>> The following program is a PBS Wisconsin original
production. 2024 election coverage. The
campaigns are counting down the hours for Donald Trump and
Kamala Harris as the neck and neck candidates flock to swing
states in the remaining days before the election. I'm
Frederica Freyberg tonight on "Here& Now" a rundown of the
candidates six visits in the last three days, the last
Marquette Law School poll before the election, the roller coaster
of voter enthusiasm and a special look at the many
presidential campaign stops around Wisconsin. It's "Here&
Now" for November 1st, funding for "Here& Now" is provided by
the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.
With the election in four days, Wisconsin is the place to be.
Tonight, both presidential candidates are holding rallies
in and around Milwaukee. Donald Trump is scheduled to speak
within the hour at the Fiserv Forum downtown. That's where
“Here& Now” reporter Nathan Denzin is. And hi, Nathan. Hi,
Fred. So what time is Donald Trump scheduled to take the
stage? And who have you been hearing from in that crowd until
he does? >> Yeah. So Trump is expected to
speak here at about 8:00. But we know with a lot of Trump rallies
he can show up late. So probably about 830 is realistic in the
meantime, people here have heard from a lot of former and current
Wisconsin representatives, former Governors Tommy Thompson
and Scott Walker were both here, as were Representatives Brian
Steil Scott Fitzgerald, Senator Ron Johnson and Senate candidate
Eric Hovde. So very Wisconsin specific. Not a lot of outside
people, but what's the energy like there inside, it's very
high. It is very high energy in here.
about 7 a.m. This morning, there was a line that was already
forming and it's pretty full in here.
>> The second section in here was curtained off initially, but
they've been opening up that more and more as we've gotten
close to the Trump speaking. There is not an empty seat in
here. If that seat is available, why would Donald Trump visit a
Democratic stronghold like Milwaukee once again?
>> Just chuck it to him. >> Yeah. So it harkens back to
the advice that former Governor Tommy Thompson had given to
Republicans in the state, and that is to really hit these
areas of Madison and Milwaukee hard. If you look at it, the
percentages, it might say that they're very, very democratic.
And that's true. But there's still a lot of Republican votes
in these cities, and they don't get to see their their
presidential candidate very often. So Republicans are trying
to hit these areas to drive out those voters because, as we
know, in a state like Wisconsin, every vote counts.
to Wisconsin this week, as we have mentioned. Where else has
Trump rallied? >> Yeah. So Trump was also in
green Bay on Wednesday, where he rallied with former legendary
Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre. And he really urged his
supporters to get out the vote. Here's what he had to say with
your vote this November, we are going to fire Kamala and we are
going to save America. >> We will cut your taxes, end
inflation, slash your prices, raise your wages and bring
thousands of factories back to America. And in fact, we're
going to bring a lot of them right back to Wisconsin.
>> So we saw him there in his reflective vest as a prop to
highlight a comment that Joe Biden had made earlier this
week. But it does sure seem, Nathan, like these campaigns are
leaving it all on the field in the final days. Can you sense
that from the crowd as well? Yeah, absolutely.
stops here tonight. The music is loud, as you can probably hear
behind me. They've had the t shirt cannon out. They really
care about this state. >> In his many visits to
Wisconsin, who is Trump hoping to turn out?
>> Well, really? He's hoping to turn out his base here. He's
probably not changing many minds, but it is. Rally in green
Bay. He was in the bow counties of Brown, Outagamie and
Winnebago, which is a really strong Republican stronghold.
>> And here the wow counties of Washington, Ozaki and Waukesha
are very close. >> And those have been trending
a little bit blue in recent years. But it still can be
counted on, as you know, a lot of Republican votes that that
could be coming to Trump. So he's trying to drive out his
base in these last, last hours of the election here in
Wisconsin. really appreciate your reporting
from the Fiserv Forum there in Milwaukee with that loud music,
the t shirt cannons and all the rest. Thanks very much for your
reporting. Thanks, Fred. The U.S. Department of Justice will
have election monitors in four counties on Election day,
including Milwaukee and Wausau. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris also
made her second trip to Wisconsin this week with three
stops across the state today in Little Chute, Janesville and
later tonight in West Allis, where she's holding a rally just
miles from the Trump event. Midweek, Harris fired up young
voters in Madison. Reporter Steven Potter was there. All
right, Madison, are we ready to do this?
>> Even as they waited in line to hear from Kamala Harris at
the Get Out the vote rally, the mostly young crowd had their
minds made up. >> One of the biggest issues for
me is her plan for middle class families and helping make
housing more affordable, especially for people in my
generation. Gen Z students like UW-Madison senior Anne-Marie
Goncalves said. stake in this election.
>> We're the ones who these decisions are going to affect,
and we're also going to have to deal with the ramifications and
repercussions of the decisions that are made by our political
candidates at the moment. So it's super important that we
elect officials that we believe are going to be making the right
choices for us. >> Many said that they've
already cast their ballot for Harris. Rashawn Overton drove up
from Illinois. >> I think people like me in
this country, we often feel like we don't have the opportunity to
be successful. So to hear Harris talk about building an
opportunity economy and an economy in which we all get a
chance just to like, do something and thrive and find
fulfillment within our life, sounds amazing to me.
>> But older generations turned out to the event, too.
>> Health care is very important. The economy of this
country is really important. Coming up with a plan for
immigration is important. And she's got all those things in a
policy right now. >> Inside the arena, the energy
was stoked by the star power and a capacity crowd.
>> Early voting is happening right now, so make your plan.
Bring your friends and get out there and vote.
>> The thousands of college students left with a homework
assignment. >> And if you are one of those
people who has already cast a ballot, you've just signed
yourself up to bring ten people to the polls between now and
Election Day. >> Call and text ten people in
your life. That's all you have to do.
>> Kamala Harris made a direct appeal to young voters on the
issues of climate change, gun violence and reproductive
impatient for change. >> These issues are not
theoretical. This is not political. For you. This is your
lived experience. And I see you and let us remember that your
vote is your voice, and your voice is your power.
>> Election day will be the true test. If Harris brought the
energy and if Wisconsin voters, as they say, understood the
assignment. Reporting from Madison for "Here& Now". I'm
Steven Potter. >> As so often befalls
Wisconsin, this election is a squeaker virtually tied at the
top of the ticket heading into November 5th. We turn to Charles
Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll out
this week with his last poll before election Day. And thanks
for being here. Glad to be here. So let's take a look right away
at your results. A Democratic vice president, Kamala Harris,
is supported by 50% of likely voters and a Republican former
president Donald Trump is supported by 49% in the head to
head. How has this tightened since your last poll?
>> It's tightened a little bit from a four point Harris lead in
late September to this one point lead, but over the course of the
year, we've done seven polls. Not one of them has been outside
the margin of error. This one is no exception to that. Are there
any trends to point to that suggest a winner here?
>> Yeah. pushing in different directions
on issues. Trump has a little bit of an advantage. 46% say
he's better on the issue that's most important to them. 43% say
the same of Harris. But on personal characteristics, Harris
is seen as by a considerable margin, having the right
temperament to be president, being honest and being
intelligent. Trump has an advantage on having a record of
past accomplishments, so on the on the balance, the personality
side is leaning strongly to Harris. But on the issue side,
it leans to Trump. And then the last thing is that Joe Biden
remains unpopular. Just 42 or 43% job approval. All this past
year. And people think their financial situation is worse off
than it was under Trump in this latest poll, you surveyed 5%
more Republicans than Democrats. >> Does that change the result
or get weighted somehow? No. >> We've seen over the course of
the year, we've seen Republican advantages of 3 to 5%, and it's
been about 4% the last couple of polls. This final poll was a 4%
in late September. It's a 5% now. This May reflect a genuine
shift in Partizanship because we've seen it all year. It was a
little bit tighter a year ago. In November of 2023, but
throughout this year we've seen this little bit larger than in
the past. Republican advantage. So we'll find out on Election
Day if that squares with the vote. But it's not an an
aberration of a single poll. It's been a consistent pattern
throughout the year. >> There's so many things to
talk about here, but one of them is the 5% undecided. I can't
believe there's anybody >> You'd think that especially
this late in the game. But when you look at who is undecided, it
actually makes sense. Independents, pure independents
who don't feel closer to either party. About 20% undecided
people who dislike both candidates, 35 to 40% undecided
and Republicans with an unfavorable view of Trump.
That's 13% of Republicans, about 40% undecided. The crossover of
Republicans voting for Harris is about 7%. So that's a little bit
more than half of the Republicans with an unfavorable
view of Trump. >> There's another number here.
Third party candidates combined. Take 9% in your poll. Now it's
not expected that that would stand during actual voting. But
could that tip this race. >> Well it certainly could. And
it's the biggest surprise to me in the poll. We've been seeing
third party voting going down all year. It was 6% at the end
of September. Now it's 9%. I think in part it still reflects
some reluctance on the part of voters who are not thrilled with
either choice. But I'd be surprised if it's that high. We
were at 5.5% in 2016, and just 1.5% third party vote in 2020.
So I've been expecting that to be below five and a half. But
this last poll showed a little uptick for Kennedy and a tiny
uptick for the other third party candidates.
race in Wisconsin. Your results show that Tammy Baldwin is at
51% to 49% for Eric Hovde. Now, this is inside the margin of
error. This is quite a tightening. Since your last
poll. ahead by 6 or 7 in the last
poll. So down to two now other polling has shown it a close
race. And the campaigns have said they think their polling
shows it close. So I think the 2% is probably reasonable given
the what's happened in other people's polls. And there has
been some shifts in the perception of Hovde in
particular. this race?
we've asked people which candidate would work harder to
solve national problems. Baldwin had been leading in this, but
this time Hovde is one point ahead of her on that question.
So it suggests some messaging is has sunk in. Also, who would
better represent the interests of Wisconsin? Baldwin had had a
nine point lead earlier on that. It's down to about a four point
lead now. I think in some sense this is just the tightening of
the race, but it also does reflect some of the messages of
each campaign beginning to work through.
vote. And the measure of enthusiasm. It's at 66%, but
it's varied by party for Democrats, 75% are very
enthusiastic, and that is up 4% from your last poll. How
historically high is that or is it?
historically high levels, but it is quite high. Earlier in the
year, Republicans were 10 to 15 points more enthusiastic than
Democrats than Biden dropped out and Democrats caught up and then
surpassed Republicans. Republican enthusiasm is still
pretty high. It's just that Democrats have pushed a little
bit past them. >> So Republican enthusiasm sits
at 66%. One thing I really want to get to is to ask you on
election night, as the returns come in, what in Wisconsin will
you be watching for? >> It's always the margin of the
vote coming in in Milwaukee and in Dane County. That's where
Democrats run up their huge margins in those two counties.
The wow counties around Milwaukee, do those show a
further decline in Republican strength? We expect the
Republican to win, but maybe by less. And then I think the
sleeper is what happens in the north and west of the state.
Trump gained a lot of votes from 12 to 16, but in 20 he basically
broke even with where he had been in 2016. But there's
potential for a surge in Trump votes there if that happens.
That's good news for him. If it fails to happen, then we're
looking at the southeast to see if these trends that we've seen
in the Milwaukee suburbs and in Milwaukee and Dane County hold
up. you. Charles Franklin, in most
presidential elections, pundits the last minute news story that
can change the trajectory of an election. But this year, the
biggest shift took place in July, when President Joe Biden
announced he was stepping aside, allowing for Kamala Harris to
become the Democratic nominee. One significant way this change
things on the ground is in voter enthusiasm. And as we just
discussed, the latest Marquette poll shows enthusiasm is higher
among Democrats than Republicans "Here& Now", senior political
reporter Zach Schultz shows us how this has changed the race in
Wisconsin. great.
>> Here's a couple on a beautiful fall day, the office
of the Ozaukee Democrats is bustling.
people wanting to volunteer ever.
county party and is getting ready for a visit from Gwen
Wahls, wife of vice presidential nominee Tim Walz. Well, good
afternoon, Ozark Democrats. Ozark County is the O. In the
famed Wow counties. The three conservative hotbeds that
surround Milwaukee County and make up the base of the
traditional Republican Party of Wisconsin.
to 400 signs last week. We've got ten left by the end of the
day. >> Another thousand Harris signs
have been dropped off, waiting to be assembled and put up in
yards. A visual reminder of the growing Democratic strength in
suburban Wisconsin. >> It wasn't too long ago that a
visit from someone like Walz and supporters buying yard signs in
Ozaukee County was unthinkable. Four months ago, this was
unthinkable. that night and when President
Biden walked out, I was like, oh boy.
Joe Biden debated Donald Trump. >> The mood here was very
solemn, and we actually had people say, I'm not. I'm going
to vote for him. But I'm not going to do doors. You know, I'm
not going to volunteer a few weeks later, the Republican
National Convention came to Milwaukee.
>> The polling showed Trump with a lead in Wisconsin and
Republicans with a huge advantage in voter enthusiasm.
>> The enthusiasm gap for Donald Trump versus Joe Biden is 22
points, 22 points by the end of the week.
>> Bryan Schimming, the chairman of the Republican Party of
Wisconsin, was warning delegates not to be overconfident about a
Trump win. >> It's not just rhetoric. It
affects the way we run our parties, the way we volunteer,
the way we run door to door programs. It affects everything.
So we got to go for the win that Sunday.
campaign and dropped out of the race.
forward is to pass the torch to a new generation.
>> Kamala Harris quickly gathered enough support to
become the nominee, and Democratic candidates across the
state felt the mood change at the doors overnight.
>> I did feel like I was kind of running a roving therapy session
for relieved Democrats at the doors occasionally because
everyone who was a partisan wanted to talk to you about that
and how they felt about it. >> There's definitely been a
shift in enthusiasm. >> Kristy Welch is running for
assembly and also serves as chair of the Brown County
Democrats. She says voter enthusiasm is more than just
being excited to vote with Kamala at the top of the ticket.
>> We definitely saw a major increase in people, you know,
filling out our volunteer form on our website, calling into the
office, stopping by. the nomination at the Democratic
National Convention, she had taken the lead in the polls and
closed the enthusiasm gap. >> Yeah, so there's certainly
been a shift in enthusiasm. I actually just ran into some
folks that I saw about two months ago, and our faces looked
a little bit different. And look, with all due respect to
the president, there's certainly just a shift in energy.
>> By September, the debate tables were turned in terms of
workers rights. Democrats at a green Bay watch party hooted and
cheered as Harris delivered a strong performance.
>> Unfortunately, we need two things. We need walls we need
while Republicans across town were upset that some of Trump's
statements were being fact checked by moderators, the vote,
is that what you believe he's trying to do here?
in Madison, and it's great to be back in Madison, encouraging her
supporters to volunteer, trying to turn enthusiasm into action.
>> The election is basically here. It's basically here. And
we have work to do to energize, to organize and to mobilize and
to remind everyone your vote is your voice.
>> Republicans are asking the same thing of their supporters.
>> Remember, early mail in voting is underway. So vote,
vote, vote. You got to get goin. >> Bryan Schimming says
Republicans haven't lost on enthusiasm.
It's just no longer a blowout. It's very, very high out there.
It is not ebbed at all since the convention. It's really, really
good. The Democrats have to make up for lost time. So, so what
appears to be a jump in the enthusiasm gap on their end is
more getting getting rid of Joe Biden on Election Day.
>> An enthusiastic vote counts just the same as a reluctant
vote. But the campaigns hope an enthusiastic voter will bring
Nonvoters to the polls. >> I want you to try to be a
force multiplier over these next 16 days, because I don't just
want you to take yourself to the polls. I want every single
person in this room to get nine of their friends and family to
the polls with them. >> And all of this energy and
all of these rallies and all of the door knocks and all of the
phone calls and all of the money have to translate into something
so wonderful and so simple, that little I voted sticker on more
Wisconsin books than ever before.
Zach Schultz for "Here& Now". >> Yeah, the saying is a picture
is worth a thousand words. Both candidates have been campaigning
across Wisconsin, seemingly nonstop since the party
conventions. Reporter Murv Seymour has been on the campaign
trail for much of it, with his still camera capturing snapshots
and sounds in the race to win Wisconsin. Reporter good evenin,
Wisconsin. Harris and it's great to be back
in Madison. >> Ladies and gentlemen, the one
man that's going to save this country. President Donald J.
Trump, the American where at least I know I'm free and I
won't forget the men who died. >> Who gave that right to me.
>> Hello, Wisconsin. It's great to be back in this beautiful
state with thousands of hard working, great American
patriots. We appreciate it. To the outside, we have thousands
and thousands of people. Would anybody love to give up their
seat? So are you ready to organize?
>> Are you ready to work? Are you ready to fight? And are you
ready to win? >> Are we going to make Kamala
Harris and Tim Walz our next president and vice president?
And. Freedom, freedom, freedom. >> I can't move. Freedom. Cut me
loose. Freedom, freedom. Where are you? Cause I need freedom,
too. >> When I was five years old, we
lived in Wisconsin. Now, every time I land, Governor Evers will
meet me and he'll say, welcome home.
>> The Republican Party is back. >> Donald Trump's going to win,
and we're taking our country back, and we're going to make it
great again. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, once again,
Dassow back. >> Knodle back. We're not going
back. And the reason Wisconsin is because we know this election
is about two very different visions for our country.
>> Our country is being destroyed. This is the worst
president and the worst vice president in history. You got to
get out and vote. >> Your vote is your voice, and
your voice is your power. And never let anyone take your power
from you. >> If we win and when we win,
we're going to prosecute people that cheat on this election. The
easiest way and the best way is on November 5th. You got to vote
for Trump because we're not going to let it happen.
>> Donald Trump is an unserious man, but the consequences of him
being president again are brutally serious.
terrified of migrants coming in, and even when they haven't yet
arrived, they're terrified. These people that are coming
across the border illegally by the millions are taking the jobs
of the Black population of America and the Hispanic
population of America. >> Someone who suggests we
should terminate the Constitution of the United
States should never again stand behind the seal of the president
of the United States. >> If I win, we will have peace
in the world again. If she gets four more years, the world goes
up in smoke. >> So, Madison, today I ask you,
are you ready to make your voices heard?
>> And we will make America great again. Thank you very
much, Wisconsin. Thank you very much.
>> Thank you. >> For more on this and other
issues facing Wisconsin, visit our website at PBS Wisconsin
.org. And then click on the news tab to see all of our election
coverage. Visit Wisconsin Vote.org. And on election night,
we will have live coverage. As the polls close and into the
night alongside PBS news, election 2024 Special coverage.
That's our program for tonight I'm Frederica Freyberg. Have a
good weekend.
>> Funding for "Here& Now" is provided by the Focus Fund for
Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.