THAT'S GOOD FOR THE
ADMINISTRATION OF ELECTIONS IN
WISCONSIN.
>> WITH ELECTION 2024 ALREADY
HEATING UP, THE LATEST STATEWIDE
POLLING ON CANDIDATES, SITTING
POLITICIANS AND ISSUES TAKES THE
PUBLIC TEMPERATURE IN WISCONSIN.
THE NEW MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL
POLL FINDS SOME INTERESTING
RESULTS.
HERE TO TALK ABOUT IT, POLL
DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN.
THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
THE APPROVAL RATING JUMP IS
INTERESTING.
>> IT'S QUITE A JUMP.
>> 57 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
PROVE OF THE JOB HE'S DOING
WHILE 38 PERCENT DISAPPROVE AND
HIS APPROVAL RATING HAS GONE UP
11 POINTS SINCE THE LAST
ELECTION.
WHAT IN YOUR MIND EXPLAINS THIS?
>> TWO THINGS.
YOU'RE IN THE HEAT OF AN
ELECTORAL BATTLE AND HE'S HAD A
PRETTY GOOD LEGISLATIVE SESSION.
HE CERTAINLY HASN'T GOT MOST OF
WHAT HE WANTED BUT HE'S GOTTEN A
FAIR BIT OF WHAT HE WANTED.
SO I THINK THE SPRING HAS BEEN
FAIRLY GOOD.
IT'S ALSO STRIKING THAT HE'S THE
ONE PERSON WHO'S REALLY HAD THIS
SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN APPROVAL
SINCE OCTOBER.
OTHER RISES ARE MUCH MORE
MODEST.
SO I THINK WE HAVE TO GIVE
CREDIT TO HIM.
>> ON THE OTHER HAND, YOUR POLL
SAYS 40 PERCENT SAY IT'S GOING
IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
COULD THAT BE SOMETHING OTHER
THAN TONY EVERS?
>> I THINK WE'RE SEEING THAT
USED TO BE A MEASURE OF HOW GOOD
A JOB THE INCUMBENT'S DOING, BUT
NOW IF YOU'RE A DEMOCRAT YOU
BLAME REPUBLICANS FOR WHY WE'RE
HEADED OFF IN THE WRONG
DIRECTION AND IF YOU'RE
REPUBLICANS YOU BLAME THE
DEMOCRATS FOR THE SAME THING.
THERE'S A LOT OF ACROSS THE
AISLE POINTING.
WE SEE IN THE NATIONAL AND STATE
NUMBERS.
IT DOESN'T MEAN WHAT IT USED TO
MEAN ABOUT WHETHER THINGS ARE
GOOD OR BAD.
>> IN THE GOP PRESIDENTIAL
PRIMARY, AMONG REPUBLICANS AND
THOSE WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN WHEN
ACCOUNTING FOR ALL THE GOP
CANDIDATES OUT THERE IT'S EVEN
BETWEEN DONALD TRUMP AND RON
DESANTIS, 31 PERCENT AND 30
PERCENT.
WITH 21 PERCENT UNDECIDED, THAT
SEEMS LIKE A BIG NUMBER.
WHEN ASKED WHO THEY WOULD PICK
WHEN ONLY BETWEEN THOSE TWO, 57
PERCENT CHOSE DeSANTIS OVER 41
PERCENT FOR TRUMP.
WHAT DO ALL THESE NUMBERS SAY?
>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, IT'S
REALLY SURPRISING BECAUSE IN
NATIONAL POLLING TRUMP IS
LEADING DeSANTIS BY AT LEAST
DOUBLE DIGITS AND THAT'S BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT INCLUDING IN
OUR NATIONAL POLLING.
I WAS SURPRISED BY THAT NUMBER.
BUT WHAT WE SEE IS THAT OF THE
PEOPLE THAT WOULD LIKE SOMEBODY
OTHER THAN DeSANTIS OR TRUMP OR
ARE UNDECIDED, THEY GO 65 TO 75
PERCENT TO DeSANTIS WHEN YOU ASK
THE HEAD TO HEAD QUESTION.
ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF THEM
MOVE TO TRUMP.
TRUMP IS GETTING A LOT OF
SUPPORT FROM HIS BASE WITHIN THE
PARTY BUT OF THE 30 PERCENT OF
REPUBLICANS THAT DON'T LIKE
TRUMP, HE GOT ZERO PERCENT ON
THE HEAD-TO-HEAD QUESTION.
SO IT'S NOT, YOU KNOW, THOSE
THAT LIKE HIM STILL LIKE HIM
QUITE A BIT BUT THERE IS THIS
SEGMENT, A MINORITY OF 30
PERCENT, THAT REALLY DON'T LIKE
TRUMP AND ARE LOOKING FOR ANY
ALTERNATIVE.
>> SO AS FOR EITHER OF THE TWO
FRONTRUNNING REPUBLICAN
CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT, YOUR
POLL SHOWED A CLOSE MATCH-UP
BETWEEN JOE BIDEN AND DeSANTIS
WITH 4 PERCENT UNDECIDED IN THE
HYPOTHETICAL MATCH-UP BETWEEN
BIDEN, HE DOES MUCH BETTER
AGAINST TRUMP, 52 PERCENT TO 43
PERCENT.
SO AS A CANDIDATE, DONALD TRUMP
HAS SOME WORK TO DO IN THIS
IMPORTANT SWING STATE.
>> YES, I THINK THAT IS
CERTAINLY THE CASE AND IT GOES
PARTLY TO THE ELECTABILITY
ARGUMENT.
IT ALSO GOES TO THE FACT THAT
TRUMP IS STILL GETTING 94 AND 95
PERCENT OF THE REPUBLICAN VOTE
WHEN HE'S MATCHED UP AGAINST
BIDEN.
DeSANTIS GETS ALMOST EXACTLY THE
SAME REPUBLICAN SUPPORT THERE.
SO IT'S NOT REPUBLICANS
DESERTING TRUMP AT ALL.
WHAT IT IS, IS THE INDEPENDENTS
WHO LEAN A LITTLE BIT TO BIDEN
VERSUS DeSANTIS AND MOVE HEAVILY
TO BIDEN WHEN IT'S TRUMP.
IT'S WINNING YOUR PRIMARY WITH A
LOT OF TRUE BELIEVERS BUT MOVING
ON TO A GENERAL ELECTION YOU
NEED TO APPEAL TO INDEPENDENTS.
AND AT LEAST THIS MONTH IN THIS
SAMPLE, TRUMP IS DOING
NOTICEABLY WORSE WITH
INDEPENDENTS THAN DeSANTIS IS.
REMEMBER, WE ARE IN THE FIELD
THE DAY AND FOLLOWING THE
INDICTMENT OF TRUMP.
DIDN'T HURT HIM WITH REPUBLICANS
BUT IT MAY BE THAT THAT'S PART
OF WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THESE
INDEPENDENTS AND LOOKING AHEAD
TO THE GENERAL.
>> INTERESTING CONTEXT.
SO AS FOR SITTING U.S. SENATOR
TAMMY BALDWIN, ALSO UP FOR
RE-ELECTION, HER FAVORABILITY
RATING TICKED UP 3 POINTS FROM
LAST OCTOBER, NOW SITTING AT 40
PERCENT FAVORABLE, 37 PERCENT
UNFAVORABLE BUT 22 PERCENT HAVE
NOT HEARD ENOUGH ABOUT HER.
SHE MUST STILL BE FORMIDABLE
THOUGH BECAUSE NOBODY HAS
FORMALLY DECLARED AGAINST HER.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
THAT'S 22 PERCENT IS IN LINE
WITH WHERE SHE HAS BEEN THE LAST
TWO OR THREE YEARS.
RON JOHNSON IS USUALLY IN THE
30s.
THOUGH WHEN ELECTIONS COME YOU
GET THAT NUMBER DOWN TO 10
PERCENT THAT DON'T KNOW ENOUGH.
IT'S A BIG ELECTION EFFECT.
WHEN WE ASKED ABOUT FOUR
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN CHALLENGERS
BETWEEN 50 AND 85 PERCENT DIDN'T
KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT ANY OF THOSE.
UNTIL SOMEBODY OFFICIALLY GETS
IN AND THE RACE HEATS UP AND
THEY'RE CAMPAIGNING, NO
CHALLENGER IS GOING TO LOOK VERY
GOOD ON THE NAME RECOGNITION
SIDE AND IN PERSPECTIVE BALDWIN
HAS A LITTLE ADVANTAGE OF BEING
WELL KNOWN BUT THE CHALLENGERS
WHEN THEY DO GET IN WILL BUILD
RECOGNITION OVER THE NEXT 18