EVERYWHERE.
JOE GRANDE, THANKS VERY MUCH.
>> THANK YOU.
>> IN POLITICAL NEWS, THE IDEA
OF LAUNCHING THIRD-PARTY
CANDIDATES IN THE 2024
PRESIDENTIAL RACE IS GAINING
STEAM.
IN ADDITION TO CORNELL WEST
PLANNING ON A GREEN PARTY
TICKET, THE CENTRIST GROUP, NO
LABELS, WHICH IS LOOKING FOR A
IS CALLED UNITY CANDIDATE, IS
EYEING SPECIALS LIKE WEST
VIRGINIA SENATOR JOE MANCHIN.
WHERE DOES THIS PUT THE MAJOR
PARTY CANDIDATES, DONALD TRUMP
AND JOE BIDEN AND HOW WOULD
WISCONSIN SWING WITH A THIRD
PARTY ENTRANT?
FOR THIS AND MORE WE TURN TO
LACROSSE POLITICAL SCIENCE
PROFESSOR, ANTHONY CHERGOSKY.
THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.
>> THANK YOU, FREDERICA.
>> GIVEN THE MAJOR PARTY
CANDIDATES, IS THIS UPCOMING
ELECTION RIPE FOR THIRD-PARTY
CANDIDATES?
>> YOU KNOW, I THOUGHT THAT WAS
TRUE OF THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION.
I LOOKED BACK AT THE POPULAR
VOTE FROM THAT YEAR AND FOUND
THAT NEARLY 95% OF THE POPULAR
VOTE WENT TO EITHER HILLARY
CLINTON OR DONALD TRUMP.
SO COUNT ME AS A THIRD-PARTY
SKEPTIC.
THERE TENDS TO BE A LOT OF TALK
ABOUT THIRD-PARTY ENTRANTS
POTENTIALLY COMING INTO THE
PRESIDENTIAL RACE, AND IT ENDS
UP BEING A LOT OF HYPE AND NOT A
LOT OF VOTES FOR THAT
THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE.
I'M INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THE
CAMPAIGN UNFOLDS, OBVIOUSLY,
BEFORE MAKING A FINAL JUDGMENT,
BUT THE AMERICAN POLITICAL
SYSTEM MAKES IT EXTRAORDINARILY
DIFFICULT FOR A THIRD-PARTY
TICKET TO SUCCEED.
I EXPECT THAT WILL BE TRUE THIS
TIME AROUND.
OF COURSE WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE EXACTLY HOW THE CAMPAIGN
UNFOLDS.
>> LET'S SAY WE DO HAVE A
THIRD-PARTY ENTRANT.
WHO HE IS VOTES WOULD IT CUT
INTO MORE?
BIDEN'S OR TRUMP'S?
>> I'M SEEING INCONSISTENT DATA
ON WHETHER THE THIRD-PARTY
CANDIDATE WOULD BE A IS CALLED
SAMISPOILER FOR EITHER SIDE, AND
THAT IS WHAT THE PARTIES ARE
FOCUSED ON, IF THE THIRD PARTY
IS GOING TO TAKE AWAY VOTES.
WE DON'T THINK OF THEM AS HAVING
A SERIOUS CHANCE OF WINNING.
WE THINK ABOUT THEM PLAYING THAT
SPOILER ROLE WHERE THEY COULD
THROW THE ELECTION ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER.
TO THE POINT ABOUT WISCONSIN,
THE THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE BE
COULD BE HIGHLY RELEVANT IN
WISCONSIN, EVEN IF THE
THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE WIDELY NOT
WIN THE STATE BECAUSE OUR
ELECTIONS HERE ARE SO CLOSE.
IN WISCONSIN, A THIRD-PARTY
CANDIDATE COULD MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE, EVEN IF THEY ONLY
TAKE A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE
VOTE.
>> LOOKING BACK IN PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTORAL HISTORY, WHAT'S AN
EXAMPLE OF A THIRD-PARTY
CANDIDATE THAT DID, IN EFFECT,
SPOIL CANDIDATES' CHANCES OF
TAKING THE SEAT?
I MEAN, RALPH NADER COMES TO
MIND, ROSS PEROT.
>> RALPH NADER COMES TO MIND
BECAUSE HE RAN AS A LEFT WING
CANDIDATE.
THUS, HE WOULD TAKE AWAY VOTES
FROM AL GORE, THE DEMOCRAT.
THERE, IT WAS QUITE CLEAR WHO
THE THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE WAS
TAKING AWAY VOTES FROM, AND IN
THE CASE OF RALPH NADER,
FREDERICA, THE BIG DEAL THERE
WAS FLORIDA, WHERE FLORIDA WAS
DECIDED BY SUCH A SMALL MARGIN,
THAT NADER GOT ENOUGH OF THE
PERCENTAGE TO POTENTIALLY SWING
THE ELECTION IN FAVOR OF GEORGE
W. BUSH, AND THAT'S WHAT WE
WOULD BE LOOKING FOR IF A
THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE MAKES THE
BALLOT IN WISCONSIN IN 2024.
>> RIGHT SO THE TREPIDATION ON
THE PART OF THE MAJOR PARTY
CANDIDATES IN WISCONSIN IS REAL
AROUND A THIRD-PARTY POTENTIAL.
>> IT IS, BECAUSE ONLY A SMALL
NUMBER OF STATES ACTUALLY MATTER
IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, AND SO
THE BIG QUESTION IS, IF A
THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE WOULD BE
ON THE BALLOT IN THAT SMALL
NUMBER OF PIVOTAL STATES AND
WHICH SIDE THAT THIRD-PARTY
CANDIDATE MAY TAKE VOTES FROM.
>> SO A IN THE THIRD
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, WHERE
YOU ARE, DEMOCRATS ARE KIND OF
LINING UP TO RUN AGAINST
INCUMBENT DERRICK VAN ORDEN
THERE.
REBECCA COOKE WHO LOST TO BRAD
PFAFF IS OFFICIALLY IN.
SO THEY MUST THINK THAT THE
FIRST-TERM REPUBLICAN IS
BEATABLE?
>> I THINK SO, FREDERICA.
A LOT IS GOING TO DPOAND O DEPED
ON THE NATIONAL POLITICAL
CONTEXT IN 2024.
WE ZONE KNOW IF 2024 IS GOING TO
BE A REPUBLICAN FRIENDLY YEAR OR
A DEMOCRATIC PARTY FRIENDLY
YEAR.
THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AND
THAT'S GOING TO HAVE A HUGE
EFFECTS ON THE OUTCOME IN THIS
DISTRICT, BUT IN ANTICIPATION OF
POTENTIALLY A FAVORABLE
POLITICAL CLIMATE, A LOT OF
DEMOCRATS ARE LOOKING AT RUNNING
AGAINST FIRST-TERM REPUBLICAN
CONGRESSMAN DERRICK VAN ORDEN,
VIEWING HIM AS POTENTIALLY
VULNERABLE BECAUSE HE WON HIS
PREVIOUS ELECTION BY LESS THAN 4
PERCENTAGE POINTS.
>> HE HAS MODERATED, IT SEEMS TO
ME, IN POLITICAL MESSAGING SINCE
THAT TIME.
>> I WOULD AGREE WITH THAT,
FREDERICA.
HE HAS FOCUSED A LOT ON LIKE
RAILROAD SAFETY, HE'S FOCUSED ON
MENTAL HEALTH, TRYING TO FIND
THAT COMMON GROUND WITH
DEMOCRATS, TRYING TO HAVE SOME
BIPARTISAN POSITIONS.
CONGRESSMAN VAN ORDEN ALSO TAKES
SOME POSITIONS THAT ARE VERY
MUCH IN LINE WITH HIS POLITICAL
PARTY WHEN YOU LOOK AT HIS
POSITION ON IMMIGRATION OR HIS
POSITION ON GUNS.
SO I WOULD DESCRIBE CONGRESSMAN
VAN ORDEN AS TRYING TO GENERATE
SOME PUBLICITY AND GENERATE SOME
MOMENTUM BEHIND BIPARTISAN
EFFORTS WHILE ALSO STICKING WITH
HIS PARTY ON OTHER ISSUES.
>> SO BRAD PFAFF SAYS HE'S
CONSIDERING RUNNING AGAIN BUT
AWAITS NEW DISTRICT MAPS.
HOW WOULD THAT HELP HIM OR OTHER
DEMOCRATS?
>> THERE IS A VERY REAL
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WISCONSIN
STATE SUPREME COURT COULD ENTER
THE PICTURE AND REDRAW THE
CONGRESSIONAL MAPS.
MOST LINCOLN RILEY, LINCO LIKELT
IN THE DISTRICT BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE TO THE DEMOCRATIC
PARTY.
THERE ARE SEVERAL WAYS THAT THE
DISTRICT MAPS COULD BE REDRAWN,
BUT A LOT OF DEMOCRATS ARE VERY
MUCH AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THIS DISTRICT COULD BE
REDRAWN TO MAKE IT MORE
FAVORABLE TERRAIN FOR THEIR
PARTY.
>> ALL RIGHT.
PROFESSOR ANTHONY CHERGOSKY OUT
OF UW LACROSSE, THANKS VERY MUCH