RESULTS OF THE LATEST MARQUETTE
UNIVERSITY LAW SCHOOL POLL.
HERE WITH THE RESULTS OF THE NEW
SURVEY IS THE DIRECTOR OF THE
POLL, CHARLES FRANKLIN.
THANKS FOR YOUR TIME AGAIN.
>> GOOD TO BE HERE.
>> SO WE'RE 14 MONTHS OUT FROM
NOVEMBER OF 2020 AND DONALD
TRUMP IS EITHER TRAILING OR TIED
WITH THE TOP FOUR DEMOCRATS IN
YOUR POLL.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
WE SEE JOE BIDEN WITH A
NINE-POINT LEAD, FOLLOWED BY
BERNIE SANDERS WITH A FOUR-POINT
LEAD.
BUT THEN ELIZABETH WARREN TIES
AT 45 AND HARRIS TIES AT 44.
WE ASKED ABOUT THOSE FOUR
CANDIDATES BECAUSE THEY'VE BEEN
IN THE TOP FOUR IN NATIONAL
POLLING AVERAGES.
WE'LL CHANGE THAT AS THE
CANDIDATES CHANGE.
>> WITH REGARDS TO THE NEITHER
CATEGORY, THAT'S CONSISTENT WITH
WHAT WE SAW IN 2016.
YOU'VE TOLD US IN THE PAST THOSE
PEOPLE DO ACTUALLY MAKE A
CHOICE.
>> I THINK THAT'S GENERALLY
RIGHT.
NOW, IN 2016 WE SAW AN UNUSUALLY
LARGE THIRD-PARTY VOTE HERE.
AND WE ALSO SAW NEARLY 100,000
FEWER VOTERS GOING TO THE POLLS
IN 2016 COMPARED TO 2012.
SO THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAYS THAT
YOU CAN CHOOSE TO VOTE FOR
WITHIN OF THE TWO PARTIES
ANYWAY, VOTE FOR A THIRD PARTY
OR STAY HOME.
WE SAW ALL OF THAT AT WORK IN
2016.
>> NOW, TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING
IS ALSO UPSIDE DOWN AND NOT
CHANGED SINCE APRIL.
SO IS WISCONSIN STILL THE
PROVERBIAL SWING STATE?
>> I THINK WE ARE THE SWING
STATE.
AND THE WAY TO THINK ABOUT THIS
IS OF THE LAST FIVE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS HERE, THREE OF THEM
HAVE BEEN DIVIDED BY LESS THAN
ONE PERCENTAGE POINT.
THE GOVERNOR'S RACE WAS DECIDED
BY JUST OVER ONE PERCENTAGE
POINT LAST YEAR.
SO THE IDEA THAT WE ARE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN A SWING STATE I THINK
IS JUST WRONG.
PRESIDENT TRUMP'S FAVORABILITY
RATINGS ARE A BIT BETTER HERE
NOW THAN THEY WERE IN '16,
THOUGH THEY ARE STILL UNDER
WATER, AS IS HIS JOB APPROVAL.
SO HE'S IN SOME WAYS IN BETTER
SHAPE NOW THAN HE WAS THERE, BUT
IN OTHER WAYS HE'S STILL FALLING
SHORT OF THAT 50% APPROVAL WHICH
HE'S NEVER HIT IN OUR POLLING.
>> AND YOU MENTIONED THE
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY.
WISCONSIN COMES IN APRIL, PRETTY
LATE IN THE PROCESS.
HOW MUCH SHOULD WE TAKE INTO
THOSE NUMBERS NOW?
HOW MUCH WILL CHANGE BY THEN?
>> ALL OF THESE NUMBERS SHOULD
BE THOUGHT OF AS WE'RE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE SECOND INNING OF
THE BALL GAME.
IT'S A LONG WAY TO THE BOTTOM OF
THE NINTH AND A FINAL SCORE.
BUT WE WANT TO WATCH HOW THE
GAME PROGRESSES, WHICH TEAMS
RALLY AND WHICH FALL OFF
THROUGHOUT THE COURSE.
SO I THINK THAT'S THE WAY TO
LOOK AT IT.
NOT AS THESE ARE PREDICTIONS.
IN THE DEM PRIMARY WE SAW BIDEN
IN FIRST PLACE AT 28 FOLLOWED BY
SANDERS AT 20 AND WARREN AT 17.
SO THAT'S IN LINE WITH WHAT
WE'RE SEEING IN NATIONAL
POLLING.
BUT AGAIN A LONG TIME TO GO.
AND THEY'VE BEEN BUSY PAYING
ATTENTION TO IOWA.
WE HAVEN'T SEEN AS MUCH OF THOSE
CANDIDATES YET.
>> MEANWHILE, THINKING ABOUT THE
ECONOMY, PEOPLE THINK IT'S DOING
OKAY NOW, BUT THEY'RE NOT
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE.
>> THEY'RE MORE PESSIMISTIC
ABOUT THE FUTURE THAN WE'VE SEEN
SINCE JANUARY 2012.
A NET NEGATIVE 11 SAY THE
ECONOMY WILL GET WORSE OVER THE
NEXT YEAR RATHER THAN BETTER.
AND THE AVERAGE FOR 2019 ACROSS
THREE POLLS IS NEGATIVE THREE.
AT NO POINT IN THE TIME THAT
WE'VE BEEN DOING THE POLL HAS
ANY INDIVIDUAL POLL BEEN NET
NEGATIVE AND CERTAINLY NOT THE
AVERAGE FOR A YEAR.
NOW, THAT'S THREE POLLS TAKEN
SINCE JANUARY HERE AND OPINIONS
OF THE ECONOMY CAN FLUK IT WA.
--
FLUCTUATE.
WE HAD AN OKAY JOBS REPORT
TODAY, FOR EXAMPLE.
BUT I THINK IT IS CERTAINLY A
WARNING SIGN THAT THE PUBLIC
THAT HAS BEEN VERY POSITIVE
ABOUT THE ECONOMY SINCE 2017, AT
LEAST, IS NOW BEGINNING TO SEE
SOME CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON.
>> AND IN REGARDS TO POLLING AND
HOW PEOPLE FEEL ABOUT THIS,
CONSUMER OPTIMISM DOES MATTER
WHEN IT COMES TO HOW IT PLAYS
OUT IN THE ECONOMY, WHETHER
PEOPLE SPEND MONEY.
>> IT ABSOLUTELY DOES BECAUSE
YOU NEED TO BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
WHAT'S COMING BEFORE YOU GO GET
THAT NEW CAR OR REFRIGERATOR OR
BUY A NEW HOUSE.
YOU KNOW, THE GOOD NEWS IS OUR
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS STILL
EXCEPTIONALLY LOW.
BUT THIS NOTION THAT PEOPLE ARE
FEELING UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE
FUTURE IS SOMETHING TO WORRY
ABOUT.
IT MEANS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP
DOES NOT HAVE AS HIGH AN
APPROVAL ON THE ECONOMY HERE.
IT'S 49 TO 50.
AS HE HAS SEEN IN SOME NATIONAL
POLLING EARLIER IN THE YEAR,
WHEN HE WAS GETTING 53 TO 55%.
>> I DO WANT TO TOUCH GUN
CONTROL AND UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND
CHECKS.
IN YOUR NOTES ON THE POLL, YOU
MENTION WHICH MASS SHOOTINGS
CAME BEFORE THE POLL AND WHICH
ONES CAME OVER.
BUT IT DOESN'T SEEM TO MATTER
ANYMORE.
ONE THEY'RE COMING SO OFTEN BUT,
TWO, IT HASN'T CHANGED.
>> IT HASN'T.
I THINK THAT REFLECTS HOW MANY
MASS SHOOTINGS THERE HAVE BEEN.
WE SAW A LITTLE RISE IN SUPPORT
FOR BACKGROUND CHECKS FROM THE
'70s TO THE '80s OVER THE
LAST FEW YEARS, BUT FOR THE LAST
TWO OR THREE YEARS IT'S BEEN
AROUND 80%.
IT'S 80% THIS TIME.
THAT INCLUDES OVER 75% OF GUN
HOUSEHOLDS AND OVER 80% OF
NON-GUN HOUSEHOLDS.
81% SUPPORT RED FLAG LAWS, AGAIN
IN BOTH GUN AND NON-GUN
HOUSEHOLDS.
IT'S BANNING ASSAULT WEAPONS
THAT MORE DIVISIVE.
56 OR 57% STILL SUPPORT THAT.
BUT NOW GUN HOUSEHOLDS ARE
EVENLY DIVIDED SO THERE'S MORE
DIVISION ON THAT ISSUE.
>> ALL