AN OZAUKEE COUNTY CIRCUIT COURT
JUDGE THIS AFTERNOON SIDED WITH
CONSERVATIVES AND RULED TO
DEACTIVATE THE REGISTRATIONS OF
MORE THAN 200,000 VOTERS FLAGGED
AS HAVING MOVED AND CHANGED
ADDRESS.
THE COURT RULING COMES AS THE
STATE ELECTIONS COMMISSION IS
FIGHTING A LAWSUIT THAT CALLS
FOR REMOVING THE VOTERS.
THE COMMISSION INSTEAD WANTED TO
GIVE THEM UNTIL 2021 BEFORE
REMOVING THEM FROM THE BOOKS AND
SAYS IT WILL APPEAL THE RULING.
>> NOW TO AN INSIDE LOOK AT THE
RESULTS OF THE NEW MARQUETTE LAW
SCHOOL POLL.
EARLIER IN THE PROGRAM WE ASKED
CONGRESSMAN RON KIND ABOUT THE
POLL NUMBERS ON TRUMP
IMPEACHMENT EFFORTS.
WE GET ANALYSIS ON THOSE RESULTS
AS WELL AS OTHER TOPICS FROM
CHARLES FRANKLIN.
BEFORE WE START WITH YOUR
NUMBERS, AS A POLITICAL
SCIENTIST, WHAT IS YOUR REACTION
TO THE IMPEACHMENT VOTE TODAY?
>> WELL, IT DOESN'T COME ALONG
VERY OFTEN.
IT'S EXTRAORDINARY.
MAYBE WE'RE NOT TREATING IT
QUITE AS EXTRAORDINARY AS IT
MIGHT BE.
YOU KNOW, LONG STRETCH BETWEEN
THE 1800s AND JOHNSON AND THEN
NIXON AND THEN CLINTON AND NOW
THIS ONE.
SO THEY'RE A LITTLE CLOSER
BUNCHED TOGETHER THAN THEY'VE
EVER BEEN.
I THINK IT'S ACTUALLY HAMILTON
IN THE FEDERALIST PAPERS WROTE
THAT IMPEACHMENT WOULD ALWAYS BE
A POLITICAL PROCESS AND A BATTLE
BETWEEN PARTISANS.
AND I THINK WE'VE THAT
REALLY IN ALL THREE OF THIS
RECENT PERIOD'S IMPEACHMENT
EFFORTS.
AND THE QUESTION IS DOES IT MOVE
THE PUBLIC AT ALL?
DOES THE PUBLIC COME AWAY FROM
THESE THINGS WITH SOME DIFFERENT
UNDERSTANDING THAN THEY HAD
BEFORE?
IN THE NIXON CASE WITH
WATERGATE, I THINK THAT WAS
TRUE, BUT IN THE CLINTON AND AT
LEAST SO FAR IN THE TRUMP CASE,
DOESN'T SEEM THAT OPINIONS HAVE
MOVED MUCH.
>> WELL, IN FACT THEN, LET'S
TAKE A LOOK AT OUR FIRST SCREEN
OF YOUR POLLING RESULTS THAT
SHOWS THAT THE NUMBERS HAVE NOT
MOVED MUCH, BUT CONSIDERING THE
DEMOCRATS' EFFORTS, THIS SEEMS
INTERESTING.
>> IT IS INTERESTING IN A COUPLE
OF WAYS.
SO 40% PRO IMPEACHMENT, 52
OPPOSED.
IT WAS 40/53 A MONTH AGO.
THAT'S HOW LITTLE IT HAS MOVED.
AND THAT IS OVER THE COURSE OF
TWO WEEKS OF PUBLIC TESTIMONY
THAT SPOKE DIRECTLY TO ISSUES
AND CLAIMS ABOUT WHAT THE
PRESIDENT HAD DONE AND SIMPLY
DIDN'T MOVE PEOPLE'S OPINIONS.
WHAT'S MORE, PEOPLE'S BELIEFS IN
WHETHER PRESIDENT TRUMP ASKED
UKRAINE TO DO AN INVESTIGATION
OR WHETHER HE WITHHELD MILITARY
AID TO PRESSURE THEM TO DO THAT
INVESTIGATION, NEITHER OF THOSE
NUMBERS MOVED VERY MUCH.
AND SO THE TESTIMONY DIDN'T
PERSUADE PEOPLE.
THEY STAYED WHERE THEY HAD
STARTED.
>> WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU?
>> WELL, IT SAYS WE'RE LOCKED
INTO OUR PREEXISTING OPINIONS.
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS A DEEPLY
POLARIZING FIGURE AND PEOPLE SEE
HIM THAT WAY AND THEY'RE FOR HIM
OR AGAINST HIM.
BUT IF THIS WAS NEW INFORMATION
FROM THE TESTIMONY, AND I THINK
IT BROADLY WAS, IT DIDN'T
PROVIDE PEOPLE WITH A REASON TO
CHANGE THEIR MINDS.
>> AS TO THE HORSE RACE NUMBERS,
AND WE HAVE SOME IN OUR NEXT
SLIDE, IT LOOKS LIKE A
STATISTICAL TIE BETWEEN DONALD
TRUMP BETWEEN HIM AND BIDE ANDEN AND
THE OTHERS.
>> MOST IMPORTANT THING TO
NOTICE HERE IS NOT ONLY IS THERE
NOT MUCH VARIATION IN TRUMP'S
NUMBERS.
THERE'S NOT MUCH VARIATION
ACROSS THESE DEMOCRATS EITHER
AND THAT'S REFLECTING THE POWER
OF PARTISAN DIVISIONS OVER TRUMP
AND FOR THE DEMOCRATS THAT -- WE
INCLUDED CORY BOOKER IN PART
BECAUSE HE'S NOT A FRONT-RUNNER
IN THE PRIMARIES, BUT YOU SEE HE
DOES JUST AS WELL AS THE
FRONT-RUNNERS DO.
THAT SHOWS PARTISAN ATTACHMENT
AND ANTIPATHY TO TRUMP AMONG
DEMOCRATS.
>> BUT AMONG DEMOCRATS IN
WISCONSIN?
BECAUSE HE DOESN'T EVEN QUALIFY
FOR NEXT WEEK'S PBS DEBATE,
POLLING AT 2% NATIONALLY.
WHAT IS UP WITH CORY BOOKER IN
WISCONSIN?
>> I THINK WE COULD ASK OTHER
CANDIDATES AND SEE A SIMILAR
KIND OF EFFECT.
I THINK LAST MONTH WE HAD ASKED
BOOKER ON ONLY HALF THE SAMPLE.
KLOBUCHAR DIDN'T DO SO WELL.
WITH WANTED TO SEE WITH A FULL
SAMPLE WOULD WE GET A SIMILAR
RESULT AND WE DO.
>> THE OTHER THING THAT STRUCK
ME ON THAT KIND OF MATCH-UP
POLLING WAS THAT JOE BIDEN HAS
TAKEN A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SLIDE
SINCE YOUR LAST POLL IN OCTOBER.
>> IT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT.
BIDEN HAD BEEN UP BY SIX AND
THEN WAS DOWN BY THREE LAST
MONTH AND NOW UP BY ONE.
SO THERE'S SOME WOBBLE IN THERE.
HE WAS UP A LITTLE MORE IN
AUGUST, AS A MATTER OF FACT.
SO THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A
TIGHTENING ON BIDEN.
THE OTHERS, THOUGH, ARE MOSTLY
HAVE BEEN TIGHT AND STAY TIGHT.
AND WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN THIS
KINDS OF A TOSS-UP RACE IS LAST
MONTH IT WAS TRUMP A BIT AHEAD,
MOSTLY INSIDE THE MARGIN OF
ERROR.
THE MONTH BEFORE THAT IT WAS THE
DEMOCRATS SLIGHTLY AHEAD IN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR.
THIS TIME WE'RE RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE, ALMOST DEAD EVEN ACROSS
THE BOARD.
>> SPEAKING OF RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE, ONE GROUP WE HAVEN'T
TALKED ABOUT ARE INDEPENDENTS.
OBVIOUSLY IMPORTANT IN THESE
KINDS MATCH-UPS.
>> INDEPENDENTS ARE ONLY ABOUT
10% OF WISCONSIN VOTERS, BUT
WHEN YOU HAVE A RACE THIS CLOSE,
THEY'RE REALLY IMPORTANT.
ON BALANCE, THEY'RE OPPOSED TO
IMPEACHMENT, NOT ENORMOUSLY, BUT
ON BALANCE THEY'RE OPPOSED.
AND ON BALANCE, THEY DISAPPROVE
OF PRESIDENT TRUMP.
SO YOU CAN SEE THAT THEY ARE
POTENTIALLY A SWING GROUP HERE.
NOT THRILLED WITH THE
IMPEACHMENT EFFORT, BUT ALSO
POTENTIALLY GETABLE BY DEMOCRATS
GIVEN THAT THEY'RE NOT THAT
APPROVING OF THE PRESIDENT.
>> LET ME GET TO ONE LAST SLIDE
AND THAT IS APPROVAL NUMBERS FOR
GOVERNOR TONY EVERS.
50% APPROVAL, 38% DISAPPROVAL.
BOTH NUMBERS HAVE GROWN.
HOW SHOULD HIS SUPPORTERS FEEL
ABOUT THESE KINDS OF NUMBERS?
>> WELL, THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD
PERFORMANCE.
I THINK MOST IMPORTANTLY HE HAD
BEEN OVER 50 WITH NET APPROVAL
IN THE HIGH TEENS, LOW 20s.
LAST MONTH THAT FELL TO A NET
PLUS FIVE.
FIVE POINTS MORE APPROVED THAN
DISAPPROVED.
SO IT WAS AN OPENING QUESTION OF
WHETHER IT WAS BEGINNING TO
SLIP.
THIS BIT OF A REBOUND THIS TIME
SLIPS THAT WHATEVER LAST MONTH
WAS DIDN'T GIVE US AN INDICATION
THAT HE'S ON HIS WAY DOWN AND
THIS BIT OF A REBOUND PUTS HIM
NOT QUITE AS WELL AS HE WAS IN
OCTOBER, BUT STILL UP FROM WHERE
HE WAS LAST TIME.
THIS BIG OF A NET APPROVAL, PLUS
12, IS BETTER THAN WALKER HAD
DURING MOST OF HIS TERM, WHICH
SIMPLY REFLECTS HOW STRONG THE
BALANCE WAS IN GOVERNOR WALKER'S
CASE.
>> FOR