THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU FOR THE
OPPORTUNITY.
>> INFLATION REMAINS HIGH FOR
THINGS LIKE FOOD AND FUEL.
IN RESPONSE, THE FED CONTINUES
TO HIKE INTEREST RATES WHICH HAS
COOLED THE HOME BUYING MARKET.
BUT CONSUMERS CONTINUE TO SPEND
AND THE JOB MARKET IS STILL HOT.
THOSE ARE SOME OF THE
OBSERVATIONS FROM OUR NEXT GUEST
HERE TO TALK WITH US ABOUT
WISCONSIN'S ECONOMIC CONDITION
AND THE QUESTION EVERYBODY WANTS
TO KNOW, IS THERE A RECESSION ON
THE HORIZON?
KEVIN BAHR IS PROFESSOR OF
FINANCE OF UW STEVENS POINT.
THANKS VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US.
>> MY PLEASURE, THANK YOU.
>> WHAT IS THE CONDITION OF THE
OVERALL ECONOMY RIGHT NOW?
ARE WE SLOWING DOWN AND SLIDING
TOWARD A RECESSION?
>> THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
NEXT YEAR IS THAT THE UNITED
STATES WILL SLIP INTO A
RECESSION.
BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
ALSO THAT THE RECESSION SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AND
RELATIVELY MINOR.
THAT IS KEY IN YES, PEOPLE WILL
GET HURT BUT IT IS NOT SUPPOSED
TO BE AS WHAT THE RECESSION WAS
IN 2000 AND 2008 AND THE EARLY
198 0S.
>> THAT IS COMFORTING.
DO THE RECENT LAYOFFS IN THE
TECH INDUSTRY SPELL ECONOMIC
DOWNTURN RIGHT NOW?
>> I THINK RECENT LAYOFFS IN THE
TECH INDUSTRY, THOSE ARE
DIFFERENT FROM WHAT'S GOING ON
WITH THE REST OF THE ECONOMY.
THE RECENT LAYOFFS IN THE TECH
INDUSTRY.
THEY HAVE THEIR OWN SPECIFIC
SORT OF COMPANY AND INDUSTRY
ISSUES.
THERE WILL BE A SLOWDOWN OVERALL
IN THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY AND
YOU CAN EXPECT JOB LOSSES AND
UNEMPLOYMENT TO GO UP.
BUT THE TECH INDUSTRY IS A
LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT.
THEY HAVE THEIR OWN SPECIFIC
ISSUES TO WORK THROUGH.
>> RIGHT NOW THE OVERALL JOB
MARKET EVEN IN WISCONSIN IS
STILL SUPER HOT?
>> THE JOB MARKET IS INCREDIBLY
HOT.
IN OCTOBER WE HAD 153.3 MILLION
PEOPLE WORKING IN THE UNITED
STATES.
THAT'S MORE THAN AT ANY OTHER
TIME IN THE HISTORY OF THE
UNITED STATES.
WAGE GROWTH IN AUGUST WAS 6.7%
AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE.
IT WENT DOWN TO 6.3% IN
SEPTEMBER.
IT REFLECTS THE HOT LABOR MARKET
AND IN OCTOBER THERE WERE TWO
JOB OPENINGS FOR EVERY
UNEMPLOYED PERSON.
SO ALL THOSE FACTORS COMBINE
INTO A VERY HOT LABOR MARKET.
>> THE FACE OF INFLATION, HOW IS
IT THAT CONSUMER SPENDING IS
HOLDING?
>> WELL, I THINK PART OF THE
REASON CONSUMER SPENDING IS
HOLDING IS BECAUSE THE JOB
MARKET HAS BEEN SO HOT.
YOU'VE GOT RECORD EMPLOYMENT
LEVELS.
WAGES GOING UP.
SO THE JOB MARKET HAS REALLY
KIND OF FUELED CONSUMER
SPENDING.
THE INCREASE IN THE INTEREST
RATES BY THE FED LAST TWO
QUARTERS, INVESTMENT SPENDING
HAS DECLINED IN THE UNITED
STATES.
CONSUMPTION SPENDING HAS
INCREASED EVER SINCE THE SECOND
QUARTER OF 2020.
IT HAS BEEN UP, UP AND AWAY WITH
CONSUMER SPENDING.
IT IS LOWER NOW THAN WHAT IT HAD
BEEN LAST YEAR BUT STILL
INCREASING.
THE RATE OF GROWTH IS LOWER NOW
THAN LAST YEAR.
>> DOES THAT SUGGEST THAT
INFLATION REALLY ISN'T HITTING
PEOPLE?
>> I THINK INFLATION IS HITTING
PEOPLE, BUT THEY STILL HAVE
MONEY TO SPEND.
AND I WOULD POINT OUT THAT
INFLATION RIGHT NOW, THIS IS
GLOBAL.
A GLOBAL ISSUE.
INFLATION THE VARYING BETWEEN 7
AND 10% IN CANADA, AUSTRALIA,
UNITED KINGDOM AND GERMANY AND
ITALY
IT'S A GLOBAL ISSUE.
A LOT OF THE FACTORS AFFECTING
THOSE -- THAT INFLATION
WORLDWIDE RELATES TO THE WAR IN
UKRAINE AND SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES.
>> SO HOLIDAY RETAIL IS ALWAYS
AN INDICATOR.
WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS FOR
THAT?
>> THAT'S GOING TO BE SOMETHING
VERY INTERESTING TO WATCH.
IN OCTOBER RETAIL SALES
INCREASED.
SO THERE ARE DIFFERENT FORECASTS
FOR RETAIL SALES.
WHEN YOU START GETTING INTO
FORECASTING THE ECONOMY NEXT
YEAR AND WHETHER OR NOT YOU'LL
HAVE A RECESSION, IT IS ALMOST
LIKE DOING A LONG-RANGE WEATHER
FORECAST.
YOU ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL
BE CLOUDY AND NOT STORM, BUT IT
MIGHT RAIN, IT MIGHT NOT RAIN.
AND IN ANY EVENT, THE ECONOMY IS
GOING TO SLOW.
HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAST IT
SLOWS, THAT'S STILL SUBJECT TO
QUESTION.
>> WELL, WE APPRECIATE YOUR
PROGNOSTICATIONS AND YOUR
EXPERTISE.
KEVIN BAHR, PROFESSOR OF FINANCE
AT UW STEVENS POINT, THANK YOU
VERY MUCH.
>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
>> FOR MORE ON THIS AND OTHER
ISSUES FACING WISCONSIN, VISIT