic
enthusiasm. With the change of candidates, Democrats moved up
almost catching Republicans in July, and moved ahead in early
September. Now, Republicans have moved up as well and closed that
gap. A very small Democratic advantage. But now both parties
look as mobilized as they were in 2020. That suggests we'll see
a similarly high turnout in November, as we did in 2020.
>> Talking about the independent vote, when you consider that 61%
of independents say they support Harris, compared to 39% for
Trump, is that an important measure?
measure. There are only about 12% of voters that call
themselves independents that aren't closer to either party.
Independents had favored Trump through the spring, and still
favored Trump by a little bit in July, when Harris was first in
the race. But we now have two polls in a row with independent
support, around 60% for Harris. You always worry with
independents because they can change their mind. They're a
fickle group that because they don't have party loyalties, they
may shift and now could shift again. But seeing two polls in a
row with that significant uptick and strong Harris support, I
think is important and it helps account for why Harris is up by
four points instead of two points or one point.
>> So on the issues Trump wins again on immigration, the
Israel-hamas war and the economy, while Harris wins on
fair and accurate elections, Medicare and Social Security,
abortion policy and health care. And yet the economy, of course,
remains the singular most important issue to voters. But
is the economy as ruinous as the GOP is telling us it is right
now? >> The economy is pretty good.
We've we've seen good job reports and the dockworkers
strike just settled. So there are positive economic
indicators. But the negativity about the economy is still
pretty high. We're getting I think it's about 30% in this
poll, say the economy is doing poorly. Only 38% say it's
excellent or good. So that's a pretty poor picture of the
economy. The fact that people still say the economy is the
most important issue, and that Trump has about an eight point
advantage on that issue, is why this race is still close and why
Donald Trump could still win this race on the most important
issue, even though Harris has advantages on abortion and on
personal traits, she's seen as having the right temperament to
be president. And Trump is not. So it's we've got conflicting
forces here. The economy being a real strength for Trump.
>> Lastly, with less than a minute left, you did another
question about property taxes versus school spending. 56% of
respondents say reducing property taxes is more important
than increasing funding for schools, which sits at 44%. Big
shift. longer period of time. In 2018,
those numbers were almost exactly the opposite. High 50s
favoring schools, low 40s or even 39% saying property taxes
was more important. And those numbers have moved steadily over
these last six years until they've completely reversed. So
this and I would say that was after support for schools built
from 2012 through 2018. So we've really ridden this cycle up with
support for schools. We've now written it down and concern for
property taxes now higher levels than what we saw in 2012, 2013.