court rulings down the road all right.
be following these. Of course. Zac Schultz. Thank you. Thank
you. How do down ballot candidates like those running
for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin, fare with the tumult at the top
of the Democratic ticket for president on this in the state
of legislative races, we turn to UW La Crosse political scientist
Anthony Chergosky. And being here. Thank you. So
obviously, things are shaky at the top of the ticket. Now, more
than a week out from Joe Biden's very bad debate performance.
What effect might this have on Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race and
its candidates? >> I think the effects could be
substantial, Fred, and that is because the amount of split
ticket voting has gone down over the years by split ticket
voting, I mean a ballot where a voter votes for at least one
Democrat and one Republican on the same ballot. More and more,
we're seeing voters vote straight ticket, meaning they
vote for the same political party for all of the races on
the ballot. As Partizanship in the electorate has increased,
and as the political divide in society has widened, we see more
and more that how someone votes for president is a great
predictor of how they vote in other races on the ballot. So
what happens at the top of the ticket will really matter when
it comes to explaining what happens down the ballot.
>> So how does Joe Biden dropping out change the calculus
for other races? >> I think other candidates need
to adjust to the new political realities because they could try
to perhaps distance themselves from the presidential campaign,
try to run their own race. As Senator Baldwin said in a recent
statement, it is still possible nowadays to get some cross party
voters, but it takes a strong candidate with the right message
and the right amount of resources to pull that off. It's
not easy to get voters to cross the party line, but it can be
done in certain circumstances. And in fact, with Senator
Baldwin, we've seen that in the past. She has been able to pull
in at least some voters who tend to go the Republican direction.
>> Similar effects down to congressional races and even
state legislative races. >> I would say. So what happens
at the presidential level will affect Democrats chances of
unseating Republican incumbents House of Representatives races.
Democrats have talked up their opportunities to defeat Bryan
Steil and Derrick Van Orden. And what happens at the presidential
level will affect their chances of doing that. And of course,
when we look at the state Senate and state Assembly, Democrats
are enthusiastic about the new district maps. But how much can
they take advantage of those new district maps? What happens at
the in the other races on the ballot will have a lot to say
about that. >> So as to the legislature,
between, as you say, these redrawn districts and
retirements, nearly two thirds of the Assembly seats are open
this election, 60 open seats of 99, and Dems have 120 candidates
running. How stunning is that? >> A candidate recruitment was
going to be huge this time around because there are so many
redrawn districts, so many districts that have changed
significantly since the last round of redistricting. So the
pressure is going to be on these candidates to introduce
themselves to the voters. We see a lot of incumbents who are
either not running or are running in a very different
district. A lot of new faces coming into the political scene
for these state legislative races. So the stakes are high
and these candidates are going to have to work really hard.
They're going to have to knock on a lot of doors, march in a
lot of parades, make a lot of phone calls to be successful in
this campaign. >> So you remarked how candidate
quality would affect the battle for majority control of the
Assembly. Is that what you mean? Does these people have to really
get out there, put their faces out there and be super engaged?
>> Absolutely. The right messag, the right candidate with the
right amount of resources, a candidate who can quickly
develop trust in what might be a redrawn district or might be a
completely new district, a candidate with a compelling
message that can take advantage of the political conditions on
the ground. Maybe they need to distinguish themselves from the
other candidates of their party on the ticket. And of course,
money, money, money that's going to play a huge role in
candidates being able to get their message out in a very
crowded political environment. It's going to be tough for these
state legislative candidates to break through in a climate where
we've got a high profile presidential race, high profile
U.S. Senate race, these state legislative candidates are going
to have to work hard. >> So how likely is it that
Democrats could win control of the Assembly?
>> It's quite possible. And they need to also have a good showing
in the state Senate races to lay the groundwork for 2026, where
they hope to make a run at the majority. Right now, I would
tend to believe that the Republicans are the favorite for
the state Assembly majority, but there is some uncertainty about
that. And for over a decade, it's been darn certain that
Republicans would be the majority party. For the first
time in a long time. There's at least some question about which
party will hold majority control in the state Assembly when we
see the new Assembly members come in to office next January.
>> All right. We leave it there. >> All right. We leave it there.