ON THE BALLOT FOR PRESIDENT.
POLL DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN
JOINS US NOW.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME.
YOUR LATEST POLLING WAS IN THE
FIELD RIGHT AFTER THE
CONVENTIONS AND IT APPEARS THE
RACE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
EVEN WITH THE LIBERTARIAN
CANDIDATE IN THE MIX.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
WE ADDED THE LIBERTARIAN THIS
TIME EXPLICITLY FOR THE FIRST
TIME, SO THAT WAS A CHANGE.
BUT WE'VE REALLY SEEN A PRETTY
TIGHT RACE WITH A SMALL BUT
CONSISTENT BIDEN LEAD.
SINCE MAY, WE'VE HAD BIDEN AHEAD
WITH LIKELY VOTERS BY FOUR
POINTS, BY SIX, BY FIVE AND NOW
BY FOUR THIS TIME.
JORGENSEN, THE LIBERTARIAN, GETS
4% THIS TIME.
AND THAT'S KIND OF NOTABLE.
THAT'S ABOUT WHAT THE
LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATE GOT IN
2016.
BUT THE QUESTION IS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE ELECTION, CAN SHE
SUSTAIN THAT SUPPORT.
BUT BETWEEN TRUMP AND BIDEN,
WE'VE JUST BEEN SEEING ONE
PERCENTAGE POINT DIFFERENCES
OVER TIME.
IT HAS COME DOWN FROM JUNE TO
AUGUST TO SEPTEMBER, BUT JUST BY
ONE POINT EACH TIME.
THAT'S NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO
IDENTIFY THAT AS A TREND.
BUT I THINK A CLOSE RACE, SMALL
ADVANTAGE BIDEN WOULD BE THE
EASY WAY TO WRAP UP THE SUMMER.
>> ONE OF THE REASONS REGULAR
POLLING IS WORTHY OF COVERAGE IS
TO MEASURE WHICH EVENTS SHIFT
PUBLIC OPINION.
YOU'VE BEEN ASKING ABOUT
APPROVAL OF PROTESTS AGAINST
POLICE SHOOTINGS.
WE SAW A DROP IN SUPPORT OVER
THE SUMMER, BUT THERE REALLY
WASN'T A CHANGE AFTER THE
SHOOTING OF JACOB BLAKE IN
KENOSHA AND THE PROTESTS THAT
OCCURRED AFTERWARDS, CORRECT?
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
AND I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO
UNDERSTAND THAT.
SUPPORT FOR PROTESTS AND FOR
BLACK LIVES MATTER WAS HIGH IN
JUNE.
THERE WAS AN IMMEDIATE
SYMPATHETIC REACTION, I THINK.
BUT BY EARLY AUGUST, BEFORE THE
EVENTS IN KENOSHA, WE HAD SEEN A
COUPLE OF MONTHS OF CONTINUED
PROTESTS.
WE HAD SEEN SOME IMAGES OF
VANDALISM IN THAT, INCLUDING IN
MADISON AND ELSEWHERE HERE IN
THE STATE.
BUT WE HAD ALSO SEEN ADDITIONAL
EXAMPLES OF POLICE VIOLENCE
AGAINST PEOPLE OF COLOR.
SO THERE WERE BOTH OF THESE
MESSAGES GOING ON AND PRESIDENT
TRUMP HAD ALREADY STARTED
TALKING ABOUT THE PROTESTS IN
TERMS OF LAW AND ORDER AND
VIOLENCE AND REVOLUTIONARIES, AS
HE SEES IT.
AND SO PEOPLE HAD ALREADY HAD
ALL OF THOSE MESSAGES.
THE EVENTS IN KENOSHA WERE
VIVID, DRAMATIC AND IMPORTANT.
BUT THEY WEREN'T NEW.
AND AS A RESULT PEOPLE DIDN'T
CHANGE THEIR MINDS PARTICULARLY
AFTER IT.
>> AND I'VE BEEN DOING
INTERVIEWS RECENTLY AND A LOFT
REPUBLICANS TELL ME THEY'RE
CONVINCED KENOSHA IS AN
INFLECTION POINT IN THIS RACE
AND TRUMP'S LAW AND ORDER
MESSAGE IS RESONATING.
BUT YOUR POLL WAS IN THE FIELD
DURING THE TIME TRUMP
KENOSHA AND THE ONLY PEOPLE THAT
CHANGED THEIR MINDS WERE
REPUBLICANS.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
ABOUT HALF THE SAMPLE, JUST OVER
400, WERE INTERVIEWED BEFORE HE
CAME AND ABOUT HALF INTERVIEWED
AFTER HE CAME.
THERE WAS VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
BUT A BIG MOVE AMONG REPUBLICANS
WHO BECAME MUCH MORE APPROVING
OF THE WAY THE PRESIDENT HAS
HANDLED THE PROTESTS, GOING FROM
65% APPROVAL TO 87%.
BUT AMONG INDEPENDENTS AND
DEMOCRATS THERE WAS HARDLY ANY
CHANGE AT ALL.
THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF PREACHING
TO THE CHOIR AND YOU GOT AN AMEN
FROM THE CHOIR BUT THE CHOIR WAS
ALREADY VOTING FOR HIM.
>> ANOTHER THING THAT OCCURRED
WHILE YOUR POLL WAS IN THE FIELD
WAS A LOT OF KIDS WENT BACK TO
SCHOOL, SOME VIRTUALLY, SOME IN
PERSON.
51% OF PEOPLE ARE UNCOMFORTABLE
WITH REOPENING OF SCHOOLS.
THERE WAS A BIG SHIFT AMONG
PARENTS WITH SCHOOL-AGE
CHILDREN.
>> I THINK IT'S STRIKING THAT
NONPARENTS, PEOPLE WITHOUT A
KID?
IN THE HOUSEHOLD, BARELY CHANGED
BETWEEN AUGUST AND NOW.
BUT PARENTS FLIP-FLOPPED.
THEY WENT FROM THE 40s
UNCOMFORTABLE, 50s COMFORTABLE
TO EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE THAT,
MORE UNCOMFORTABLE THAN
COMFORTABLE.
WE'LL SEE HOW THAT SHAPES UP IN
A MONTH AS SCHOOLS TRY TO REOPEN
OR SOME STAY WITH ONLINE
INSTRUCTION.
>> AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE
NUMBERS FROM AROUND THE STATE,
THERE'S A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
AREAS IN HOW COMFORTABLE THEY
ARE WITH SCHOOLS REOPENING.
>> YEAH.
YEAH.
WE SEE KNOW, URBAN
AREAS ARE MUCH MORE
UNCOMFORTABLE THAN RURAL AREAS.
ALSO, WE SAW THAT AREAS THAT
HAVE HAD SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAKS,
LIKE IN THE GREEN BAY AREA, WE
SAW A LITTLE MORE DISCOMFORT
THAN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
LESS AFFECTED.
>> AND WHEN DO YOU EXPECT TO
HAVE MORE POLLING COMING OUT AS
WE'RE GETTING CLOSER AND CLOSER
TO THE ELECTION?
>> SURE.
ELECTION DAY ROUGHLY EQUALLY
SPACED.
>> CAN WE EXPECT TO SEE ANY
MOVEMENTS?
IS THERE ROOM FOR
OCTOBER SURPRISES?
>> THERE'S LESS THAN THERE WAS.
ABOUT HALF AS MANY PEOPLE SAY
THEY'RE UNDECIDED NOW.
AND LESS THAN HALF AS MANY SAY
THEY DISLIKE BOTH PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATES, DOWN TO ABOUT 8%
THAT DON'T LIKE EITHER TRUMP OR
BIDEN.
IT WAS 21% IN 2016.
THAT REDUCES VOLATILITY, BUT
LET'S REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED
LAST TIME.
SURPRISES CAN OCCUR.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
PROFESSOR CHARLES FRANKLIN,