WE MIS-IDENTIFIED STACY SCOGGIN.
WE HAVE THE LATEST POLL AHEAD OF
THE ELECTION.
MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL
DIRECTOR JOINS US.
THANKS FOR BEING HERE.
>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
>> Frederica: WE HAVE A TOSS-UP
AND A DEAD HEAT WITH EVERS AND
MICHELS EACH AT 48% AMONG LIKELY
VOTERS.
THIS HAS MOVED IN MICHEL'S
DIRECTION.
WHAT DO ADS DO TO THE VOTERS?
>> WE'VE SEEN A SMALL BUT
CONSISTENT TIGHTENING IN THE
GOVERNOR'S RACE.
I THINK THE CAMPAIGN HAS TO DO
WITH THE ADVERTISING IS
VOLUMINOUS MORE THAN IN PREVIOUS
RACE.
SO PEOPLE ARE CONSTANTLY EXPOSED
TO CAMPAIGN MESSAGES WHETHER
THAT PRODUCES A TIGHTER RACE OR
NOT I DON'T KNOW BUT CERTAINLY
IT MEANS THAT VOTERS HAVE GAINED
INFORMATION ABOUT THE CANDIDATES
AND FORMED OPINIONS ABOUT THEM
ESPECIALLY TIM MICHELS THE
CHALLENGER.
TONY EVERS THEIR VIEWS HAVEN'T
CHANGE AS MUCH ON HIM
>> Frederica: TURNOUT WILL BE
EVERYTHING.
>> TURNOUT WILL BE EVERYTHING A,
BECAUSE IT'S ALWAYS EVERYTHING,
BUT ALSO HERE IN WISCONSIN WHERE
WE'RE LOOKING AT SUCH A CLOSE
RACE, TIED AT 48% IN OUR POLL
DOESN'T GET ANY CLOSER THAN
THAT.
EVEN LITTLE CHANGES MATTER AND
SO YOU'RE SEEING BOTH PARTIES
PULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND TO TRY
TO GET EVERY LAST SINGLE VOTER
THEY CAN GET.
BECAUSE WE'RE PAST THE POINT
WHERE THERE'S VERY MANY PEOPLE
TO INFLUENCE.
>> Frederica: AND SINCE YOUR
LAST PAUL BONDS HAS MOVED UP.
GOING INTO THIS RON JOHNSON WAS
REGARDED AS ONE OF THE MOST
VULNERABLE RE-ELECTION BY THE
NATIONAL PUNDITS.
WHAT'S RESPONSIBLE AMONG
WISCONSIN VOTERS FOR HIM
MAINTAINING HIS STAYING POWER?
>> AS WE SAW IN 2016 WHEN
JOHNSON WON RE-ELECTION THE LAST
TIME, HE STARTED THE YEAR VIEWED
UNFAVORABLY BY QUITE A BIT OF
ABOUT 9 OR 10 POINTS UNFAVORABLE
THAN FAVORABLE VIEWS.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE YEAR IN
EACH POLL HE'S GOTTEN JUST A
LITTLE BIT MORE FAVORABLE AND
HIS NET NOW IS JUST BARELY NET
NEGATIVE.
SO HE'S STILL A LITTLE NET
NEGATIVE BUT IMPROVED OVER THE
COURSE OF THE XAVCAMPAIGN.
THAT'S THE SAME WHEN HE STARTED
LAST TIME AND CAUGHT UP.
WE SEE TIGHTENING WHERE WE HAD
JOHNSON UP 6 POINTS TO TODAY UP
BY 2 POINTS BUT DIDN'T REALIZE
IT REPRESENTS A 2-POINT CHANGE
IN BARNES' FAVOR AND AGAINST
JOHNSON.
WE'RE REALLY LOOKING AT 2-POINT
CHANGE ON EACH OF THE
CANDIDATES.
THAT'S ALL IT TOOK TO GO FROM A
6-POINT TO 2-POINT LEAD.
> Frederica: IN THE CARES ABOUT
PEOPLE LIKE ME, CATEGORY, BOTH
HAVE IT OVER THE REPUBLICANS 52%
OF OF RESPONDENTS SAID TONY
EVERS CARES WITH 40% SAYING HE
DOESN'T.
THAT'S COMPARED TO TIM MICHELS
WHERE 43% SAID HE CARES ABOUT
PEOPLE LIKE THEM AND 46% SAID HE
DOESN'T CARE.
DO PEOPLE VOTE BASED ON THIS
PERCEPTION?
>> WE ALWAYS THINK SO BUT I PUT
THE QUESTION IN IN PART TO SEE
THIS.
THE DEMOCRAT HAS THE ADVANTAGE
YET THE RACE IS TIED.
MAYBE IT'S BECAUSE OF THE
ADVANTAGE ON THE PERSONAL
CHARACTERISTIC IS WHY EVERS IS
DOING AS WELL AS HE DID AND IF
HE DIDN'T HE MAY BE TRAIL.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE PARTISAN
TIES MAY INFLUENCE VOTING FOR A
CANDIDATE WHEN WE DON'T THINK
THEY'RE TERRIFIC OR CARE MORE
ABOUT ME.
>> Frederica: IN THE SENATE RACE
49% SAID MENDELA BARNES CARES
ABOUT PEOPLE LIKE THEM WITH 42%
SAYING AND FOR JOHNSON 49% SAID
HE DOESN'T.
IS THIS MOSTLY ABOUT RICH VERSUS
WORKING CLASS OR IS THERE
SOMETHING MORE HERE?
>> I WONDER ABOUT THAT.
IT'S INTERESTING THAT DESPITE
THE NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN ADS THAT
WE'VE SEEN THROUGH THE YEAR,
BARNES MAINTAINS THIS ADVANTAGE
THOUGH OUT OF THOSE ATTACKS ARE
DIRECTED AT HIM.
WE DID ASK FOR THE CLASS
QUESTION, DO EACH OF THESE
CANDIDATES CARE -- WHO BETTER
UNDERSTANDS THE PROBLEMS OF
ORDINARY PEOPLE IN WISCONSIN?
WE PUT THAT THERE BECAUSE WE
HAVE TWO MILLIONAIRES RUNNING
AGAINST TWO NON-MILLIONAIRES.
YOU MAY THINK SOCIAL CLASS WOULD
MATTER BUT WE SAY THE DEMOCRATS
HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF AN
ADVANTAGE ON THAT BUT NOT REALLY
A LOT.
IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE BEING
WEALTHY AS A CANDIDATE MAKES
PEOPLE THINK YOU DON'T
UNDERSTAND THE ORDINARY
PROBLEMS.
>> Frederica: FOR YOUR POLLING
OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IT'S IN
VIOLENCE AND EDUCATION AND THE
RANKING OF ISSUES DOES NOT FULLY
COMFORT WITH WHAT VOTERS ARE
ECHOING.
FOR DEMOCRATS INFLATION COMES IN
AT 5 AND ABORTION AT NUMBER 1.
FOR REPUBLICANS, VOTE COUNT ANG
RASSY IS ONE AND INFLATION AND
THEN CRIME IS THREE.
FOR ALL REGISTERED VOTERS AND
INDEPENDENT VOTERS PUBLIC
SCHOOLS VOTE HIGHER THAN FOR
EITHER DEMS OR GOP AND
INDEPENDENTS TRACK ISSUE TO
REGISTERED VOTERS THAN MAJOR
PARTY RESPONDENTS.
WHAT'S THIS SAY FOR HOW THE
PARTIES DECIDE FOR THE VOTERS
INSTEAD THE OTHER WAY AROUND?
>> I THINK WHEN WE SEE THE
PARTIES TALK ABOUT ISSUES AT THE
TOP OF THEIR LIST YOU'RE SEEING
AN APPEAL TO THE BASE.
REPUBLICANS PUSHED CRIME AN
ISSUE WHICH NEAR THE TOP FOR
THEIR VOTERS AND DEMOCRATS
PUSHED ABORTION.
WHOSE SPEAKING TO THE
INDEPENDENTS THEY'RE A MIX.
>> Frederica: CHARLES FRANKLIN