FROM THE NOVEMBER ELECTION, BUT
IF THE ELECTION WAS HELD TODAY,
THE LATEST MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL
POLL WOULD BE ABLE TO TELL US
WHO WOULD WIN.
WE'RE JOINED NOW BY POLL
DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN.
THANKS FOR YOUR TIME TODAY
CHARLES.
>> THANK YOU.
THE ONE THING WE KNOW THIS YEAR
IS THE ELECTION WON'T BE TODAY.
SO THAT'S A HYPOTHETICAL.
>> YES.
>> NOW LET'S START WITH THE
BIGGEST RACE AND JOE BIDEN'S
LEAD OVER DONALD TRUMP REMAINS
ABOUT THE SAME WITH LIKELY
VOTERS.
>> WITH LIKELY VOTERS WE SEE A
FIVE POINT BIDEN LEAD IN JUNE
WITH LIKELY VOTERS IT WAS A SIX
POINT MARGIN SO JUST THE
SMALLEST OF CHANGE FROM LAST
MONTH TO THIS MONTH.
I THINK WE'VE SEEN A FAIRLY
STABLE RACE, THROUGHOUT THE
YEAR.
FOLLOWING OVER THE LAST 12
MONTHS AS AVERAGE TO BIDEN LEAD
OF ABOUT FOUR POINTS OR SO, IT'S
INCREASED JUST A LITTLE BIT IN
JUNE AND NOW IN THIS FALLING
BACK A TAD TO THE FIVE POINT
MARGIN.
>> NOW ONE OF THE REASONS WE
TALK ABOUT LIKELY VOTERS INSTEAD
OF REGISTERED VOTERS THIS TIME
OF YEAR IS THAT NOT ALL
REGISTERED VOTERS ARE CERTAIN TO
VOTE OR VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
VOTING IN NOVEMBER.
IN YOUR POLLING SHOWS THAT'S
ABOUT THE SAME FOR DEMOCRATS AND
REPUBLICANS, BUT THERE'S A
DROPOFF FOR INDEPENDENTS.
>> THAT IS RIGHT.
THIS IS CHARACTERISTIC,
INDEPENDENTS WHO ARE NOT
PARTISAN ARE ALSO OFTEN AT LEAST
SOME WHAT, LESS INVOLVED
POLITICALLY, LESS SURE THAT
THEY'RE GOING TO VOTE.
WHAT'S INTERESTING THIS TIME IS
DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS ARE
ALMOST IDENTICAL IN CERTAINTY TO
VOTE, AND IN MEASURED ENTHUSIASM
THAT WASN'T TRUE IN 2018 WHEN
DEMOCRATS HAD A BIT AN
ADVANTAGE.
BUT IT'S THE INDEPENDENTS WHO
ARE LESS THAN 10% OF THE
ELECTORATE, BUT STILL THE GROUP
MOST LIKELY TO SWING ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER THAT ARE INTERESTING TO
WATCH HERE.
>> IN THE SWING STATE LIKE
WISCONSIN WHERE THE MARGIN OF
VICTORY IS ALWAYS JUST A FEW
PERCENTAGE POINTS INDEPENDENTS
ARE OF SOLID PERCENTAGE OVER THE
LAST THREE POLLS YOU SHOW
INDEPENDENTS MOVING TOWARDS JOE
BIDEN IS THAT CORRECT?
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
DONALD TRUMP HAD AN ADVANTAGE
WITH INDEPENDENTS EARLIER IN THE
YEAR, AND THEN IN JUNE, WE SAW
BIDEN TAKE A LEAD WITH
INDEPENDENTS AND CONTINUE THAT
IN THIS AUGUST POLL.
THE MARGINS ARE NOT LARGE, AND
THE OTHER THING STRIKING ABOUT
INDEPENDENTS IS HOW MANY OF THEM
SAY, THEY'RE CURRENTLY PLANNING
TO VOTE FOR NEITHER CANDIDATE OR
DON'T KNOW HOW THEY'LL VOTE.
>> AMONG INDEPENDENTS THERE IS
STILL THAT SOLID PERCENTAGE THAT
ARE UNDECIDED THAT WAS UP TO 18%
IN THE AUGUST POLL.
WE SHOULD ACKNOWLEDGE THE LARGER
MARGIN OF ERROR FOR THE NEXT SET
OF NUMBERS, BUT FOR ALL OF 2020
THE REASON THOSE INDEPENDENTS
ARE UNDECIDED IT SEEMS LIKE THEY
JUST DON'T LIKE EITHER
CANDIDATE.
>> THAT REALLY STANDS OUT IN
THESE DATA.
THE REASON WE PUT SEVERAL MONTHS
TOGETHER IS PRECISELY SO WE CAN
ZOOM IN ON THIS SMALL PART OF
THE ELECTORATE, BUT A FAIRLY
IMPORTANT ONE.
SOMETIMES THIS GROUP HAS REAL
LOPSIDED VIEWS OF CANDIDATES,
BUT THIS TIME YOU SEE, THEY'RE
NOT FANS OF DONALD TRUMP, BUT
ALSO NOT FANS OF BIDEN.
IN BIDEN'S CASE, THERE'S A LOT
OF PEOPLE WHO SAY THEY DON'T
KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT BIDEN TO HAVE
AN OPINION YET.
BUT IT'S ALSO THE CASE THAT
NEITHER OF THEM HAVE FAVOR
ABILITY NUMBERS THAT EVEN REACH
20%.
NOW, THE RACE IS JUST KICKING
OFF YOU KNOW WE HAVEN'T DONE THE
CONVENTIONS YET WHICH IS USUALLY
THE POINT AT WHICH PEOPLE START
TO TUNE IN IF THOUGH ARE NOT
CHRONICLEY PAYING ATTENTION TO
CAMPAIGN NEWS.
AND, WE HAVE THE ENTIRE FALL TO
RUN.
SO, YOU KNOW IT'S UNLIKELY THAT
AS MANY AS WE'RE SEEING HERE,
WILL ULTIMATELY NOT VOTE OR VOTE
FOR A THIRD PARTY.
BUT, IT IS AN IMPORTANT POINT
FOR WHERE WE STAND TODAY.
>> WE'LL NEVER ESCAPE THE SHADOW
OF THE 2016 ELECTION SO LET'S
LOOK BACK FOUR YEARS AGO THESE
ARE THE RESULTS FROM YOUR POLL
AUGUST 25, 2016.
HILLARY CLINTON LED DONALD TRUMP
BY JUST THREE POINTS, BUT AT
THAT TIME 21% OF VOTERS WERE
UNDECIDED OR VOTING THIRD
PARTY.
I KNOW YOU HAVEN'T POLLED THIRD
PARTY CANDIDATES BY NAME AT THIS
POINT, BUT IS IT FAIR TO SAY THE
NUMBER OF UNDECIDED OR THIRD
PARTY VOTERS IS MUCH SMALLER
THIS TIME AROUND?
>> YES.
IT DOES SEEM TO BE AT THIS
POINT.
AND WHEN WE ADD THIRD PARTY
CANDIDATES IS WHEN THEY ARE
OFFICIALLY CERTIFIED ON THE
BALLOT SO THAT WILL HAPPEN SOON
AND WE WILL START ASKING ABOUT
THEM BY NAME.
BUT, WHAT YOU SAW IN 2016 WAS A
PRETTY NEGATIVE ELECTORATE THAT
HAD STRONGLY NEGATIVE VIEWS OF
BOTH TRUMP AND OF CLINTON.
DIFFERENT PEOPLE FOR THE MOST
PART.
BUT, ABOUT 20% WERE NEGATIVE
TOWARDS BOTH CLINTON AND TRUMP.
AND THAT HELPED DRIVE UP THE
THIRD PARTY VOTE IN 2016, TO
ABOUT 5 OR 6% STATEWIDE WHICH IS
UNUSUALLY LARGE FOR US IN A
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
THIS YEAR, THERE'S A VERY SPLIT
ELECTORATE ON DONALD TRUMP, BUT
THERE ARE VERY FEW PEOPLE THAT
ARE INDIFFERENT TO HIM.
AS YOU JUST SAW, JOE BIDEN HAS
MORE PEOPLE THAT DON'T HAVE A
STRONG OPINION OF HIM.
SO WE DON'T KNOW HOW THAT WILL
SHAPE UP AS THE CAMPAIGN
DEVELOPS.
BUT AT THE MOMENT, THERE ARE
FEWER UNDECIDED AND FEWER PEOPLE
LOOKING FOR AN ALTERNATIVE THAN
I THINK WE SAW IN LATE AUGUST OF
2016.
>> NOW MOVING TO STATE POLITICS
GOVERNOR TONY EVERS RECENTLY
ISSUED A STATEWIDE MASK ORDER.
REPUBLICANS IN THE LEGISLATURE
HAD BEEN TALKING ABOUT TRYING TO
REPEAL IT, BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY
SHOW WHY THEY HAVEN'T CORRECT?
>> I THINK THEY SHOW THAT THE
MASK ORDER ITSELF IS QUITE
POPULAR.
69% FAVOR THAT ORDER.
ONLY 29% OPPOSED IT.
DEMOCRATS WERE VERY LOPSIDED 93%
IN FAVOR, BUT EVEN AMONG
REPUBLICANS THERE WAS A SPLIT 43
IN FAVOR, 54 OPPOSED SO A
MAJORITY OF REPUBLICANS OPPOSED,
BUT NOT A LARGE MAJORITY IN A
BIG GROUP OF REPUBLICANS IN
FAVOR.
WE ALSO SAW THAT ACROSS THE
REGIONS OF THE STATE, THE ORDER
WAS APPROVED BY MAJORITIES IN
EVERY REGION OF THE STATE.
AND THAT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE
ON SCHOOL REOPENINGS WE DID SEE
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES, BUT ON THE
MASKS, NO DIFFERENCE MAJORITY IN
ALL CASES IN FAVOR MASKS IN
PUBLIC PLACES.
>> WE JUST HAVE A FEW SECONDS
LEFT I WANT TO PUT OUT THIS LAST
POLL ABOUT STUDENTS HEADING BACK
TO SCHOOL.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PARENTS
WITH SCHOOL AGED CHILDREN AND
THE GENERAL PUBLIC IS THERE.
>> YES IT IS, FRANKLY SURPRISED
ME.
THE GENERAL PUBLIC IS 45
COMFORTABLE, 48 UNCOMFORTABLE,
BUT WHEN WE MOVE TO PEOPLE WHO
HAVE SCHOOL AGED CHILDREN IN
THEIR HOME, 53 FEEL COMFORTABLE,
45 UNCOMFORTABLE.
YOU KNOW I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO
MAKE OF THAT.
IT MAY BE THAT PARENTS HAVE MORE
COMFORT LEVEL WITH THE SCHOOLS.
>> ALL RIGHT WELL PROFESSOR
CHARLES FRANKLIN THANK YOU VERY
MUCH FOR YOUR INSIGHT THIS TIME