WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS AS THE LATEST NATIONAL MARQUETTE LAW
SCHOOL POLL SHOWS IT AN EVEN RACE.
WE TURN TO ANTHONY CHERGOSKY, POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT
UW LACROSSE. THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.
>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. >> SO JOE BIDEN SAW MORE THAN
42,000 PEOPLE VOTE UNINSTRUCTED, PRESUMABLY OVER HIS POSITION ON
ISRAEL AND GAZA. HE ONLY WON WISCONSIN IN 2020 BY
20,000 VOTES. HOW BIG OF A RED FLAG IS THIS
FOR JOE BIDEN? >> I THINK IT'S A RED FLAG FOR
SURE BECAUSE WISCONSIN WAS DECIDED SO NARROWLY IN 2020.
IN FACT, THE UNINSTRUCTED MOVEMENT HAD A GOAL OF 20,000
VOTES AND THEY EASILY SURPASSED THAT.
20,000 WAS ROUGHLY THE MARGIN OF VICTORY FOR JOE BIDEN IN THE
LAST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HERE IN WISCONSIN BETWEEN BIDEN AND
TRUMP. SO IN WISCONSIN, ANY LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF VOTERS CAN MAKE THE DIFFERENCE, ANY LITTLE SHIFT
HERE AND THERE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
SO THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME CAUSE -- THERE'S CERTAINLY SOME
CAUSE FOR CONCERN FOR THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN.
>> HOW LYLE DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE TO CHANGE HIS POSITION
ON ISRAEL BECAUSE OF THIS? >> I'M NOT SURE HOW LIKELY IT
WOULD BE, FRED, BUT WHAT I CAN SAY IS THERE'S A LONG TIME
BETWEEN NOW AND THE NOVEMBER ELECTION.
THIS GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN IS JUST HOW LONG IT'S GOING TO
BE. THERE'S A LIFETIME BETWEEN NOW
AND NOVEMBER, SO I CAN IMAGINE THAT THE POLICIES AND THE ISSUES
ARE GOING TO EVOLVE AND WE COULD BE IN A VERY DIFFERENT PLACE BY
THE TIME WE GET TO NOVEMBER. >> ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
AISLE, DONALD TRUMP SAW MORE THAN 120,000 PEOPLE VOTE FOR
SOMEONE ELSE ON THE BALLOT, LIKE A NIKKI HALEY, AND HE HAD HIS
OWN 19,000 UNINSTRUCTED VOTERS. IS THIS WORSE FOR HIM OR FOR
BIDEN AT THIS POINT? >> I THINK THE TWO SIDES HAVE
DIFFERENT CONCERNS. FOR BIDEN, THE UNINSTRUCTED
MOVEMENT HAD SPECIFIC ISSUES WITH THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION.
THEY HAD SPECIFIC OBJECTIONS TO THE POLICIES AND THE APPROACHES
OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION. ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, WE'VE
SEEN THIS TIME AND TIME AGAIN IN STATES DURING THIS NOMINATION
PROCESS, WHERE THERE'S A CERTAIN CHUNK OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS WHO
JUST AREN'T THERE WHEN IT COMES TO VOTING FOR DONALD TRUMP IN
NOVEMBER OR FEELING LIKE THEY'RE READY TO VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP
IN NOVEMBER. WE'VE SEEN NIKKI HALEY
CONSISTENTLY PEEL OFF KEY VOTERS IN THE SUBURBS, THOSE
WHITE-COLLAR PROFESSIONALS, COLLEGE GRADUATES WHO HAVE
ALWAYS BEEN PROBLEMATIC FOR DONALD TRUMP WITHIN THE
REPUBLICAN COALITION. SO BIDEN AND TRUMP HAVE CONCERNS
COMING OUT OF THE APRIL ELECTION HERE IN WISCONSIN, BUT THOSE
CONCERNS ARE VERY DIFFERENT IN NATURE.
>> SO WHAT BREAKS LOOSE IF AN RFK, JR. INDEPENDENT MAKES IT
ONTO THE BALLOT? >> I THINK RFK COULD HAVE A KEY
IMPACT ON THE ELECTION, NOT BECAUSE HE HAS ANY SHOT OF
WINNING WISCONSIN, BUT BECAUSE HE COULD TAKE ON THAT SPOILER
ROLE. AND FROM THE APRIL ELECTION
RESULTS HERE IN WISCONSIN, WE KNOW THAT THERE ARE DEMOCRATS
WHO ARE UNHAPPY, BIDEN, WE KNOW THERE ARE REPUBLICANS WHAT ARE
UNHAPPY WITH TRUMP. THE KEY QUESTION IS IF
THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATES CAN BE THAT LANDING SPOT FOR VOTERS ON
EITHER SIDE WHO ARE NOT HAPPY WITH THE CANDIDATE OF THEIR
PARTY. ON EITHER SIDE PLUG THEIR NOSE
AND VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATE OF THEIR PARTY.
SO A LONG TIME TO GO BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER, BUT I DO THINK THE
INFLUENCE OF THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES IS WELL WORTH
WATCHING. >> SO REPUBLICANS WON THEIR TWO
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS IN WISCONSIN PROHIBITING PRIVATE
GRANTS IN RUNNING ELECTIONS. HOW SUGGESTIVE IS THAT WIN WHEN
IT COMES TO ELECTION OUTCOMES IN NOVEMBER?
>> I AM A BIT HESITANT ABOUT MAKING PREDICTIONS FOR NOVEMBER
BASED ON THE APRIL ELECTIONS. WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER VOTER TURNOUT IN NOVEMBER AND THERE'S
A LOT OF TIME FOR THE CAMPAIGN TO PLAY OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
NOVEMBER, A LOT OF TIME FOR VOTERS TO MAKE UP THEIR MINDS.
AND THE PSYCHOLOGY OF VOTERS, THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS OF
THE VOTERS IS GOING TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER AND CLOSER TO
NOVEMBER. SO I'M NOT SURE I WOULD READ TOO
MUCH INTO IT, BUT WHAT I CAN SAY IS THAT REPUBLICANS WERE
EFFECTIVE AT MESSAGING THOSE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS, THEY
WERE EFFECTIVE OF FIRING UP THEIR BASE ON THE ELECTION OF
INTEGRITY. >> SO DONALD TRUMP CONTINUES TO
CAMPAIGN ON THE LIE, FRANKLY, THAT HE BEAT JOE BIDEN IN
WISCONSIN IN THE LAST ELECTION INCLUDING THIS WEEK IN GREEN
BAY. WHY IS THIS PERSUASION SO
ENDURING IN WISCONSIN AND ELSEWHERE?
TOP. LEADER OF THE REPUBLICAN FATTER
AND SO REPUBLICAN VOTERS ARE GOING TO RESPOND WHEN DONALD
TRUMP SAYS SOMETHING. FRED, I THINK IT SPEAKS TO THE
BIND THAT REPUBLICANS ARE IN. WE'VE HAD PEOPLE HIGHER UPS IN
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, PEOPLE LIKE RON JOHNSON, TRYING TO
ENCOURAGE REPUBLICAN VOTERS TO VOTE EARLY, VOTE BY MAIL, BUT
THEN DONALD TRUMP COMES TO GREEN BAY AND CASTS DOUBT ON VOTES BY
MAIL. SO WITH THE TRUMP INFLUENCE AND
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, FREQUENT DONALD TRUMP SAYING ONE THING
EVEN AS PARTY LEADERS ARE TRYING TO PUSH THE PARTY INTO A
DIFFERENT DIRECTION, SUCH AS WITH VOTE BY MAIL.
>> ALL RIGHT. WE LEAVE IT THERE.