The Democratic convention in
Milwaukee will move from the
FISERV arena to a smaller
venue and be mostly remote,
with delegates being told not
to come.
Candidate Joe Biden and his
running mate, however, are
slated to accept the nomination
in Milwaukee.
This week the Trump and Pence
visits to Wisconsin come
as their reelection bid heats
up against former Vice
President Biden.
Both candidates hope to claim
Wisconsin this November after
Trump narrowly won the state
in 2016.
This week, a new Marquette Law
School poll gives us an early
indication of how
that race is taking shape
in the Badger State.
Poll director Charles Franklin
joins us with those results.
And Charles, very nice to see
you again.
- Good to be here.
Thanks.
- So as to the race for
president in Wisconsin,
your polling found
that 49% favor
Joe Biden to 41% for
Donald Trump.
How have these numbers trended?
- This is a bump up for Biden
this month.
That eight point margin this
month compares to three points
in March and in May
and a dead tie
in February. So we've seen some
movement up.
But this month, an especial
bump up for Biden.
- And this is trending that way
in polls across the country.
- We've seen it in polling
across the country.
We've seen it in a number of
state polls as well, not
just national polls.
If you think of the last six
weeks, two months, they
have not been filled with good
news for the incumbent
administration, whether it's
the protests or the virus
or the economy.
And so this has not been a good
time for the president.
- Now, your polling shows that
the race is close
in Green Bay.
Would it add up that that's why
he's popping in to Marinette
this week?
- Right. Well, the northern
and western part of the state
have been important areas for
him in 2016
and in building support
this time.
If you look at where he's
traveled in recent events
in Wisconsin, most
have actually been in the
north, northern part of the
state.
Only a couple have been in
the Milwaukee suburbs
recently. Though Vice President
Pence came there recently.
So I think that what we're
seeing is
a return to the area
that has been strongest for
him and that will
be important for his
reelection.
- You mentioned it just a bit
ago, but his approval
for his handling
of the death of George Floyd
and coronavirus is upside
down right now.
- It's not just a little upside
down on the handling
of the protests.
There are three crisis
issues that are going on right
now.
In handling the protests, only
30% approve of the
job President Trump is doing,
58%
disapprove.
On handling the virus, 44%
approve. That's unchanged from
last month.
And on the economy, 50%
approve.
That's still his strong suit.
But that 50% is down
four points from a month ago.
So across these three crises,
you see his
relative weakness and
his declining strength on the
economy.
And with the newest issue,
the protests, a
kind of remarkably strong
net, negative 30
approve, 58 disapprove,
basically two to one
negative.
- Well, in that regard, your
polling shows on
race and police, shows
that overall 61% of
respondents approve
of mass protests,
while 36% disapprove.
Is that a surprising number to
you?
- I think it's a very
interesting number.
You've heard a lot of people
mention the comparison of
1968
with today.
But the reaction to the 1968
unrest and riots and
civil disturbances in the wake
of assassinations
was vastly more negative.
Today, I think what we're
seeing in this
61% approval
number is the sympathy
for the situation
of black Americans
who we have seen in videos
dying at the hands of the
police repeatedly over
the last few years.
There is much bigger
differences over what
to do about the police.
But in this broad sense of
sympathy, 61% is
a solid majority
supporting the protests.
And that's despite the
sometimes violent nature of
some of those protests.
- In terms of what your polling
found about how people feel
about police,
72% of your respondents have
a favorable view of police,
with 18% having
an unfavorable view.
But if you desegregate,
clearly black people have a
much less favorable
view of police.
Right?
- That's right. And this
reflects the different
experience that black
and white citizens and for that
matter, Hispanic citizens have
of the police.
76% of white respondents
have a favorable view of the
polic but that's just 39%
for black
respondents and 50% for
Hispanics.
We also asked about how
do you feel when you're around
the police?
86% say they feel
comfortable around the police.
Just 11% feel
uncomfortable.
But among white respondents,
it's 90% comfortable,
just 8% uncomfortable,
whereas 43% of
African-American respondents
feel safe.
And 44% feel
anxious.
And I think when we look at
items about the police,
it's important to realize how
different the typical
experience of
white Wisconsin citizens
is and how that's reflected
in these very different
perspectives.
- You also had some interesting
questions about what should
be done around
police departments, the
institutions of those
departments themselves.
You asked if they should be
restructured
to include more accountability.
And you're polling showed that
81% of the respondents
supported that,
a very high number.
- It is. And it's an
interesting contrast.
The question says should
"restructure the role
and require greater
accountability for police
misconduct." 81%
behind that.
And there are very modest
racial differences on that.
Big support among white
respondents as well as
among black and Hispanic
respondents.
When we asked the other version
of the question, "Do you want
to defund the police?"
There it's
only 23% that
think we should defund the
police. And there are bigger
racial differences.
So, you know, depending
on how you describe what's
being done, there's
either very limited support
for what sounds like
getting rid of the police.
But there's very high levels
of support for making
significant changes and
requiring greater
accountability.
And that latter is
possible without racial
divides, whereas the
stronger defund shows
significant racial differences.
- Moving on to Governor Tony
Evers' job
approval, you found that
among your respondents, 54%
approve
of what he's been doing
and 38% disapprove.
Now, that has slipped
from a high of 65%.
Is that right? In March?
- That's right.
In March, it was 65.
Then it fell to 59.
And now it's down to the 54.
He was at 51% in
February before the virus
hit.
So he's just a little bit
higher than he was then.
But the high watermarks
that he had in March
and that many governors around
the country had has
come back down to levels
much closer to the normal level
of his support before
the epidemic arrived.
- Well, so what was the 65%
number about?
- Well, I think we saw a very
positive response to
the initial actions the
governor took about
shutting down and sheltering
at home.
In that March survey, 76%
approved of the
way he was handling the virus.
65% approved
of his job overall.
That support for his handling
of the virus has fallen into
the high 50s now.
So it, too, has
come down, though
interestingly, still, 72% say
that it was the right thing to
do to shut down.
Only 25% feel
it was an overreaction.
And that 25% has been
stable from
May until now.
It went up from March to May.
But so people are not
rethinking that shutdown,
even if they're now not as
enthusiastic about the
governor's actions
with respect to COVID.
- As to reopening and
specifically the reopening
of schools, you
found that 54% of
your respondents felt
comfortable with that,
whereas 38%
felt uncomfortable.
But there are some places
in terms of reopening
where people said they are just
not yet comfortable.
What are those?
- There is quite a range on
this. At the low end of
comfort is going
to a big athletic event: a
football or baseball game.
Only 33% are comfortable
with that.
49% are comfortable eating
at a restaurant, 66%
comfortable with shopping.
And it's in the high 80s,
83%
that are comfortable going to a
friend or family member's home
for dinner.
So you can see a lot of that
is comfort on
small groups with individuals
that you know and a lot of
discomfort with the idea of a
very large crowd in a
confined space.
- All right, Charles, we leave
it there. Boy, you know these
numbers cold and you had a lot
of questions in this poll.
Thank you so much.
And again, nice to have you.
- Thank you. Take care.