ARE LITERALLY SITTING ON THE
EDGE OF WHAT COULD BE A MAJOR
CRISIS, THE LATEST THREAT FROM
COVID-19.
EPIDEMIOLOGIST DR. MICHAEL
OSTERHOLM IS DIRECTOR OF THE
CENTER FOR INFECTIOUS RESEARCH
AND POLICY AT THE VR UNIVERSITYF
MINNESOTA.
HE JOINS US NOW FROM MINNEAPOLIS
AND THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING
HERE.
>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
>> SO THE LAST TIME WE SPOKE
WITH YOU IN MARCH OF THIS YEAR
YOU SAID WE'RE DOING EVERYTHING
BUT TURNING OVER OUR CREDIT
CARDS TO THIS VIRUS, GIVING IT
EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO BE
TRANSMITTED AND THAT WAS BEFORE
THE DELTA VARIANT BECAME THE
DOMINANT STRAIN IN THE U.S.
WHAT ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW
AND WHERE DO YOU SEE THIS GOING?
>> MY COMMENTS BACK THERE WERE
REFERRING TO THE VARIANTS IN
GENERAL.
IN NOVEMBER LAST YEAR WE
RECOGNIZED THAT THESE MUTATED
VIRUSES HAD TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON
HOW INFECTIOUS THE VIRUS COULD
BE, WHETHER IT CAUSED MORE
SEVERE ILLNESS OR WHETHER IT
EVEN HAD THE ABILITY TO EVADE
THE IMMUNE ABILITY OF THE
VACCINE.
WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THEN IS WE
HAVE SEEN ADDITIONAL VARIANTS
SPIN OUT THAT HAVE BEEN EVEN
MORE CONCERNING.
THIS PARTICULAR VARIANT, DELTA,
IS ONE OF THE MOST INFECTIOUS
VIRUSES ANY OF US HAVE EVER
SEEN.
IT IS NOW 40% TO 60% MORE
INFECTIOUS THAN THE ORIGINAL
ALPHA STRAIN WHICH APPEARED LAST
MARCH AND APRIL.
AND THAT MEANS THAT AT THIS
POINT THIS THING IS GOING TO A
PLACE WHERE NONE OF US HAD
IMAGINED EARLY ON IN THE
PANDEMIC.
WE SAW AN AVERAGE CASE
TRANSMITTING TO 1.5, 1.8 OTHER
PEOPLE, WHICH MEANT THAT THE
OUTBREAK GREW.
WELL, NOW THIS IS TRANSMITTING
TO BETWEEN SIX TO EIGHT PEOPLE
PER ON AVERAGE CASE.
AND SO THE CASE NUMBERS ARE
GROWING VERY, VERY QUICKLY.
AND THIS IS A BIG CHALLENGE FOR
US.
>> HOW DANGEROUS IS THIS
SITUATION THEN FOR THE
UNVACCINATED?
>> WELL, I THINK YOU'VE REALLY
HIT A VERY IMPORTANT NOTE HERE
IN THE SENSE THAT IF YOU LOOK AT
THE WORLD, FIRST OF ALL KNOW
THAT THE PANDEMIC IS RAGING ON
AND IT REALLY IS IN SOME WAYS
ONLY REALLY STILL GETTING
STARTED.
OF THE 6.4 BILLION IN THE LOW
AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES,
LESS THAN 2% HAVE HAD ANY ACCESS
TO VACCINE AND THERE'S STILL A
LOT OF PEOPLE YET TO GET
INFECTED.
SO THIS PANDEMIC IS STILL
UNFOLDING IN THE REST OF THE
WORLD.
HERE IN THE UNITED STATES WE'VE
DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB WITH OUR
VACCINATION PROGRAMS, BUT THERE
STILL ARE 100 MILLION AMERICANS,
LET ME REPEAT THAT, 100 MILLION
AMERICANS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN
VACCINATED AND THEY SURELY SERVE
AS YOU MIGHT SAY THE HUMAN WOOD
FOR THIS CORONAVIRUS FOREST FIRE
TO BURN.
SO THIS IS WHAT WE'RE CONCERNED
ABOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NEXT UPCOMING WEEKS.
AT THIS POINT, ALL OF THE 50
STATES AND THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA ARE SEEING CASE NUMBERS
INCREASES AND FOR SOME OF THE
STATES WHERE IT'S TAKEN OFF
FIRST, THE NUMBERS ARE
INCREASING QUITE DRAMATICALLY.
>> THERE'S A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF
PEOPLE WHO ARE VACCINATED
GETTING SO-CALLED BREAKTHROUGH
INFECTIONS.
SHOULD THIS BE A CONCERN?
>> BREAKTHROUGH INFECTIONS WERE
ANTICIPATED RIGHT FROM THE
BEGINNING.
WHEN WE TOLD YOU THAT THE
VACCINES MIGHT BE 90% TO 95%
EFFECTIVE EARLY ON, THAT MEANT
THERE WOULD BE A SMALL
PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO, ONCE
VACCINATED, WHEN EXPOSED TO THE
VIRUS WOULD ACTUALLY STILL GET
INFECTED AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
ILL.
NOW, THE GOOD NEWS IS IS THAT
FOR MOST OF THESE, IT'S VERY
MILD ILLNESS AND IT'S NOT A
SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE.
SO THE VACCINE IS STILL REDUCING
THE SEVERITY OF THE DISEASE,
WHETHER YOU NEED TO BE
HOSPITALIZED AND EVEN DYING.
THERE ARE A FEW, PRIMARILY THE
ELDERLY POPULATION, WHERE EVEN
HAVING BEEN VACCINATED THEY
STILL GET QUITE ILL AND CAN DIE.
BUT I THINK THE MESSAGE IS TO
GET ACROSS RIGHT NOW IS THAT IF
YOU LOOK AT WHAT'S HAPPENING
WITH HOSPITALIZATIONS, 97% OF
THE CASES IN THIS COUNTRY AMONG
COVID PATIENTS ARE CURRENTLY
AMONG THE UNVACCINATED.
99% OF THE DEATHS ARE OCCURRING
AMONG UNVACCINATED COVID
PATIENTS.
SO IF THERE WAS EVER A
COMPELLING REASON, NOW IS THE
TIME.
PLEASE GET VACCINATED.
IF NOT FOR YOURSELF, BUT YOUR
LOVED ONES, THE PEOPLE YOU COULD
TRANSMIT THE VIRUS TO.
>> DOES THIS KIND OF HALF
MEASURE OF VACCINATIONS LIKE THE
50% IN WISCONSIN MAKE US MORE
SUS ACCEPT SUSCEPTIBLE TO EVER-E
VARIANTS.
>> THE UNITED STATES'S
CONTRIBUTION TO THE VARIANTS
CANNOT BE DENIED, BUT IT PALES
IN COMPARISON TO THE REST OF THE
WORLD, WHO HAVE NO ACCESS TO
VACCINE.
THAT'S WHERE WE'RE GOING TO SEE
THE VAST MAJORITY OF
TRANSMISSION OCCUR.
THE DELTA VARIANT AROSE IN
INDIA.
THAT'S WHERE WE'RE GOING TO SEE
NEW VARIANTS COME SPINNING OUT
OF.
THE QUESTION IS IS THIS IT.
IS DELTA THE WORSE ONE?
WILL THEY GET MILDER AFTER THIS?
WE HAVE NO WAY OF KNOWING THAT.
IT'S HARD FOR US TO IMAGINE
GETTING SOMETHING WORSE THAN
DELTA, BUT IN FACT WE COULD SEE
THAT OVER TIME, THAT THAT IS THE
CASE.
>> MEANWHILE, YOU SAW THE
100,000 PEOPLE ATTENDING THE
MILWAUKEE BUCKS GAME SIX IN
MILWAUKEE.
NOT TO RAIN ON THAT PARADE, BUT
ARE YOU CONCERNED AS WISCONSIN
PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS ARE
ABOUT THAT GATHERING IN TERMS OF
BEING A SPREADER EVENT?
>> I'M ABSOLUTELY CONCERNED.
ANY OF THESE EVENTS LIKE THIS
RIGHT NOW, WHERE PEOPLE DON'T
REALIZE THAT THE DELTA VARIANT
IS AROUND, WHERE WE SEE THE
TRANSMISSION OF THIS VIRUS IN
SETTINGS JUST LIKE THAT, THERE
WAS A LARGE FESTIVAL IN
MASSACHUSETTS TWO WEEKS AGO THAT
HAS RESULTED NOW IN MANY
THOUSANDS OF CASES FROM HAVING
BEEN AT AN OUTDOOR FESTIVAL,
LARGELY.
SO, YEAH, WE'RE VERY CONCERNED
ABOUT IT.
AND PARTICULARLY BECAUSE MOST
PEOPLE HAVE THE SENSE THIS IS
OVER WITH.
THEY THINK THE PANDEMIC IS DONE.
AND IT'S NOT.
WE MIGHT BE DONE WITH THE VIRUS.
WE MIGHT BE TRYING TO RUN OUT
THE CLOCK.
BUT THE VIRUS IS NOT DONE WITH
US.
AND ALL I CAN SAY IS IF YOU ARE
NOT VACCINATED WITH THIS VIRUS,
IT WILL FIND YOU EVENTUALLY.
>> WE LEAVE IT THERE.
DR. MICHAEL OSTERHOLM, THANK
YOU.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR WORK.