THANKS FOR YOUR EXPERTISE.
>> THANK YOU.
>> THIS WEEK MARKS THE
CELEBRATION OF UKRAINE'S
INDEPENDENCE IN 1991.
AND CAME ON THE SAME DAY THAT
MARKED SIX MONTHS SINCE RUSSIA
INVADED UKRAINE.
IN GREEN BAY, DOZENS GATHERED TO
SHOW SUPPORT AND SOLIDARITY.
THE U.S. HAS SENT MORE THAN
$10 BILLION OF MILITARY AID TO
UKRAINE WITH BILLIONS MORE TO
COME.
BUT THE HUMAN TOLL IN DEATH AND
DISPLACEMENT AND THE RAVAGING OF
THE LANDSCAPE, WHEN AND HOW WILL
IT END?
WE CHECK IN WITH PROFESSOR
ANDREY IVANOV, SPECIALTY IS
RUSSIA AND THE SOVIET UNION IN
UW-PLATTEVILLE, AND IS ALSO
UKRAINIAN, AND HE AND HIS FAMILY
MADE A HARROWING ESCAPE.
HOW IS YOUR FAMILY DOING?
>> THEY ARE FINE.
SOME OF THEM ARE HERE, AND
OTHERS ARE STILL WAITING TO COME
FROM GERMANY, SO I'M -- I'M
AWAITING THEIR ARRIVAL.
>> WHAT IS IT LIKE FOR CIVILIANS
STILL INSIDE UKRAINE AT THIS
TIME?
>> IT IS VERY DIFFICULT.
THE ECONOMIC PART IS VERY
DIFFICULT.
LOGISTIC PART, THE
TRANSPORTATION PART.
THE PANIC OF FEBRUARY AND MARCH
HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED IN PARTS OF
WESTERN UKRAINE AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN UKRAINE, BUT IN THE
SOUTH AND IN THE EAST THE
SITUATION HAS WORSENED
CONSIDERABLY WITH A LOT OF
DESTRUCTION AND SHELLING AND
ACTIVE MILITARY CAMPAIGN THAT'S
STILL GOING ON.
SO WE ARE TALKING ABOUT
ESSENTIALLY NOW THE SITUATION
INSIDE UKRAINE, YOU HAVE KIND OF
TWO UKRAINES.
YOU HAVE UKRAINE THAT HAS
LARGELY BEEN SORT OF NOT
AFFECTED BY THE DESTRUCTION,
IT'S STILL AFFECTED BY THE
MISSILES, BUT THEN THE EAST AND
IN THE SOUTH YOU HAVE PEOPLE
LOSING THEIR HOMES, PEOPLE
LOSING THEIR LOVED ONES, PEOPLE
LOSING THEIR LIVES AND MASSIVE
EVACUATIONS ARE STILL CONTINUING
FROM THE EAST AND THE SOUTH AS
WE SPEAK RIGHT NOW.
>> I'VE READ THAT RUSSIA NOW
OCCUPIES 20% OF UKRAINE.
I THINK WHEN RUSSIA FIRST
INVADED OBSERVERS THOUGHT THEY
WOULD ROLL IN AND CAPTURE
UKRAINE IN FULL.
WHAT DID YOU THINK AT THE TIME?
>> WELL, WHEN THE -- WHEN THE
INVASION HAPPENED, I WAS -- I
COULDN'T BELIEVE WHAT WAS GOING
ON, FRANKLY.
MY FAMILY WAS AFFECTED AND IN
THE MIDST, THE AREA THAT
SUFFERED BOMBARDMENT AND HAD TO
ESCAPE.
SO FOR ME THIS WAS SOMETHING
THAT AFFECTED ME PERSONALLY, AND
I EXPECTED UKRAINE TO PUT UP
VERY FIERCE RESISTANCE, EITHER
THROUGH KIND OF INSURGENCY
GUERILLA CAMPAIGN IF RUSSIANS
WERE TO TAKE PARTS OF THE
TERRITORY OR ACTIVE WAR EFFORTS,
AND IT'S BEEN A COMBINATION OF
BOTH, AND I'M VERY GLAD THAT THE
RESISTANCE CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN
SUCCESSFUL IN MANY PARTS OF
UKRAINE BUT I'M ALSO VERY
DISHEARTENED THAT THE RUSSIANS
WERE ABLE TO MAKE SO MUCH
PROGRESS IN OTHER PARTS OF
UKRAINE AND THE SOUTH AND THE
EAST IN PARTICULAR.
>> HOW DO YOU THINK THIS WILL
PROGRESS?
>> I DON'T HAVE A CRYSTAL BALL.
I'M NOT A NOSTRADAMUS.
IT'S HARD TO TELL.
THE LONG-TERM SCENARIO WITH
WESTERN SUPPORT, WITH WESTERN
AND ESPECIALLY AMERICAN HELP
LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR UKRAINE.
AND IT LOOKS VERY BAD FOR
RUSSIA.
THE SHORT-TERM SCENARIO, TALKING
ABOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS
WITH WINTER COMING AND THE GAS
AND OIL CRISIS AND ENERGY
CRISIS, THE SHORT-TERM SCENARIO
LOOKS VERY DIFFICULT FOR
UKRAINE, AND SORT OF FAVORS
RUSSIA, AND SO WE HAVE A
LONG-TERM AND A SHORT-TERM
SCENARIO.
THE QUESTION IS CAN THE WEST
REMAIN STEADY IN ITS HELP TO
UKRAINIAN FIGHT FOR
INDEPENDENCE, AND FOR HOW LONG.
AND THAT WILL REALLY DECIDE THE
OUTCOME OF THE WAR.
>> MORE BROADLY, WHY DOES
VLADIMIR PUTIN WANT UKRAINE WHEN
IT SO CLEARLY DOES NOT WANT HIM?
>> WELL, IT'S KIND OF A POST
IMPERIAL SYNDROME, YOU KNOW.
EMPIRES COLLAPSE AND THEN YOU
HAVE NEW ENTITIES EMERGE.
I'M A HISTORIAN, SO I TALK LIKE
THIS.
SO YOU KNOW, THERE ARE A LOT OF
PEOPLE IN RUSSIA WHO SUPPORT
PUTIN'S NEOIMPERIAL AMBITIONS.
THEY WANT THE EMPIRE BACK.
WHETHER THIS IS THE OLD SOVIET
UNION OR THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE, BUT
THIS HAS HAPPENED BEFORE IN
WORLD HISTORY, WITH GERMANY
AFTER WORLD WAR I, OR HUNGARY
AFTER WORLD WAR I AND SO ON, AND
SO THAT IS SOMETHING THAT IS ONE
OF THE REASONING THAT I THINK
THAT, YOU KNOW, PUTIN WANTS TO
RECREATE AN EMPIRE OR IMPERIAL
SPACE THAT WAS LOST AFTER 1991,
AND SOME MAY ARGUE LOST AFTER
1917.
>> SO, REPORTEDLY AT THIS POINT
IN THE DESTRUCTION IT WILL COST
$200 BILLION TO REBUILD
UKRAINE'S INFRASTRUCTURE AND
HOUSING.
WHAT IS IT LIKE TO SEE THE
DEVASTATION OF YOUR HOMELAND AND
ITS PEOPLE?
>> IT'S VERY -- VERY
DISHEARTENING, VERY DIFFICULT TO
SEE THE PICTURES.
I'VE SEEN PICTURES OF HOUSE OF
MY SISTER THAT RECEIVED A SHELL
IN ONE OF THE AREAS OF THAT
APARTMENT HOUSE, AND SO WHEN I
SEE THAT, OF COURSE THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT I, YOU KNOW, THAT
RELATES PERSONALLY AND IT'S, YOU
KNOW, A MIXTURE OF GRIEF AND
ANGER AND QUESTIONS AND SO ON.
BUT I -- I THINK THAT UKRAINE,
WHICH HAS ENDURED DESTRUCTION
DURING WORLD WAR I AND WORLD WAR
II WILL RISE AGAIN LIKE A
PHOENIX FROM THE ASHES AND FROM
THE RUBBLE OF THIS HORRIBLE
ASSAULT, THIS HORRIBLE INVASION.
AND SO YES, IT WILL BE, YOU
KNOW, THE DESTRUCTION IS THERE
AND IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
REBUILD UKRAINE, BUT YOU KNOW,
SOMEBODY WHO HAS COME FROM THERE
AND YOU KNOW, HEARING STORIES OF
MY PARENTS AND GRANDPARENTS AND
GREAT GRANDPARENTS WHO ENDURED
WORLD WAR II, YES, DESTRUCTION
IS HORRIBLE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
TO REBUILD AFTER DESTRUCTION.
>> PROFESSOR IVANOV, THANK YOU.