OFFICE.
I WILL NOT SEEK RE-ELECTION AS
REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT COME NEXT
YEAR.
THE TRUTH IS, I'VE RUN OUT OF
GAS.
>> RON KIND'S DECISION TO NOT
SEEK RE-ELECTION IN HIS THIRD
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT RAISES
THE POLITICAL STAKES FOR
DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS ALIKE.
THE OPEN SEAT ADDS DRAMA TO THE
2022 ELECTION CYCLE THAT WILL
ALSO SEE A HOTLY CONTESTED U.S.
SENATE RACE WITH OR WITHOUT
INCUMBENT RON JOHNSON RUNNING
AGAIN.
MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL
DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN JOINS
US TO TALK ABOUT THE
IMPLICATIONS OF THAT OPEN SEAT,
AS WELL AS SHARE RESULTS FROM
HIS NEW STATEWIDE POLL.
CHARLES, VERY NICE TO SEE YOU
AGAIN.
>> THANK YOU.
GOOD TO BE BACK.
>> SO I WANTED TO START WITH THE
NEWS OF CONGRESSMAN RON KIND NOT
RUNNING FOR REELECTION WAS THE
WRITING ON THE WALL IN THAT
WISCONSIN DISTRICT FOR DEMOCRAT?
>> WELL, WHAT'S HAPPENED IS
DONALD TRUMP WON THAT DISTRICT
BOTH IN 2016 AND 2018, GOVERNOR
EVERS AND TAMMY BALDWIN WON IT
AS WELL.
SO IT'S REALLY THE MOST
COMPETITIVE SEAT IN THE STATE
RIGHT NOW, AND IT'S ONE THAT'S
BEEN MOVING IN A MORE REPUBLICAN
DIRECTION.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS, THIS IS A BIG
LOSS, TO LOSE KIND AS AN
INCUMBENT TRYING TO HOLD THAT
DISTRICT.
NOW IT WILL BE AN OPEN SEAT.
AND WITH DEMOCRATS ONLY
CROWELLINGCONTROLLING THE HOUSET
FIVE SEATS, LOSING ONE LIKE THIS
ONE IS AN IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT
FOR DEMOCRATS.
FINALLY, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT
REDISTRICTING WILL DO TO THAT
DISTRICT.
IT COULD TILT IT IN A MORE
REPUBLICAN DIRECTION AS WELL.
>> NOW THE MAN WHO NARROWLY LOST
TO KIND IN THE LAST ELECTION,
DEREK VAN ORDEN, WAS JUST
ENDORSED BY DONALD TRUMP.
IS THAT KIND OF THE WAY OF THE
THIRD IN YOUR MIND?
>> WELL, I THINK IT'S A MIXED
PICTURE.
I THINK CERTAINLY THE THIRD
VOTED FOR TRUMP BY SMALL MARGINS
BUT CONSISTENT MARGINS TWICE,
AND THE ROLE OF THE TRUMP WING
OF THE PARTY WITHIN THE GOP IS A
BIG DEAL.
AND CERTAINLY DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE 2022 ELECTION.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE DISTRICT
HAS SOME SOLID DEMOCRATIC AREAS
LIKE LACROSSE, AND SO HOW THAT
DEVELOPS COULD ADVANTAGE
DEMOCRATS IN TRYING TO SORT OF
REPLICATE THE SUCCESSES IN 2018
RATHER THAN THE LOSSES IN THE
DISTRICT AT THE PRESIDENTIAL
LEVEL IN 2020.
>> THAT WOULD BE THEIR HOPE.
NOW, SWINGING INTO YOUR POLLING,
RESULTS SHOW JOE BIDEN'S
APPROVAL AT 49%, DISAPPROVAL 46%
OF THOSE YOU SUR VAI SURVEYED.
THAT COMPARES TO TONY EVERS'
NUMBERS, 50% APPROVE, 43%
DISAPPROVE.
THOSE NUMBERS DESPITE THE
HAMMERING THAT TONY EVERS GETS
FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
AISLE.
WHAT IS LEADING TO THAT APPROVAL
NUMBER?
>> EVERS, FIRST OF ALL, DIDN'T
CHANGE AT ALL FROM OUR LAST
POLL, WHICH WAS IN OCTOBER OF
2020, WHEN IT WAS AT 50-43 THEN
AS WELL.
SO NO SHIFT FOR HIM.
WITH BOTH BIDEN AND EVERS, THEY
HAVE PRETTY STRONG APPROVAL
NUMBERS ON THEIR HANDLING OF THE
CORONAVIRUS, WITH EVERS, IT'S 54
TO 39, AND THAT'S AN IMPROVEMENT
FROM OCTOBER, WITH BIDEN, OF
COURSE, HE HADN'T BEEN
PRESIDENT, BEFORE IN OUR
POLLING, BUT HIS CORONAVIRUS
APPROVAL IS 54 TO 42.
SO THE HANDLING OF CORONAVIRUS
AS MUCH AS IT IS A DIVISIVE
PARTISAN ISSUE HAS NEVERTHELESS
HELPED BOTH EVERS AND BIDEN.
>> LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT RON
JOHNSON'S NUMBER.
POLL NUMBERS SHOW REPUBLICAN
U.S. SENATOR RON JOHNSON IS
VIEWED FAVORABLY BY 3 35% OF YOR
RESPONDENTS, UNFAVORABLY 42%.
NOW BEING UNDERWATER ISN'T GREAT
FOR A POLITICIAN WHO HASN'T
ANNOUNCED WHETHER HE'LL RUN FOR
RE-ELECTION, SO WHAT DO YOU
THINK HE'LL DECIDE ABOUT RUNNING
AGAIN?
>> OH, I'M SURE NOT GOING TO TRY
TO FORECAST WHAT HE'LL DECIDE.
I'M WAITING ALONG WITH EVERYBODY
ELSE ON THAT.
THIS IS SOME SLIPPAGE FROM
OCTOBER, WHEN HE WAS AT 38-36, A
NET TWO POINTS POSITIVE VERSUS A
NET SEVEN POINTS NEGATIVE THIS
TIME.
THIS IS THE THIRD WORST
FAVORABILITY FOR SENATOR JOHNSON
BUT HIS TWO WORST RATINGS WERE
IN 2015, 16 MONTHS BEFORE HE RAN
SUCCESSFULLY FOR RE-ELECTION IN
2016.
SO I THINK THESE NUMBERS ARE
WORTH WATCHING AND SEE HOW
TREND, BUT IN 2015 TO 2016, THEY
TRENDED CONSISTENTLY UP THROUGH
THE ELECTION VICTORY.
I DON'T THINK WE SHOULD LOOK AT
THESE NUMBERS AND SAY THEY'RE IN
ANY WAY DEFINITIVE FOR WHAT THE
TWEP 2022 ELECTION OUTCOME MIGHE
IF HE DECIDES TO RUN.
>> SO DEMOCRATIC SENATOR TAMMY
BALDWIN'S NUMBERS ARE CLOSE, BUT
AT LEAST RIGHT SIDE UP.
YOUR SURVEY SHOWS THAT SHE HAS A
21% NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE NO
OPINION OF HER, LIKEWISE WITH
SENATOR JOHNSON, IT WAS 23%, I
THINK.
I DON'T GET THESE KINDS OF
RESULTS IN THE "NO OPINION" OR
"DON'T KNOW" NUMBERS IN THIS
CRAZY HYPERPARTISAN ERA.
>> I KNOW, AND IT COMES UP EVERY
TIME WE DO A SURVEY.
USUALLY SENATOR JOHNSON IS IN
THE HIGHER 20s OR EVEN THE LOW
30s FOR NOT RECOGNIZING HIM OR
NOT KNOWING ENOUGH TO SAY.
BALDWIN IS USUALLY IN THE MID
20s.
SO BOTH OF THEM ARE A LITTLE
MORE RECOGNIZED IN THIS SURVEY
THAN THEY OFTEN HAVE BEEN, BUT
IT'S STILL 1 IN 5 OR 1 IN
4 VOTERS WHO SAY THEY DON'T KNOW
ENOUGH TO HAVE AN OPINION ABOUT
THEIR TWO U.S. SENATORS WHO HAVE
BEEN IN OFFICE SINCE 2010 AND
2012?
SO IT IS SORT OF A STRIKING
RESULT, BUT IT'S ONE THAT'S
INCREDIBLY CONSISTENT OVER TIME.
I THINK IN ONE SENSE, THESE
FOLKS ARE OFF IN WASHINGTON OR
THEY'RE ON NATIONAL CABLE TV,
BUT MAYBE THEY'RE NOT SEEN SORT
OF DAY TO DAY IN LOCAL NEWS
COVERAGE OR THERE ARE STORIES
ABOUT THEM BUT SOMEHOW THAT JUST
DOESN'T PENETRATE TO THE PEOPLE
THAT ARE NOT VERY, VERY INTO
POLITICS.
>> I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE
COVID VACCINE STATUS.
ON THE UPTAKE OF THE COVID
VACCINE, ONCE AGAIN, A PARTISAN
SPLIT AS HAS BEEN REPORTED,
AMONG REPUBLICANS, 45% HAVE AT
LEAST ONE DOSE.
AMONG DEMOCRATS, 87%.
WHY IS THIS A PARTISAN THING?
>> WELL, THAT'S THE BIG MYSTERY,
AND THIS IS A BASIC HEALTH
ISSUE.
YOU WOULD THINK THAT THAT'S
CONSEQUENTIAL ENOUGH THAT MERE
PARTISAN POLITICS WOULDN'T
MATTER VERY MUCH.
BUT AS THE ISSUE WAS POLITICIZED
THROUGHOUT 2020, AND HAS
CONTINUED NOW WITH DEBATES OVER
MASKS OR SCHOOLS AND WHETHER
SCHOOL CHILDREN CAN OR CANNOT
WEAR MASKS, THIS ISSUE HAS JUST
PROLIFERATED.
I WILL NOTE THAT OVERALL, WE
SHOWED 68% WHO SAID THEY'VE BEEN
VACCINATED, AND THAT HAPPENS TO
BE EXACTLY WHAT THE CENTERS FOR
DISEASE CONTROL REPORTS AS THE
OVERALL RATE IN WISCONSIN FOR
PEOPLE 18 AND OVER, WHICH OF
COURSE IS WHO WE SURVEYED.
SO I THINK YOU COULD WONDER
WHETHER DEMOCRATS ARE OVERROTING
VACCINATIONS AND REPUBLICANS
UNDERREPORTING IT, BUT CERTAINLY
IN THE AGGREGATE, THESE NUMBERS
TURN OUT TO BE SPOT-ON WITH THE
CDC DATA.
SO I THINK IT'S REASONABLE TO BE
PRETTY CONVINCED THAT THIS
PARTISAN DIFFERENCE REALLY DOES
STAND UP, EVEN IF MAYBE IT NOT
QUITE AS LARGE AS WHAT THE DATA
SHOW, I'M GOING WITH THE DATA.
>> ALL RIGHT.
WELL, CHARLES FRANKLIN, THANK
YOU VERY MUCH AND THANK YOU VERY
MUCH FOR YOUR DATA.
NICE TO SEE YOU.