- In the 2022 elections the primary in Wisconsin
for Governor and US Senate are now just six weeks away
on August nine.
And Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin
took voters' temperature on the candidates this week.
He joins us now with results of his latest statewide poll.
And Charles thanks very much for being here.
- Good to be here.
- So before getting into your latest polling,
in May your survey found that 69% of respondents
did not favor overturning Roe V. Wade.
Well now this has happened.
Where do voters go with that sentiment?
- Yeah and that 69% was in the national survey.
So those were voters nationwide.
Here in Wisconsin we've consistently found around 59
or 60% favor legal abortion in all or most cases.
About 35% say it should be illegal in all or most cases.
And those numbers have barely budged over the last decade.
I think what the court's decision today does though
is it throws abortion policy back to governors
and legislatures around the country.
And that makes this an issue in which those governors
and legislatures have vastly more control
than they have had for 49 years.
That makes it likely that this becomes
a really pertinent issue in the fall campaigns.
Whether it changes anyone's mind or changes their votes
that remains to be seen.
But it's hard to imagine a world in which these are not
pertinent political issues for statewide elections here
and elsewhere in the country.
- Yeah, indeed.
Let's get now then to the results
of this week's political polling.
According to your results Tim Michels has shot up
to the top now by one, 27 to 26% over Rebecca Kleefisch.
Kevin Nicholson sits at 10% and Tim Ramthum comes in at 3%.
Now it didn't take Michels long to make it competitive
with the front runner.
- No, it seems really clear that there were voters sitting
on the sidelines in the Republican primary that did come
to him quickly, you know, a little over a month
and a half after he got in the race.
Kleefisch came down but by just six points from 32 to 26
while Michels picks up 27%.
So obviously most of what he picked up
came from don't knows which came down from nearly half
to only about a third now.
Nicholson's vote and Ramthum's vote were unchanged
from last time.
So I do think you're seeing not so much Michels
pulling support away from Kleefisch, though maybe some,
but more picking up among those undecideds.
The other thing I just point out is we have two
clear front runners here who are really neck and neck
and a third of the votes still undecided in that race.
- Yeah, meanwhile Evers beats all of
the Republican candidates by a little.
So how key will turnout be?
- Well turnout could matter a lot.
Evers has a little bit of an edge,
four points over Kleefisch, seven over Michels.
But if you look at only the voters who are most enthusiastic
about voting it's possible to flip that
and put the Republicans just slightly ahead.
So right now I would say Evers has a little bit of an edge
but turnout could make a difference depending on
how small the turnout is this fall,
or how energized voters who might normally sit out
the fall election become due to various issues
over the course of the campaign.
- In the democratic primary
for US Senate Mandela Barnes is still on top with 25%,
Alex Lasry at 21%, Sarah Godlewski 9%.
And Tom Nelson is at 7%.
In this race here poll shows 36% on undecided.
What's it take in this race
for a candidate to break through?
- Well at the moment I think it's just a matter of time.
In past primaries we have seen a lot of voters wait
until July to make up their minds.
So I don't think either of these two party races,
Republican and Democrats are unusual with about
a third undecided at this point.
But I do think in both races we see two clear front runners
who are pretty close to each other,
and then a second tier aways back.
Now in the democratic side everybody picked up some support
over the last two months,
but the margin between Barnes
and Lasry is four points this time.
It was three points last time.
So no breakaway at all there.
Just as on the Republican side we saw Michels take a lot
of votes but not a breakaway candidacy there either.
- Again in this race all the dems with the exception
of Lasry and you're polling are up on Johnson.
Is this a surprise?
- I think it's a surprise only to the extent
that Senator Johnson's favorability numbers
have been underwater more unfavorable than favorable
for a good long while now.
But I think you're also seeing the power of party
to bring people back to their party's candidate.
We see that with Johnson,
among Republicans he gets a significantly higher percentage
of the vote than he gets favorability ratings
from Republicans.
Among Evers it's Democrats who are disapproving
but are nevertheless voting for him.
And so in both of these cases you see the power of party.
- Let's talk about enthusiasm.
Republicans have more of it than Democrats
and independents coming into these elections.
And you spoke a little bit about that
but what happens when there's this enthusiasm gap like this?
- Yeah, I think there are a couple of things
that are going on.
One is of course national conditions where
President Biden's job approval is at it's lowest level
that we've measured here in the state.
Concern about inflation is sky high.
And those things are drags on Democrats generally.
And we see it in the national surveys where Republicans
are more enthused about voting.
Here in Wisconsin we saw no difference two months ago
and a small Republican advantage in February.
But this month we're seeing a bigger gap.
Again, I stress does this continue?
Because both parties are gonna be working incredibly hard
to reach voters and motivate them
and turn them out this fall.
So in that sense, where turnout ends up is very much
in the hands of the voters themselves
and of the parties and the campaigns.
- I wanna talk about Senator Johnson's favorability ratings.
They are way upside down and they have been for a while.
How do you think the headlines around false selectors
this week which happened after you were in the field
plays to these favorable numbers?
- Well it's hard to see it as a positive
but Senator Johnson has been critical of the 2020 election
for a good while.
So at least as far as that goes this is new information
or additional information, but it doesn't dramatically
change the way he's seen as behaving on this.
He's viewed quite positively among Republicans
but very negatively among Democrats.
That means that among Democrats he can't go down a lot more,
independents could go down more.
I think the question would be if coming out of
the January 6th hearings there's more direct evidence
of his role and how voters see that.
Especially in light of the January 6th hearings
that are going on and who's tuning into those
and who's ignoring those
- Governor Tony Evers' job approval is right side up
but nowhere near as high as it had been
especially during the height of the pandemic,
but the right track wrong track direction question
that you had is something different.
- Yeah he's down a net of three points.
He was six points more approved than disapproved
two months ago, he's three points more approved
than disapproved now.
He's only been underwater on this question one time
since he took office, that was last October,
but the size of his net approval has varied
from time to time.
And right now it's pretty,
pretty tight with a net plus three.
You know as the campaign starts
and the advertising barrage starts in the fall
we'll see how much he can sustain that approval.
I will say that over his time in office,
on average he's done better on job approval
than Governor Walker did in his two terms.
But here we are getting into the campaign.
Those national influences we talked about are going on
and the campaign itself will also be a factor.
And of course Governor Evers will argue his own
positive case for what he's done.
So that could raise his approval
just as the attacks could lower it.
And lastly you polled on issues as well in this survey,
including inflation which you found to be the number one
issue of concern.
So that doesn't seem like a surprise.
- No, not at all, but it is so dominant as you see.
95% are either very concerned or somewhat concerned.
The second highest issue is about 55% very concerned.
So inflation really is just sort of
becoming the environment.
Everybody's concerned about it, Republicans especially so.
Democrats a little less.
I think that reflects the power of party to shift
how we view the economy
rather than how we experience inflation.
I'm pretty sure we're all paying about the same price
at the pump regardless of party.
- Yeah, absolutely.
Alright Charles Franklin thank you.
Thank you very much.
- Thank you.