READILY AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC.
IN ELECTORAL POLITICS, SENATOR
RON JOHNSON ANNOUNCED THIS WEEK
HE WOULD IN FACT RUN FOR
REELECTION AFTER VOWING HE WOULD
ONLY SERVE TWO TERMS.
HE IS KNOWN FOR MALIGNING
COVID-19 VACCINES, HAS DESCRIBED
JANUARY AS MOSTLY PEACEFUL
PROTESTS AND IS A RELIABLE
DEFENDER OF DONALD TRUMP.
A DOZEN DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
HAVE LI LINED UP TO RUN.
WISCONSIN AS USUAL IS IN THE
SPOTLIGHT WITH THIS ELECTION
REGARDED AS A STATE TO VERY MUCH
WATCH.
DIRECTOR OF THE MARQUETTE
UNIVERSITY LAW SCHOOL POLL,
CHARLES FRANKLIN, HAS SOME
THOUGHTS ON THIS RACE AND HE
JOINS US NOW.
HI, CHARLES.
HAPPY NEW YEAR.
>> HEY.
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU.
>> SO WOULD YOU DESCRIBE RON
JOHNSON AS VULNERABLE IN THIS
ELECTION?
>> YEAH.
I THINK VULNERABLE IS PROBABLY
THE RIGHT WAY TO PUT IT.
IN LATE OCTOBER, WE ASKED WOULD
YOU VOTE TO REELECT JOHNSON OR
VOTE FOR SOMEONE ELSE.
JUST 38% SAID THEY'D VOTE TO
REELECT.
BUT WE ASKED THE SAME QUESTION
ABOUT GOVERNOR TONY EVERS AND
ONLY 40% SAID VOTE TO REELECT.
SO I THINK BOTH INCUMBENTS FACE
THE NEED -- THEY'RE BUILDING
FROM A STRONG BASE, BUT THEY
STILL NEED ANOTHER 10 OR 12
POINTS TO REACH THAT MAGIC 50%
LEVEL.
SENATOR JOHNSON'S FAVORABILITY
IS A LITTLE MORE UNFAVORABLE
THAN FAVORABLE NOW AND THAT HAS
COME DOWN OVER THE LAST THREE
YEARS, SORT OF STEADILY.
SO THAT PUTS HIM IN A VULNERABLE
POSITION.
BUT A LOT HINGES ON THE CAMPAIGN
BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT NOVEMBER.
>> HOW DO HIS STRIDENT POSITIONS
ON THINGS LIKE COVID-19 VACCINES
PLAY IN WISCONSIN, WHICH IS NOW
OVERRUN WITH INFECTIONS AND
HOSPITALIZATIONS?
>> RIGHT.
WE'VE ASKED HOW MUCH DO YOU
TRUST SENATOR JOHNSON FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT COVID AND THE
CORONAVIRUS.
THAT'S DOWN IN THE 30% RANGE
THAT SAY THEY TRUST HIM.
IT'S OVER 50% THAT SAY THEY
DON'T TRUST HIM.
AGAIN, TONY EVERS IS SORT OF THE
REVERSE OF THAT.
ABOUT 54% TRUST HIM AND 30ISH OR
40% DON'T TRUST HIM.
SO SENATOR JOHNSON'S POSITION ON
THAT PLAY WELL WITH REPUBLICAN
VOTERS, AND ESPECIALLY
REPUBLICAN VOTERS WHO ARE
THEMSELVES STEP CAL OF THE
VACCINE.
BUT EVEN AMONG REPUBLICANS WHO
HAVE BEEN VACCINATED AND ARE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS,
SENATOR JOHNSON'S FAVORABILITIES
ARE LOWER AMONG THAT GROUP OF
REPUBLICANS.
SO AT THE MARGIN IT HELPS HIM
WITH THE BASE, BUT MAYBE HURTS
HIM WITH SOME OF THOSE
REPUBLICANS THAT HAVE SOME
DOUBTS ABOUT WHERE THE PARTY HAS
GONE LATELY.
THAT'S ONLY ABOUT 20% OF
REPUBLICANS, SO IT'S A SMALL
MINORITY.
>> OVERALL, THOUGH, AS YOU WERE
MENTIONING, HIS POLL NUMBERS IN
YOUR LATEST POLLING WERE UNDER
WATER FOR FAVORABILITY, BUT YOU
SAID THAT HIS BASE VERY MUCH
FAVORS AND SUPPORTS HIM.
>> THIS IS ONE OF THE THINGS TO
WATCH THROUGHOUT NEXT YEAR'S
ELECTIONS, IS THE BASE OF BOTH
PARTIES.
FOR SENATOR JOHNSON, IT'S A
REPUBLICAN BASE THAT
OVERWHELMINGLY LIKES PRESIDENT
TRUMP, THAT IS SKEPTICAL ABOUT
THE 2020 ELECTION AND AT THE
MARGIN AT LEAST MORE SKEPTICAL
THAN THE PUBLIC AT LARGE ON THE
VACCINE.
AND JOHNSON'S STANDING WITH THEM
IS VERY STRONG.
BUT THE INDEPENDENTS IN THE
STATE, WHO ARE ONLY ABOUT 10% OF
VOTERS, BUT, HEY, WE HAVE A LOT
OF CLOSE ELECTIONS WHERE 10%
COULD MATTER, THOSE FOLKS ARE
MORE LIKE THOSE REPUBLICAN
SKEPTICS.
THEY'RE NOT AS POSITIVE TOWARDS
SENATOR JOHNSON, AND THEY'RE
GOING TO DEFINITELY NEED TO BE
WON OVER IF HE'S GOING TO WIN.
>> IN 2016 HIS DEMOCRATIC
CHALLENGER IN A REMATCH, RUSS
FEINGOLD, WAS POLLING AHEAD OF
JOHNSON GOING INTO THAT
ELECTION.
ARE WISCONSIN VOTERS HARD TO
FIGURE?
>> A LITTLE BIT.
THAT'S PART OF MY JOB, IS TRYING
TO FIGURE THE INSCRUTABLE
VOTERS.
THE THING ABOUT 2016 THAT I
THINK REALLY NEEDS TO BE
EMPHASIZED IS THAT IN 2015, A
YEAR BEFORE THE ELECTION,
SENATOR JOHNSON WAS GETTING SOME
OF HIS LOWEST FAVORABILITY
RATINGS ON RECORD.
HE WAS WELL UNDER WATER, A
LITTLE MORE UNDER WATER THAN HE
IS NOW.
BUT OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS TO
THE ELECTION, HE STEADILY
IMPROVED THOSE RATINGS UNTIL HE
WAS NET POSITIVE BY NOVEMBER,
AND WHILE FEINGOLD LED THE RACE
THROUGH THE WINTER AND THE
SPRING, THROUGH LATE SUMMER, ALL
THE WAY TO ELECTION DAY, WE SAW
IN OUR POLLING JOHNSON CLOSING
THE GAP AND CLOSING IT TO THE
POINT WHERE IT WAS A DEAD HEAT
IN THE LAST POLLS BEFORE
ELECTION DAY.
AND OF COURSE HE ENDED UP
WINNING BY JUST OVER THREE
PERCENTAGE POINTS.
>> SO MEANWHILE LOTS OF MONEY
POURING INTO THIS ELECTION
RATION AND THE ONE FOR GOVERNOR.
WHO IS YOUR MONEY ON IN THAT
RACE FOR GOVERNOR?
<!32768> I T
>> I THINK THERE WE ALSO SEE A
CLOSE RACE.
AT THIS POINT REBECCA KLEEFISCH
IS THE ONLY OFFICIALLY-DECLARED
CANDIDATE UNLESS SOMETHING
CHANGED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
HERE WE'RE SEEING THE MONEY
FLOWING INTO BOTH OF THOSE
CAMPAIGNS.
WE'VE NOT DONE ANY POLLING ON
THAT RACE YET EXCEPT, AS I SAID,
THAT REELECT NUMBER FOR THE
GOVERNOR, 40% WOULD REELECT, A
LITTLE OVER 50% WOULD VOTE FOR
SOMEBODY ELSE AND OTHERS SAY
THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT THEY WOULD
DO.
SO I EXPECT WE'RE GOING TO SEE
TWO VERY CLOSE RACES HERE.
BUT IT'S INTERESTING THAT BOTH
INCUMBENTS OF TWO DIFFERENT
PARTIES ARE NEVERTHELESS DOWN
THERE AROUND 40%.
IT SHOWS THAT VOTERS ARE GRUMPY
AND THEY'RE KIND OF GRUMPY WITH
BOTH OF THE INCUMBENTS RIGHT
NOW.
>> THE GRUMPY ELECTORATE.