RECONSIDERATION. FOR MORE ON THE PROCESS MOVING
FORWARD, WE TURN TO BARRY BURDEN, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL
SCIENCE AT UW-MADISON AND DIRECTOR OF THE ELECTIONS
RESEARCH CENTER. THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.
>> GLAD TO BE WITH YOU. >> SO, AS WE'VE MENTIONED, THE
DEADLINE FORCE SUBMITTING NEW MAPS WAS TODAY.
THERE ARE THE LEGISLATURE'S MAPS AND THE GOVERNOR'S MAPS.
WHAT HAPPENS NOW? >> WELL, PARTIES WILL HAVE
SUBMITTED THE MAPS AND THEN THOSE PARTIES CAN OFFER
RESPONSES TO THE MAPS FROM THE OTHER SIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
SO THOSE REPLY BRIEFS WILL COME IN IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND
THEN ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THAT MATERIAL GETS HANDED TO THE TWO
CONSULTANTS THAT THE COURT DECIDED WOULD EVALUATE THE
MATERIAL AND THEY HAVE UNTIL FEBRUARY 1 TO DO THEIR WORK.
>> SO AT WHAT POINT WOULD THE GOVERNOR, FOR EXAMPLE, HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO VETO THE LEGISLATURE'S MAPS?
>> YEAH, THAT'S A LITTLE UNCLEAR TO ME.
THE PARTIES IN THE CASE MAY SUBMIT PROPOSALS TODAY, BUT IT
SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY THAT THERE WOULD BE A FULL LEGISLATIVE
PROCESS. SO I THINK WE'LL JUS T HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE WHAT GETS SUBMITTED.
MY GUESS IS THAT THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH AND THE LEGISLATIVE
BRANCH WILL HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS AND WILL SUBMIT MAPS ESSENTIALLY
SEPARATELY WITHOUT BOTHERING WITHOUT MUCH OF THE LEGISLATIVE
PROCESS. >> AND YET THIS IS ON A MAJOR
FAST TRACK. >> IT IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY.
THE DECISION CAME DOWN ON DECEMBER 2nd JUST BEFORE THE
CHRISTMAS WEEKEND. THE COURT HOPES AND THE
WISCONSIN ELECTIONS COMMISSION HOPES TO HAVE EVERYTHING DONE BY
MID-MARCH SO THAT MAPS ARE IN PLACE BEFORE THE AUGUST
PRIMARIES LATER IN THE SUMMER. SO IT IS MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP.
>> IS IT EXPECTED, IN YOUR MINDS, THAT THE COURT'S
CONSULTANTS WILL ACTUALLY DRAW THESE VOTING MAPS FROM SCRATCH
IN THE END HERE? >> I THINK THAT'S LIKELY, BUT
THERE IS A LOT OF AMBIGUITY IN THE COURT'S ORDER.
IT SAID THAT THE CONSULTANTS SHOULD EVALUATE THE MAPS THAT
ARE PROPOSED BY THE PARTIES IN TERMS OF WHETHER THEY MEET ALL
OF THE TRADITIONAL CRITERIA PLUS THE ADDITIONAL CRITERIA OF
HAVING NO PARTISAN IMPACT. THE COURT HAS NOT DEFINED WHAT
THEY MEAN BY THAT. I THINK THAT CONSULTANTS HAVE
SOME GOOD CONCEPTS TO RELY ON FROM WORK THEY'VE DONE IN OTHER
STATES AND ACADEMIC WORK ON MEASURING THE BIAS IN MAPS, BUT
THEY WILL HAVE TO COME UP WITH STANDARDS ESSENTIALLY TO
EVALUATE WHETHER THOSE CRITERIA ARE MET.
IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT ANY ONE MAP WOULD MEET ALL OF THE
CRITERIA IN A CLEAR BLACK AND WHITE WAY AND SO THE CONSULTANTS
WILL PROBABLY BE LED TO PRODUCE SOME KIND OF MAPS OF THEIR OWN.
>> SO AS TO THE CRITERIA, WHAT WILL THE MAPS HAVE TO LOOK LIKE
FOR THE COURT'S APPROVAL HERE? >> WELL, THEY WILL MEET THE
CRITERIA THAT THE MAPS HAVE MET IN THE PAST.
FOR EXAMPLE, HAVING EQUAL POPULATIONS IN EACH DISTRICT
COMPLYING WITH THE FEDERAL VOTING RIGHTS ACT TO ENSURE THE
VOTING RIGHTS OF RACIAL AND ETHNIC MINORITIES, TRYING NOT TO
SPLIT COUNTIES AND MUNICIPALITIES UNNECESSARILY.
THIS TIME AROUND, IT WILL ALSO HAVE TO MAKE SURE THERE AREN'T
ANY SEPARATED PIECES OF TERRITORY. ALL THE DISTRICTS
NEED TO BE CONTIGUOUS IN A KIND OF LITERAL
FASHION ON THE MAP AND THEN THIS ADDITIONAL CRITERIA THEY'VE
ADDED OF NO PARTISAN IMPACT, MEANING THE MAN LOOKS SORT OF
NEUTRAL OR THE WAY AN UNINTERESTED PARTY WOULD HAVE
PRODUCED THE MAPS. SO MY GUESS IS THE DISTRICTS
WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT THAN THE ONES WE HAVE TODAY.
THEY WILL CERTAINLY SHAKE UP WHERE INCUMBENTS END UP BECAUSE
THAT'S NOT PART OF THE CONSIDERATION FOR THE
MAP-MAKERS. >> SO THROWN OUT WAS THIS
REQUIREMENT OF LEAST CHANGE FROM THE LAST GO-AROUND.
>> YEAH FELT THAT WAS A MAJOR STATEMENT IN THE COURT'S
OPINION THAT THEY DIDN'T WANT TO ESSENTIALLY REAFFIRM THE
EXISTING BIASES IN THE MAP AND THEY DEMANDED THAT THE MAPS BE
DRAWN FROM SCRATCH IN A WAY THAT IS POLITICALLY NEUTRAL, SO NOT
ADVANTAGING ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER AND ADOPTING A LEAST
CHANGED APPROACH THEY VIEWED AS ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN EXISTING
BIASES IN FAVOR OF REPUBLICANS. >> WHAT IS THE EXPECTATION THAT
THE REMEDIAL VOTING MAPS WILL, IN FACT BE IN PLACE IN TIME FOR
THIS YEAR'S ELECTIONS? >> I THINK IT CAN HAPPEN.
THIS IS A NEW PROCESS FOR THE STATE SUPREME COURT.
THEY'VE NOT PRODUCED MAPS IN THIS WAY BEFORE.
IT'S AN ACCELERATED TIME SCHEDULE SO IT NEEDS TO TO BE
DONE WITHIN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY TO HAVE EVERYTHING IN
PLACE IN EARLY MARCH. I THINK IT'S VERY POSSIBLE FOR
CONSULTANCE TO DO THAT. I THINK IS THAT QUESTION OF HOW
FAST THE COURT CAN ACT WHEN IT GETS THE MAPS FROM CONSULTANTS,
BUT GIVEN THE TECHNOLOGY AND THE FAMILIARITY WITH ALL OF THE
INTERESTED PARTIES HERE, I THINK MAPS CAN COME TOGETHER PRETTY
QUICKLY. >> IN THE END, HOW M IGHT
REMEDIAL MAPS CHANGE THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE IN
WISCONSIN? >> I THINK THE NUM BER ONE EFFECT
WILL BE SHAKING UP INCUMBENTS. DISTRICTS TODAY ARE DRAWN WITH
INCUMBENTS IN MIND. THEY ARE PLAYERS IN THE PROCESS
AND THE STATE LEGISLATURE -- IN THE STATE LEGISLATURE SO THEY
HAVE THEIR OWN INTEREST IN MIND. THERE ARE SOME PARTS OF THE
STATE WHERE ADDRESSES ARE VERY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER AND YET THE
DISTRICTS HAVE BEEN DRAWN TO ENSURE THAT THEY'RE IN DIFFERENT
DISTRICTS, SO WE SHOULD EXPECT OFTS PLACES WHERE INCUMBENTS
GET THROWN INTO TOGETHER TO THE SAME DISTRICTS OR FORCED TO MAKE
HARD DECISIONS. I THINK THE BAD IMPACT WILL BE
BIGGER THAN THE PARTISAN IMPACTS WHICH WILL BENEFIT DEMOCRATS,
BUT PROBABLY NOT PUT BOTH CHAMBERS IMMEDIATELY UP FOR
GRABS FOR BOTH PARTIES. >> ALL RIGHT.
BARRY BURDEN, THANK YOU SO MUCH BARRY BURDEN, THANK YOU SO MUCH