MAPS WILL DETERMINE WHICH PARTY
HOLDS THE POWER IN WISCONSIN.
THE BATTLE OVER REDISTRICTING
STARTED YEARS OVER AND THE
LATEST CENSUS DATA IS FINALLY
HERE AND SO ARE THE LAWSUITS.
JOINING US NOW IS UW PROFESSOR
ROBERT YABLON.
>> GLAD TO BE WITH YOU.
>> LATE LAST YEAR REPUBLICANS
ASKED THE WISCONSIN SUPREME
COURT TO CREATE A RULE GIVING
THE STATE COURT CONTROL OVER ANY
LAWSUITS RELATED TO
REDISTRICTING.
LAST WEEK, THE CENSUS DATA COMES
OUT AND IMMEDIATELY THE
DEMOCRATS FILED A LAWSUIT IN
FEDERAL COURT.
WHY DID EACH PARTY PICK THEIR
FAVORITE COURT HERE?
>> YOU KNOW, THESE ARE STRATEGIC
CALCULATIONS THAT EACH SIDE
MAKE.
THE REPUBLICANS LOOK TO THE
COMPOSITION OF THE WISCONSIN
SUPREME COURT AND FELT IT WOULD
LEAN A BIT IN THEIR DIRECTION.
THE DEMOCRATS MAY HAVE THOUGHT
THAT THEY WERE LIKELY TO GET A
FAIRER SHAKE IN FEDERAL COURT.
THESE ARE IMPERFECT JUDGMENTS.
WHO KNOWS REALLY WHERE YOU'D
RATHER BE BUT EACH SIDE HAS MADE
THAT APPARENT CHOICE.
>> YOU'VE CLERKED FOR TWO
SUPREME COURT JUSTICES IN RUTH
BADER GINSBERG AND SONYA
SOTAMAYOR.
WHAT DOES THEIR DECISION MEAN
FOR THE WHOLE PROCESS GOING
FORWARD FROM THE FEDERAL COURT'S
PERSPECTIVE?
>> SO THE CASE FROM WISCONSIN
THAT THE SUPREME COURT HEARD
ULTIMATELY WAS RESOLVED WITH THE
U.S. SUPREME COURT SAYING IT WAS
NOT GOING TO TAKE AN ACTIVE ROLE
IN REINING IN GERRYMANDERING,
THEY SHOULD BE RESOLVED THROUGH
THE POLITICAL PROCESS.
WHAT YOU'RE GETTING NOW IS A
DIFFERENT SORT OF CLAIM SO AFTER
A CENSUS WE LEARNED THAT
POPULATIONS SHIFT.
THERE ARE SOME PLACES IN
WISCONSIN THAT HAVE TOO MANY
PEOPLE, OTHERS THAT HAVE TOO FEW
AND A MAP NEEDS TO BE DRAWN.
IN THE FIRST INSTANCE, THAT TASK
FALLS TO THE LEGISLATURE AND
GOVERNOR.
IF THEY FAIL TO DO IT, SOMEONE
NEEDS TO DRAW A NEW MAP.
SO EVEN IF FEDERAL COURTS ARE
NOT MONITORING PARTISAN
GERRYMANDERNG, THEY STILL HAVE
THIS JOB AND THAT'S WHAT THE
LAWSUITS BEING FILED NOW ARE ALL
ABOUT.
>> IN THE PAST, GERRYMANDERED
MAPS HAVE BEEN OVERTURNED FOR
REASONS OTHER THAN RACIAL
MINORITY MAKEUP, WITH
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
HAVING TO REDRAW MAPS.
I'VE SEEN ANALYSIS THAT SAYS
GILL VERSUS WHITFORD MEANS THE
COURTS MAY BE LESS LIKELY TO
STEP IN ON AN APPEAL OF A MAP.
DO YOU AGREE?
>> IT'S HARD TO SAY IF THE U.S.
SUPREME COURT WILL ULTIMATELY
GET INVOLVED.
THESE ARE CASES ACTUALLY THAT
YOU ARE ALLOWED TO APPEAL
DIRECTLY FROM DISTRICT COURT TO
THE U.S. SUPREME COURT.
THERE IS NO INTERMEDIATE COURT.
THAT MAKES IT MORE LIKELY THAT
THE SUPREME COURT GETS INVOLVED.
WHETHER THE COURT ACTUALLY STEPS
IN IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE
SPECIFIC ISSUES THAT ARE RAISED
AND HOW THE LOWER COURT RESOLVES
IT.
>> NOW, IN WISCONSIN REPUBLICANS
IN THE LEGISLATURE WILL DRAW
THEIR OWN MAPS AND GOVERNOR
EVERS WILL LIKELY VETO THEM.
GOVERNOR EVERS HAS SET UP HIS
FAIR MAPS COMMISSION.
THEY'LL INTRODUCE A MAP THAT
WILL HAVE NO LEGAL AUTHORITY
WHATSOEVER.
DO YOU THINK A COURT WILL PICK
BETWEEN THEM OR DRAW THEIR OWN
VERSION OR WORK FROM ONE OF
THEM?
HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN?
>> IT COULD BE ALL OF THE ABOVE.
IT'S CLEAR THAT THE FEDERAL
COURT WILL HAVE BEFORE IT
WHATEVER MAP THE LEGISLATURE
PRODUCES, WHATEVER MAP THE
COMMISSION COMES OUT WITH AND
IT'S A NEAR CERTAINTY THAT THERE
WILL BE OTHER ACTORS WHO JOIN AS
INTERVENEORS.
THE COURT WILL HAVE ALL OF THOSE
AT ITS DISPOSAL.
OFTENTIMES THE COURT WILL HIRE
ITS OWN EXPERT WHO IT WILL GIVE
GUIDANCE TO AND THAT EXPERT
MIGHT CREATE A WHOLE SEPARATE
MAP THAT'S MEANT TO BE ALL THE
COURTS AND YOU'LL HAVE
SUBSTANTIAL BACK-AND-FORTH ABOUT
ALL THESE OPTIONS.
>> DO YOU THINK IT'S POSSIBLE
FOR SOMEONE TO DRAW A MAP THAT
MOST PEOPLE WILL AGREE IT'S FAIR
OR WILL IT ALWAYS END UP WITH
WHO ENDS UP WITH THE PARTISAN
ADVANTAGE?
>> THERE IS PROBABLY NO SUCH
THING AS AN IDEAL DISTRICT MAP
EVERYONE WILL AGREE IS THE BEST
ONE.
IT'S PRETTY CLEAR SOME MAPS WILL
BE BETTER THAN OTHERS.
YOU WILL HAVE SOME MAPS THAT
MORE PEOPLE AGREE DO A BETTER
JOB WITH CRITERIA THAT WE CARE
ABOUT.
AND THOSE ARE TRADITIONAL
REDISTRICTING CRITERIA, THINGS
LIKE KEEPING COMMUNITIES
TOGETHER RATHER THAN DIVIDING
POLITICAL SUBDIVISIONS OR
NEIGHBORHOODS.
HAVING DISTRICTS THAT ARE MORE
COMPACT, DISTRICTS THAT TRY TO
BE MORE COMPETITIVE.
WE KNOW THAT THESE ARE THINGS
THAT REDISTRICTING PLANS OUGHT
TO ACCOMPLISH.
YOU CAN BALANCE BETWEEN THOSE
FACTORS.
BUT WHEN PARTISANSHIP DRIVES THE
PROCESS AS IT HAS IN WISCONSIN,
YOU'RE LIKELY TO GET A MAP
THAT'S NOT IN GOING TO FAREWELL
WITH OTHER CRITERIA THAT WE
THINK ABOUT.
>> WE HAVE JUST A FEW SECONDS
LEFT.
GIVE ME YOUR IMPRESSION OF THE
TIME LINE.
ARE WE LOOKING AT NEXT
APRIL WHEN CANDIDATES HAVE TO
START FILING PAPERS BEFORE THIS
IS RESOLVED OR COULD IT BE
BEFORE THEN?
>> IT COULD BE A BIT SOONER THAN
THEN.
APRIL WOULD BE THE VERY END ONCE
CANDIDATES HAVE TO START FILING
PAPERS.
THEY NEED TO KNOW WHAT DISTRICTS
THEY'RE GOING TO RUN IN.
BUT THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
PLAY OUT.
THIS IS COMPLICATED.
IT'S GOING TO BE A WHIRLWIND FOR
THE COURTS.
I IMAGINE THEY MIGHT TARGET
SOMETHING LIKE MARCH AS A TIME
WHEN THEY WOULD LIKE TO GET THIS
FINALLY RESOLVED.
>> ALL RIGHT.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR
TIME TODAY.