MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL
SUGGEST A GRUMPY ELECTORATE,
ACCORDING TO ITS DIRECTOR.
CHARLES FRANKLIN POINTS OUT THAT
ALL SEVEN OF THE POLITICIANS THE
SURVEY ASKED ABOUT RANKED MORE
NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE.
WE CHECK IN NOW ON THE POLLING.
CHARLES FRANKLIN JOINS US FROM
MADISON.
NICE TO SEE YOU AGAIN.
>> THANKS.
GOOD TO BE HERE.
>> YOU SAY THIS OVERRIDING
NEGATIVE MOOD IS A FIRST FOR
YOUR POLLING?
>> WELL, THE EXTENT OF IT.
YOU KNOW, THIS IS OUR 67TH
WISCONSIN STATEWIDE SURVEY, AND
IT'S THE FIRST TIME THAT ALL OF
THE POLITICIANS WE'VE ASKED
ABOUT IN BOTH PARTIES HAVE HAD
NET NEGATIVE FAVORABILITY
RATINGS.
SOME ARE BARELY NEGATIVE, SOME
ARE VERY NEGATIVE.
IT'S INTERESTING THAT WE DID 66
OF THESE THINGS AND NEVER HAD
EVERYBODY IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY.
AND WE DO THIS TIME.
THAT NEGATIVITY IS ALSO SEEN IN
THE RIGHT DIRECTION, WRONG TRACK
NUMBER WHERE 41% SAY WE'RE
HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION,
BUT 51% SAY OFF ON THE WRONG
TRACK.
IT'S A SHADE BETTER THAN TWO
MONTHS AGO, BUT STILL PRETTY
NEGATIVE.
>> SO WHAT IS MAKING THE
ELECTORATE SO GRUMPY, IN YOUR
WORDS?
>> I THINK IT'S A VARIETY OF
THINGS.
THERE'S ISSUES LIKE INFLATION
WHERE 69% SAY THEY'RE VERY
CONCERNED ABOUT INFLATION.
THAT'S UP FROM THE 40s TWO
MONTHS AGO.
SO THIS IS AN ISSUE TO BE TAKEN
SERIOUSLY.
REALLY THE ONLY POSITIVE NUMBERS
WE'VE SEEN ARE SOME DECLINING
CONCERN OVER COVID.
I THINK THAT'S CONNECTED TO THE
DECLINE IN CASES THAT WE'VE SEEN
IN THE STATE AND NATIONALLY OVER
THE LAST MONTH OR SO.
AND THEN FINALLY, WHEN YOU ASK
PEOPLE OPEN-ENDED QUESTIONS,
FEELINGS ABOUT GOVERNMENT BEING
BROKEN AND NOT WORKING IS NOT
THE TOP CONCERN, BUT IT USUALLY
MAKES THE TOP FIVE OR SIX.
SO I THINK THIS COMBINATION OF
THINGS COUPLED WITH, YOU KNOW,
NOT ESPECIALLY GREAT ECONOMIC
NEWS, NOT GREAT VIRUS NEWS, ALL
OF THAT IS PART OF THE
GRUMPINESS.
>> ALL RIGHT.
WELL, LET'S SPIN THROUGH SOME OF
THE TELLING RESULTS THEN.
THE POLL FROM LATE OCTOBER FINDS
THAT WHEN YOU ASKED WHETHER THEY
WOULD VOTE TO REELECT TELECT TOS
OR RON JOHNSON, 53% SAID NO TO
EVERS AND 52% SAID NO TO
JOHNSON.
IT'S KIND OF EQUAL PARTISAN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE NEGATIVE
FEELINGS.
ARE THESE NUMBERS A SURPRISE TO
YOU AT ALL?
>> THEY ARE A LITTLE BIT, AND
ESPECIALLY IN THIS WAY.
IF I TOLD YOU THAT A DEMOCRATIC
POLITICIAN WAS AT 40%, WHAT
WOULD YOU THINK THE REPUBLICAN
POLITICIAN ON THE SAME SURVEY
WOULD BE?
I THINK YOU WOULD THINK THEY'D
BE AT 60% BECAUSE WE'RE SO
POLARIZED.
SO TO FIND BOTH OF THEM
SUFFERING EQUAL OPPORTUNITY
GRUMPINESS IS I THINK A KIND OF
TELLING THING.
PEOPLE WITHIN EACH OF THEIR
PARTIES ARE STILL STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH EVERS AND OF
JOHNSON, AND THE OPPOSITE PARTY
IS JUST BITTERLY NEGATIVE, BUT
IT'S INDEPENDENTS WHO ARE NOT
HAPPY WITH EITHER OF THEM AND
SAY THEY WOULD VOTE FOR SOMEONE
ELSE.
LET ME HURRY TO SAY THAT WE
ASKED THIS QUESTION TO GET THE
BASELINE SUPPORT OF THESE FOLKS.
SOMEONE ELSE IS ALWAYS LEFT TO
YOUR IMAGINATION OF HOW
WONDERFUL THEY CAN BE.
>> RIGHT.
>> BY NO MEANS DO I THINK EITHER
OF THESE WOULD GET 40% OF THE
VOTE IN AN ELECTION IF WE
ACTUALLY HAD ONE.
BUT THAT 40% DOES SET THE
BASELINE OF THE PEOPLE THAT ARE
PRETTY HAPPY WITH BOTH OF THESE
AND THE 52% OR 53% SAYS THERE'S
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHALLENGER
TO BREAK THROUGH.
WE HAVE 12 MONTHS FOR THAT
CHALLENGER TO EMERGE.
>> SPEAKING OF WHICH, LET'S TAKE
A LOOK AT OUR NEXT SLIDE, WHICH
HAS TO DO WITH JOE BIDEN, HIS
JOB APPROVAL.
HIS RATING SITS AT 43%.
53% DISAPPROVAL.
WHAT DO YOU THINK THE BIGGEST
FACTOR IS HERE AND DID IT FACTOR
SAY IN THE VIRGINIA GOVERNOR'S
RACE?
>> OH, I THINK IT DOES FACTOR IN
THE VIRGINIA RACE AND IN OTHER
POLITICAL SITUATIONS.
THE PRESIDENT DOES ALWAYS
INFLUENCE MIDTERM AND OFF-YEAR
ELECTIONS.
BIDEN'S APPROVAL HAS FALLEN.
IT WAS AT ABOUT 49% IN AUGUST, A
LITTLE BIT POSITIVE IN AUGUST.
BUT, REMEMBER, AUGUST WAS THE
MONTH OF THE AFGHAN WITHDRAWAL,
WHICH SAW HIS NUMBERS FALL
PRETTY SHARPLY NATIONALLY.
ALSO SEPTEMBER WITH THE SURGE IN
THE VIRUS, WAS AN IMPORTANT
TIME.
AND FINALLY, WE HAVE THE
CONGRESS WHICH HAS AS OF THIS
MOMENT, HAS NOT PASSED EITHER OF
THE INFRASTRUCTURE OR THE
RECONCILIATION BILLS.
SO THERE'S ALSO A SENSE THAT
WASHINGTON'S NOT WORKING EVEN IF
IT ACTUALLY IS WORKING.
IT'S JUST REALLY SLOW.
>> RIGHT.
WELL, LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THIS
NEXT ONE.
IT SEEMS LIKE IT'S A PRIZE GIVEN
ALL THE OXYGEN BEING GIVEN TO
INVESTIGATIONS AND ALLEGATIONS
IN WISCONSIN AROUND THE 2020
ELECTION.
A FULL 65% OF RESPONDENTS SAY
THEY HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE 2020
ELECTION, WITH 32% SAYING THAT
THEY DON'T.
WHAT STANDS OUT IN THAT KIND OF
RESPONSE FOR YOU?
>> HERE'S WHERE THE PARTISAN
SPLIT IS JUST OVERWHELMING.
64% OF REPUBLICANS SAY THEY
DON'T HAVE CONFIDENCE, BUT 99%
OF DEMOCRATS SAY THEY DO.
BOTH OF THOSE LINE UP WITH
WHETHER YOUR PARTY WON OR DIDN'T
WIN THE ELECTION PRETTY CLEARLY.
BUT AMONG INDEPENDENTS, WHICH
CAN BE AN IMPORTANT GROUP IN A
CLOSELY-DIVIDED STATE LIKE THIS,
TWO-THIRDS, 67%, SAY THEY'RE
CONFIDENT IN THE ELECTION
OUTCOME.
JUST 30% ARE NOT.
AND THAT I THINK IS REALLY AN
IMPORTANT POLITICAL ISSUE
BECAUSE IT SAYS THIS ISSUE IS
BURNING WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY, BUT IT'S REALLY NOT
BURNING WITH THE GENERAL
ELECTORATE.
INTERESTINGLY, WE FOUND THAT
TWO-THIRDS HAD NOT HEARD ENOUGH
ABOUT THE GABLEMAN INVESTIGATION
TO HAVE AN OPINION LOOKING INTO
THE ELECTION, BUT THAT DON'T
KNOW RATE WAS ACTUALLY HIGHER.
72% OF REPUBLICANS HAD NOT HEARD
OF THAT INVESTIGATION.
SO YOU HAVE THE PEOPLE THAT ARE
MOST CONCERNED ACTUALLY PAYING
THE LEAST ATTENTION TO THE
INVESTIGATION THAT'S ONGOING.
>> THAT IS ACTUALLY A REALLY
STUNNING NUMBER, BUT MAYBE IT IS
JOURNALISTS AND OTHERS THAT PAY
MORE ATTENTION TO THAT THAN THE
PEOPLE THAT ARE INTERESTED AND
SPER HEADING IT THEMSELVES.
CHARLES, WE NEED TO LEAVE IT
THERE.
THANKS VERY MUCH.
WE'LL SEE YOU FOR YOUR NEXT