TAKEN ON TUESDAY.
UNTIL THEN, THE BEST SNAPSHOT OF
THE WISCONSIN VOTE IS THE
MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL.
POLL DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN
JOINS US NOW WITH THE RESULTS OF
HIS FINAL 2020 SURVEY.
CHARLES, THANKS VERY MUCH FOR
BEING HERE.
>> GOOD TO BE HERE.
THANK YOU.
>> SO WE WANTED TO LOOK FIRST AT
YOUR LIKELY VOTERS MATCH-UPS AND
WHAT YOU SHOW IS THAT IT'S 48%
BIDEN TO 43% TRUMP, 2% JORGENSEN
AND 7% NO ANSWER BASICALLY.
YOU SAY THAT IT'S TURNOUT.
DESCRIBE WHAT YOU MEAN.
>> FIRST OF ALL, WE TASKED
WHETHER IT MATTERED.
WE COULD HAVE A VERY HIGH
TURNOUT.
I'M EXPECTING US TO SET A RECORD
FOR TURNOUT AND THAT'S WHAT OUR
RESPONDENTS ARE TELLING US.
BUT WE CHECKED IT.
WHAT IF YOU HAD A SUPER HIGH
TURNOUT?
THEN THAT FIVE-POINT MARGIN GOS
TO FOUR.
IF WE HAD LOWER TURNOUT IT GOS
TO THREE-POINT MARGIN.
THAT'S JUST TWO POINTS BETWEEN
THE LOWEST AND HIGHEST TURNOUT.
I'M STICKING WITH THE FIVE THAT
CAPTURES OUR LIKELY VOTERS.
ALSO, OF THAT 7% THAT DIDN'T
TELL US WHO THEY'D VOTE FOR,
WHEN WE LOOK AT HOW THOSE PEOPLE
FEEL ABOUT BIDEN AND FEEL ABOUT
TRUMP, TURNS OUT THEY SPLIT
EQUALLY BETWEEN LIKING ONE AND
NOT THE OTHER AND VICE VERSA.
BIDEN GOES UP TO 50 AND TRUMP
GOES UP TO 45 IF WE ALLOCATE
THEM BUT STILL KEEPS THE SAME
FIVE-POINT MARGIN.
>> HAS THERE BEEN ANYTHING SINCE
YOU WERE IN THE FIELD THAT YOU
FEEL MOVES THE NEEDLE FOR EITHER
CANDIDATE AT THIS POINT?
>> ALL YEAR WE'VE BEEN LOOKING
AT MAJOR EVENTS THAT HAVEN'T
MOVED THE NEEDLE MUCH.
I DON'T THINK WE'RE AT A STAGE
WHERE SOMETHING, A LAST-SECOND
SURPRISE COULD REALLY SHIFT
THINGS.
I THINK IT'S MORE A QUESTION OF
DO VOTERS THAT ARE WHO ARE THINKING OF
CROSSING PARTY LINES.
TURNOUT, WE'VE LOOKED FOR HIGH
AND LOW TURNOUT.
IS THERE AN UNEQUAL SURGE IN
TURNOUT ON ELECTION DAY THAT
WE'VE NOT CAPTURED.
THOSE ARE THE THINGS THAT COULD
STILL SHIFT THE RESULTS.
>> NOW, LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT
EARLY VOTERS.
IN YOUR POLL, 64% OF THOSE EARLY
VOTERS GO TO BIDEN, 25% TO
TRUMP.
THESE NUMBERS ARE OBVIOUSLY
LOPSIDED, BUT NOT THE END OF THE
STORY BECAUSE, AGAIN, IN-PERSON
VOTING.
>> AND IN-PERSON VOTERS ARE
GOING 35 FOR BIDEN, 56 FOR
TRUMP.
A LITTLE BIT NARROWER.
THE OTHER THING IS THE EARLY
VOTE HAS GOTTEN A BIT TIGHTER
OVER TIME.
IN THE SUMMER, FAR MORE
DEMOCRATS EXPECTED TO VOTE
EARLY.
BUT AS WE'VE GONE THROUGH THE
FALL, MORE REPUBLICANS HAVE IN
FACT VOTED EARLY.
MORE DEMOCRATS HAVE SHIFTED TO
VOTING EITHER IN PERSON ON
ELECTION DAY OR MAYBE EARLY IN
PERSON.
AS A RESULT, THAT MARGIN HAS
NARROWED A LITTLE BIT FROM A
MONTH AGO WHEN IT WAS OVER 70%
GOING FOR BIDEN IN THE EARLY
VOTE.
>> I WANT TO JUMP TO TRUMP'S
HANDLING OF CORONAVIRUS.
58% DISAPPROVE OF THAT, 40%
APPROVE.
THIS HAS SLIPPED AS CASES HAVE
SURGED.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY ACUTE IN
WISCONSIN.
>> YES, IT IS.
THE CASES HAVE BEEN RISING FOR
TWO MONTHS.
THIS IS NOW TRUMP'S LOWEST NET
APPROVAL ON HIS HANDLING OF THE
VIRUS SINCE MARCH, WHEN HE WAS
NET POSITIVE AT 51% APPROVAL.
IT'S BEEN GOING DOWN EVER SINCE.
AND THIS IS NOW HIS WEAKEST AREA
OF APPROVAL, SLIGHTLY WORSE THAN
HIS HANDLING OF PROTESTS, WORSE
THAN HIS OVERALL AND A LOT WORSE
THAN HIS OVERALL -- THAN HIS
ECONOMIC APPROVAL.
>> YEAH.
AND WE SHOULD POINT OUT THAT HE
STILL DOES WELL ON THAT ECONOMIC
APPROVAL, BUT WE NEED TO LEAVE
IT THERE.
CHARLES