>> 53 DAYS OUT FROM THE NOVEMBER
ELECTION AND IT'S ANYBODY'S
RACE.
THE LATEST POLL SHOWING IT
NECK-AND-NECK FOR U.S. SENATE
AND WISCONSIN GOVERNOR.
MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL
DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLY IS HERE
WITH HIS RESULTS RELEASED THIS
WEEK.
AND HI, CHARLES.
>> GOOD TO BE HERE.
>> SO THIS SURE IS A NAIL-BITER.
>> AS IT OFTEN IS IN WISCONSIN.
AFTER SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF A
LEAD FOR BARNES IN THE SENATE
RACE, THAT'S NOW TIGHTENED TO A
ONE-POINT JOHNSON LEAD AND IN
THE GOVERNOR'S RACE, A LITTLE
TIGHTENING FROM A 4-POINT EVERS
LEAD TO A 3-POINT LEAD, ALL
INSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR.
>> LET'S GO BACK TO THE U.S.
SENATE RACE AND AS YOU JUST
SUGGESTED, IN AUGUST BARNES WAS
7 POINTS AHEAD.
WHAT HAPPENED THERE IN SUCH A
SHORT TIME?
>> WELL, I THINK IT WAS THE
POSITIVE SIDE OF THE PRIMARY WIN
THAT MANDELA BARNES HAD A STRONG
PRIMARY, THREE OF HIS OPPONENTS
DROPPED OUT AND ENDORSED HIM,
THE WINS THE PRIMARY EASILY.
AND SO YOU GET A BUMP FROM THAT.
BUT WHILE DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
ESPECIALLY HAD A VERY POSITIVE
VIEW OF HIM AND SO DID
INDEPENDENTS, THERE WAS 41%
WITHOUT AN OPINION OF HIM IN
AUGUST.
AND NOW IT'S NOT THE PRIMARY,
WELCOME TO THE NFL, IT'S TIME
FOR GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN
ADVERTISEMENTS, AND I THINK
THAT'S PRETTY CLEARLY TAKEN A
TOLL.
I DON'T THINK IT'S UNEXPECTED
WHEN YOU HAVE 40% WHO DON'T
KNOW, YOU'RE GOING TO BE
VULNERABLE TO THAT.
NOW SOME OF THAT INITIAL IMPACT
HAS HAPPENED, WE HAVE A VERY
TIGHT RACE, AND WE'LL SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN THOSE LAST -- WHAT
DID YOU SAY, 53 DAYS.
>> LET'S GO BACK THEN TO THE
GOVERNOR'S RACE.
47% OF YOUR POLL RESPONDENTS
SUPPORT TONY EVERS, 44% FAVOR
TIM MICHELS, BUT THEN THERE'S
THIS INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE OUT
THERE WITH 5%.
HOW DANGEROUS IS THAT FOR EITHER
ONE OF THESE CAMPAIGNS?
>> WELL, HER NAME WILL BE ON THE
BALLOT.
LOOK, WHAT WE SEE WITH
INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES IS THEY
REFLECT -- THEIR SUPPORT
REFLECTS THE DISAFFECTION FOR
THE TWO MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATES.
AND PEOPLE WHO DON'T LIKE EITHER
EVERS OR MICHELS HAVE A NAME
THERE THAT THEY CAN PICK ON THE
SURVEY.
NOW, THEY'LL HAVE THAT NAME ON
THE BALLOT IN NOVEMBER AS WELL.
USUALLY INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES
GET 1% OR LESS BY NOVEMBER.
AND IN OUR POLLING, WE SEE THEM
POLL IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS IN
AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER AND NARROW
DOWN TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT THE
END OF THE MONTH -- OR THE
CAMPAIGN.
SUSPENDING HER CAMPAIGN WASN'T A
VERY VISIBLE CAMPAIGN TO BEGIN
WITH, I THINK IT WILL KIND OF
DISAPPEAR, BUT IT ALSO IS AN
INDICATOR THAT 7%, 5% ARE NOT
THAT THRILLED WITH THE MAJOR
PARTIES RIGHT NOW.
>> YOU HAVE A NEW QUESTION ON
CRIME, WHICH IS IN THE TOP FIVE
FOR BOTH PARTIES, BUT YOUR
QUESTION THAT WE LOOKED AT GOES
MORE GRANULAR.
YOU ASKED, DO YOU FEEL SAFE FROM
CRIME WHEN GOING ABOUT YOUR
DAILY ACTIVITIES OR ARE YOU
WORRIED ABOUT YOUR SAFETY?
PEOPLE IN THE CITY OF MILWAUKEE
ARE THE MOST WORRIED ABOUT THEIR
SAFETY BY A WIDE MARGIN.
IS THIS KIND OF RESPONSE WHAT
MAKES CRIME SUCH A SALIENT ISSUE
FOR REPUBLICANS PARTICULARLY WHO
ARE HITTING DEMOCRATS SUPER HARD
ON THIS?
>> I THINK THERE'S A CONTRAST
HERE THAT ON THE QUESTION ABOUT
HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT
CRIME, REPUBLICANS ARE QUITE
CONCERNED.
BUT ACROSS PERSONAL EXPERIENCE,
DO YOU FEEL SAFE OR NOT, THERE'S
JUST NO PARTY DIFFERENCE ON THAT
QUESTION.
AND SO I THINK WHAT WE SEE IS
THE USE OF CRIME OR THE WAY THAT
PEOPLE WORRY ABOUT CRIME AS AN
ISSUE THAT'S SOMEWHAT DIVORCED
FROM THEIR PERSONAL EXPERIENCES,
AND THAT, I THINK, IS THE MAIN
THING.
WE ALSO SEE THAT CITY RESIDENTS
WORRY IN THEIR DAILY LIVES AND
ARE QUITE CONCERNED.
SUBURBAN MILWAUKEE RESIDENTS
DON'T WORRY MUCH IN THEIR DAILY
LIVES BUT ARE ALMOST AS
CONCERNED AS CITY RESIDENTS, AND
THEN WHEN YOU MOVE TO MADISON,
GREEN BAY, LA CROSSE, EAU
CLAIRE, THE NORTH OF THE STATE,
CONCERN AND PERSONAL FEAR GOES
WAY DOWN.
SO MOST OF THE STATE, PEOPLE
FEEL PRETTY SAFE IN THEIR DAILY
LIVES AND AREN'T AS CONCERNED,
BUT IN THE CITY AND THE SUBURBS
AROUND MILWAUKEE, CONCERN IS
HIGH IN BOTH AND PERSONAL
CONCERN, PERSONAL FEAR IS
ESPECIALLY HIGH IN THE CITY,
WHERE IT'S ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT.
>> LET'S GO TO THE ISSUE OF
ABORTION.
YOU ASKED IN THIS POLL QUESTION,
DO YOU THINK WISCONSIN SHOULD OR
SHOULD NOT ALLOW A WOMAN TO
OBTAIN A LEGAL ABORTION IF SHE
BECAME PREGNANT AS A RESULT OF A
RAPE O OR INCEST?
OVERALL, 83 PEST SAID WISCONSIN
SHOULD ALLOW WITH EVEN 70% OF
REPUBLICANS SAYING YES AND ALSO
A TOTAL OF 63% OF RESPONDENTS,
INCLUDING REPUBLICANS, OPPOSE
THE OVERTURNING OF ROE V. WADE.
IS THIS WHY ABORTION IS PROVING
TO BE A DIFFICULT ISSUE FOR
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES?
>> I THINK IT CLEARLY IS.
THIS IS WHERE BEING PRO-LIFE HAS
NOT NECESSARILY MEANT WANTING
THESE EXTREMELY SEVERE
RESTRICTIONS WITHOUT EXCEPTIONS
FOR RAPE AND INCEST.
WE ADDED THAT QUESTION PRECISELY
BECAUSE IT'S A REAL LEGAL ISSUE
BEFORE THE STATE RIGHT NOW WITH
OUR LAW FROM 1849 AND WE DON'T
KNOW WHAT WILL GO INTO EFFECT.
I DO THINK IT SHOWS THAT THERE'S
BROAD SUPPORT ACROSS PARTY FOR
RAPE AND INCEST EXCEPTIONS.
THE CHALLENGE FOR LAWMAKERS AND
ESPECIALLY REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS
IS HOW TO DEAL WITH THAT PUBLIC
OPINION WHEN YOU'VE ALSO SPENT A
CAREER BEING DEDICATED TO
PRO-LIFE POSITIONS.
IT'S A DILEMMA FOR THEM QUITE A
BIT NOW HERE IN THE STATE AND
ELSEWHERE.
>> ALL RIGHT, CHARLES FRANKLIN,