>> FRESH OFF THE PRIMARY
ELECTION, VOTERS ARE TURNING
THEIR ATTENTION TOWARD THE
CANDIDATES AND ISSUES THAT WILL
MOTIVATE THEM TO GET TO THE
POLLS IN NOVEMBER.
CHARLES FRANKLIN, DIRECTOR OF
THE MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY LAW
SCHOOL POLL, JOINS US NOW WITH
HIS LATEST RESULTS AND THANKS
FOR BEING HERE, CHARMS.
>> THANKS, THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
>> STARTING WITH THE RACE FOR
GOVERNOR, INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT
TONY EVERS HAS A TWO-POINT LEAD
ON MICHELS, NOW TIM MICHELS IS
REFUTING YOUR NUMBERS AND IS
QUOTED AS SAYING HE BELIEVES
HE'S ACTUALLY UP 5 TO 10 POINTS
ON EVERS.
WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE TO THAT?
>> WELL, I STAND BEHIND OUR
POLL.
FIRST OF ALL, WE ARE
TRANSPARENT, ALL OF OUR
QUESTIONS, ALL OF OUR RESULTS,
ALL OF OUR METHODOLOGY ARE
ONLINE, ANYONE IS WELCOME TO
LOOK AT IT AND BELIEVE IT OR
NOT, BELIEVE IT OR REFUTE IT.
BUT CAMPAIGNS ARE ABSOLUTELY
FREE TO SAY WHATEVER THEY WANT
ABOUT THE POLLING RESULTS.
SO I WELCOME MR. MICHELS'
COMMENTS AS I WELCOME THE
COMMENTS OF ANY CANDIDATE, BUT I
DO MY BUSINESS AND I'M
TRANSPARENT ABOUT IT AND UPFRONT
ABOUT IT.
>> ALL RIGHT.
BY YOUR POLLING, IT IS PRETTY
TIGHT.
HOW DOES THE INDEPENDENT VOTE
FACTOR IN THIS RACE?
>> WELL, IN THE GOVERNOR'S RACE
INDEPENDENTS ARE LEANING A BIT
TOWARD TONY EVERS, PARTISANS ARE
FOR BOTH CANDIDATES, THAT HAS
NOT CHANGED.
TIM MICHELS SEEMS TO HAVE GOTTEN
A FIVE-POINT BOUNCE UP AFTER THE
PRIMARY.
IT WAS A SEVEN-POINT EVERS' LEAD
IN JUNE AND NOW IT'S ONLY A
TWO-POINT LEAD, SO MICHELS HAS
BENEFITTED BY FIVE POINTS ON
THAT MARGIN FROM JUNE 'TIL NOW.
IT'S AN GOOD EXAMPLE OF HOW EVEN
A HARD FOUGHT PRIMARY CAN
ACTUALLY HELP A CANDIDATE.
>> YEAH.
HOW MIGHT DONALD TRUMP'S
ENDORSEMENT OF MICHELS HELP OR
HURT HIM, DO YOU THINK?
>> WELL, THAT'S HARD TO SAY.
WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, 77%
HAVE A FAVORABLE VIEW OF DONALD
TRUMP, SO IT'S CERTAINLY AN
ASSET WITHIN THE PARTY.
BUT TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY, MORE OR
LESS, HAVE AN UNFAVORABLE VIEW
OF TRUMP IN THE PUBLIC AT LARGE.
SO SHIFTING FROM A VERY POSITIVE
EFFECT IN THE PRIMARY TO A
POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE EFFECT IN
THE GENERAL IS AN INTERESTING
PROBLEM AND TRADEOFF FOR
TRUMP-SUPPORTED CANDIDATES.
>> AND THERE IS A LOT GOING ON
RIGHT NOW IN REGARD TO THE
FORMER PRESIDENT, SO THAT COULD
SHAPE THINGS, I WOULD IMAGINE,
GOING FORWARD AS WELL.
OR MAYBE NOT.
BUT IN THE U.S. SENATE RACE,
DEMOCRAT MANDELA BARNES IS UP
SEVEN POINTS ON INCUMBENT
REPUBLICAN RON JOHNSON.
BUT AS YOU KNOW, JOHNSON HAS
WEATHERED THIS KIND OF POLLING
BEFORE AND THEN WON.
WHAT ABOUT THAT?
>> ABSOLUTELY.
ALSO, LET ME POINT OUT THAT
BARNES WAS LEADING BY TWO BEFORE
AND NOW BY SEVEN.
HE ALSO GOT A FIVE-POINT BOUNCE
FROM THE PRIMARY, SO BOTH THE
REPUBLICAN AND THE DEMOCRATIC
PRIMARY WINNERS BENEFITTED, I
THINK, FROM THEIR PRIMARIES.
AS FOR SENATOR JOHNSON, YES, HE
WAS BEHIND IN 2016, BUT HIS
CAMPAIGN STEADILY IMPROVED OVER
THE SPRING AND THEN CLOSED THE
GAP THROUGHOUT THE FALL SO A
GREAT EXAMPLE OF EFFECTIVE
CAMPAIGN THAT ACCOMPLISHED ITS
GOALS.
THE QUESTION IS, CAN HE DO IT
AGAIN.
>> ANYTHING ELSE STAND OUT ABOUT
THE RACE AND THE POLL NUMBERS?
>> HERE AGAIN, THE PARTISANS ARE
SUPER STRONGLY ALIGNED BUT
BARNES IS VERY POSITIVE WITH
INDEPENDENTS, GETTING A BIGGER
SHARE OF THE VOTE WITH
INDEPENDENTS THAN EVERS IS IN
THE GOVERNOR'S RACE.
SO, THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
BARNES IS SEVEN-POINT LEAD AND
EVERS' TWO, COMING PRIMARILY
FROM THE INDEPENDENTS MORE PRO
BARNES.
TROUBLE FOR BARNES, 41% DON'T
KNOW MUCH ABOUT HIM.
34% DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT
MICHELS.
BOTH OF THOSE CANDIDATES STILL
HAVE TO INTRODUCE THEMSELVES TO
A FAIR CHUNK OF THE VOTERS.
>> JOHNSON'S FAVORABLES ARE
UPSIDE DOWN, BARNES MORE
FAVORABLE THAN UNFAVORABLE.
ANY KIND OF AN INDICATOR AT THIS
POINT?
>> IMPORTANT INDICATOR IN THAT
SENATOR JOHNSON HAS BEEN
UNDERWATER MORE UNFAVORABLE THAN
FAVORABLE FOR MANY MONTHS, OVER
A YEAR, MORE THAN THAT.
AND HAS NOT SEEN MUCH UPWARD
MOVEMENT.
ALSO, ONLY 15% SAY THEY LACK AN
OPINION OF JOHNSON, SO IT'S A
SMALLER POOL OF VOTERS FOR HIM
TO MOVE.
IT'S A MUCH BIGGER POOL FOR
BARNES TO MOVE BUT THAT'S A
DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD.
HE COULD MOVE THEM IN HIS FAVOR
OR HAVE THEM MOVED AGAINST HIM
BY THE JOHNSON CAMPAIGN, SO STAY
TUNED FOR THAT ACTION.
>> SO YOU'VE SAID ONE OF THE
MORE STRIKING RESULTS IN YOUR
POLL IS HOW DEMOCRATS AND
REPUBLICANS ASSIGN VERY
DIFFERENT PRIORITIES TO ISSUES.
TAKE, FOR EXAMPLE, ON THE ISSUE
OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IT'S
DEMOCRATS TOP ISSUE AND
REPUBLICANS LEAST IMPORTANT
ISSUE.
DOES THIS AGAIN SHOW THE
ENTRENCHED PARTISAN
POLARIZATION?
>> IT ABSOLUTELY DOES AND IT'S
THE VERY DIFFERENT EMPHASIS
THAT'S BEING GIVEN.
CLIMATE CHANGE STANDS OUT
BECAUSE IT REALLY WAS THE NUMBER
ONE ISSUE FOR DEMOCRATS AND THE
DEAD LAST OF NINE AMONG
REPUBLICANS SO THERE IS A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN EMPHASIS ON THAT.
BUT THERE ARE OTHERS WHERE THERE
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCE AS
WELL.
>> SO, ON THE ISSUE OF
OVERTURNING ROE, FOR EXAMPLE, IT
STANDS OUT TO ME THAT 28% OF
REPUBLICANS OPPOSE THAT AND 62%
OF INDEPENDENTS OPPOSE IT?
HOW DOES THAT PLAY IN EVENTUAL
VOTES FOR CANDIDATES?
>> I THINK ON THE ABORTION
ISSUE, YOU SEE A SOLID MAJORITY
IN THE STATE THAT WISHES THE
COURT HAD NOT OVERTURNED ROE.
YOU ALSO SEE THIS NEAR MIRROR
IMAGE BETWEEN REPUBLICANS AND
INDEPENDENTS, 62% OF REPUBLICANS
FAVOR THE OVERTURNING, 62% OF
INDEPENDENTS OPPOSE THAT
OVERTURNING.
DEMOCRATS ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUS
ON THE ISSUE IN OPPOSITION.
>> SO INFLATION TOUCHES
EVERYONE, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO
91% OF REPUBLICANS AND JUST 42%
OF DEMOCRATS.
IS THIS BECAUSE IT'S THE NUMBER
O
ONE CAMPAIGN ISSUE HITTING JOE
BIDEN?
>> I THINK IT'S THE NUMBER ONE
ISSUE, TAILOR MADE FOR ANY
INCUMBENT PRESIDENT, BLAME THEM
FOR INFLATION NO MATTER WHAT THE
PARTY IS.
IT'S BEEN THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
IN EVERY POLL WE HAVE DONE SINCE
LAST AUGUST.
>> IT'S PRETTY EASY TO
UNDERSTAND AND GLOBALLY
EXPERIENCED, I GUESS.
ON PARENTAL LEAVE, IT'S ALSO
SURPRISING TO ME THAT 65% OF
REPUBLICANS FAVOR IT.
WHAT DO YOU SURMISE THAT'S
ABOUT?
>> I WAS SURPRISED BY THIS.
IN THE REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL
DEBATE, ALL THREE TALKED ABOUT
PARENTAL LEAVE BUT NOT IN
SPECIFIC DETAIL, I THOUGHT IT
WAS IMPORTANT TO ASK ABOUT IT,
GENERALLY REPUBLICANS HAVE
OPPOSED REQUIRING BUSINESSES TO
OFFER PAID PARENTAL LEAVE.
BUT SOLID MAJORITIES OF EVERY
PARTISAN GROUP ARE IN FAVOR, I
HOPE WE WILL SEE MORE OF THAT IN
THE CAMPAIGN AND AFTER IT'S
DEBATED.
>> BACK TO THE CANDIDATES AND
THEIR CAMPAIGNS, HOW ROUGH AND
TUMBLE ARE THESE TWO STATEWIDE
RACES GOING TO BE, DO YOU THINK?
>> OH, I THINK EXTREMELY SO.
BOTH THE SIZE OF THE PEOPLE THAT
DON'T KNOW EITHER TIM MICHELS OR
MANDELA BARNES IS AN INVITATION
FOR THE OTHER CAMPAIGN TO TRY TO
PAINT A NEGATIVE PICTURE.
AND A STRUGGLE FOR THE CANDIDATE
TO MAKE THEMSELVES LOOK POSITIVE
WHILE ALSO CRITICIZING THE
INCUMBENT THAT THEY ARE RUNNING
AGAINST.
NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING IS HARDLY
ANYTHING NEW, BUT I THINK WE ARE
LOOKING AT TWO HARD-FOUGHT
BATTLES ON BOTH SIDES.