>> I'M FREDERICA FREYBERG.
TONIGHT ON "HERE AND NOW," IN
THE AFTERMATH OF MASS SHOOTINGS
IN EL PASO AND DAYTON, WISCONSIN
ATTORNEY GENERAL JOSH KAUL IS
MERE.
HERE.
NEW RESEARCH SHOWS WHAT TWITTER
REVEALS ABOUT MASS SHOOTINGS.
A NEW STUDY REQUESTED BY THE
STATE ON THE VIABILITY OF THE
FOXCONN DEAL.
IT'S "HERE AND NOW" FOR
AUGUST 9.
>> FUNDING FOR "HERE AND NOW" IS
PROVIDED, IN PART, BY FRIENDS OF
WISCONSIN PUBLIC TELEVISION.
>> IN THE WAKE OF MASS SHOOTINGS
IN TEXAS AND OHIO, WISCONSIN
LEADERS ARE EXPECTED TO MEET TO
TALK ABOUT WHAT CAN BE DONE.
IN TONIGHT'S FIRST LOOK,
GOVERNOR TONY EVERS IS PUSHING
FOR UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS
AND WHAT'S KNOWN AS A RED FLAG
LAW.
THESE ARE MEASURES SPEAKER ROBIN
VOS AND SENATE MAJORITY LEADER
SCOTT FITZGERALD HAVE OPPOSED.
BUT THE GOVERNOR AND LEGISLATIVE
LEADERS HAVE AGREED TO TALK NEXT
WEEK.
WISCONSIN ATTORNEY GENERAL JOSH
KAUL SUPPORTS BOTH MEASURES.
HE JOINS US NOW.
THANKS FOR BEING HERE.
YOU HAVE SAID WHENEVER MASS
SHOOTINGS HAPPEN THERE ARE CALLS
FOR ACTION.
WHAT WILL BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME
IN TERMS OF PUTTING IN PLACE
THESE GUN CONTROL MEASURES?
>> I THINK WE'VE REALLY SEEN A
SHIFT WHEN IT COMES TO THE
RESPONSE FROM STATES AND FROM
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AFTER
SOME OF THESE SHOOTINGS.
WE SAW THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TRAGEDY AT PARKLAND.
AND I THINK WE ARE AGAIN SEEING
REAL ACTION AND REAL MOVEMENT.
PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS COME OUT IN
SUPPORT OF A RED FLAG LAW AND IS
TALKING ABOUT BACKGROUND CHECKS.
THE GOVERNOR OF OHIO HAS
SUPPORTED MEASURES LIKE THAT.
I'M HOPING WE CAN SEE PROGRESS
HERE IN WISCONSIN NOW BECAUSE WE
HAVE HAD JUST FAR TOO MANY OF
THESE TRAGEDIES AND I THINK WE
NEED TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO
MAKE CHANGE THAT'S GOING TO HELP
KEEP PEOPLE IN WISCONSIN SAFER.
I DON'T WANT TO BE HAVING THIS
CONVERSATION AGAIN AFTER ANOTHER
TRAGEDY HERE IN WISCONSIN.
>> UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS
ARE WHAT MOST PEOPLE MOST OFTEN
TALK ABOUT IN THE WAKE OF THESE
KINDS OF MASS SHOOTINGS.
WHAT IN YOUR MIND SHOULD SUCH
CONVERSATION ENTAIL?
>> I THINK EVERYBODY PCH PURCHASING
A FIREARM SHOULD GO THROUGH A
BACKGROUND CHECK PROCESS TO MAKE
SURE THAT THE PERSON WHO IS
TRYING TO BUY THE FIREARM ISN'T
PROHIBITED FROM DOING SO.
SOME FIREARM PURCHASES TAKE
PLACE WITHOUT THAT KIND OF
CHECK.
I THINK IF SOMEBODY HAS
COMMITTED A A FELONY, THERE SHOULD
BE NO LOOPHOLE SO THEY ARE
PREVENTED FROM BUYING A GUN.
>> ANOTHER MEASURE BEING
DISCUSSED AS WE'VE DISCUSSED IS
THIS RED FLAG LAW.
NOW, WHAT WOULD THAT LOOK LIKE?
>> SO THERE ARE I BELIEVE 17
STATES RIGHT NOW THAT HAVE
SO-CALLED RED FLAG LAWS AND THE
BASIC CONCEPT IS IF SOMEBODY HAS
BEEN SHOWN TO A JUDGE TO BE A
DANGER TO THEMSELVES OR TO
OTHERS AND THERE'S A LIMIT IN
WHO CAN MAKE THAT SHOWING.
IT'S USUALLY LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
A FAMILY MEMBER.
THE JUDGE WOULD HAVE THE ABILITY
TO ISSUE AN ORDER THAT
TEMPORARILY REMOVES FIREARMS
FROM THAT PERSON.
IF YOU HAVE SOMEBODY WHO IS
GOING THROUGH A MENTAL HEALTH
CRISIS OR SOMEBODY WHO HAS
THREATENED TO COMMIT ONE OF
THESE HORRIBLE MASS SHOOTINGS,
THIS GIVES A TOOL TO LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE PEOPLE WHO
KNOW THAT PERSON BEST, THEIR
FAMILY MEMBERS, TO TRY AND GET
AN ORDER TO PREVENT A TRAGEDY
FROM HAPPENING.
AND A LOT OF THESE LAWS WERE
ADOPTED FAIRLY RECENTLY.
BUT CONNECTICUT'S LAW HAS BEEN
IN PLACE FOR ABOUT 20 YEARS.
THE STUDIES OF THAT LAW INDICATE
THAT IT HAS REDUCED THE SUICIDE
RATE THERE.
SO I THINK THAT THIS LAW WOULD
MAKE OUR COMMUNITY SAFER AND I
THINK IT'S ONE WE SHOULD MOVE
FORWARD WITH.
>> HERE'S WHAT SPEAKER ROBIN VOS
TWEETED ABOUT RED FLAG LAWS.
I WILL NOT ENTERTAIN PROPOSALS
TO TAKE AWAY SECOND AMENDMENT
RIGHTS.
HOPEFULLY WE CAN FIND COMMON
GROUND ON THE REAL PROBLEM BY
ADDRESSING THE MENTAL HEALTH
ISSUES FACING WISCONSIN.
THERE'S A LOT OF CONTROVERSY
AROUND THIS IDEA THAT PEOPLE
THINK THIS WOULD JUST MEAN THAT
PEOPLE WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
EXERCISE THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL
RIGHTS TO HAVE GUNS.
>> THAT'S JUST WRONG.
THERE'S BROAD PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR
RED FLAG LAWS AND UNIVERSAL
BACKGROUND CHECKS BECAUSE
THEY'RE COMMON SENSE.
THEY'RE ABOUT PREVENTING PEOPLE
WHO ARE A DANGER TO THEMSELVES
OR OTHERS FROM HAVING ACCESS TO
A FIREARM THAT CAN BE USED FOR
GUN VIOLENCE.
AND THESE LAWS ARE IN PLACE AS I
SAID IN 17 STATES.
THERE'S NOT A SINGLE STATE WHERE
THESE LAWS HAVE FOUND TO BE A
VIOLATION OF DUE PROCESS OR
SECOND AMENDMENT RIGHTS.
I DON'T THINK THE SPEAKER WOULD
SUGGEST THAT DONALD TRUMP IS
TRYING TO VIOLATE PEOPLE'S
SECOND AMENDMENT RIGHTS.
NOW, WHEN IT COMES TO MENTAL
HEALTH, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS I
WOULD SAY.
FIRST, THERE ARE MILLIONS OF
PEOPLE WHO FACE MENTAL HEALTH
ISSUES AND I THINK IT'S REALLY
IMPORTANT THAT WE NOT STIGMATIZE
THOSE PEOPLE.
THEY'RE NO MORE LIKELY TO BE A
DANGER THAN ANYBODY ELSE.
BUT IF YOU DO HAVE SOMEBODY WHO
IS GOING THROUGH A CRISIS,
THAT'S WHY WE NEED THIS METHOD
FOR INTERVENING.
WE CAN EXPAND MEDICAID IN
WISCONSIN SO MORE PEOPLE HAVE
ACCESS TO MENTAL HEALTH
TREATMENT.
>> YOU HAVE SAID THAT YOU
BELIEVE THAT RED FLAG LAW WOULD
HAVE TO BE CAREFULLY TARGETED.
HOW SO?
>> WELL, I THINK YOU WANT TO
MAKE IT FIRST OF ALL SO THAT A
LIMITED GROUP OF PEOPLE CAN
REPORT TO GET THAT SORT OF ORDER
IN PLACE, WHICH IS WHY I THINK
YOU LIMIT IT TO FAMILY MEMBERS
OR LAW ENFORCEMENT WHO CAN SEE
THOSE SIGNS OF CONCERN, THOSE
RED FLAGS.
AND THEN SECONDLY YOU WANT IT TO
BE A TEMPORARY ORDER SO THAT THE
PERSON WHO'S NOT ABLE TO HAVE A
FIREARM IS ABLE TO CHALLENGE IT.
THAT'S WHERE THOSE DUE PROCESS
PROTECTIONS ARE AND THAT'S WHY
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SECOND
AMENDMENT RIGHTS.
>> THANKS VERY MUCH.
>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
>> A CLOSER LOOK NOW AT THE GUN
DEBATE AND FOR THAT WE GO TO
MILWAUKEE.
THAT'S WHERE WISCONSIN CARRY IS
BASED, A NONPROFIT THAT EDUCATES
AND LOBBIES FOR SECOND AMENDMENT
RIGHTS.
NIK CLARK IS PRESIDENT
WISCONSIN CARRY.
THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.
>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
>> SO WHAT IS YOUR REACTION TO
RADIORENEWED CALLS FOR UNIVERSAL
BACKGROUND CHECKS?
>> UNFORTUNATELY EVERY TIME
THERE'S A SITUATION IN THE NEWS
WITH THE MASS SHOOTINGS, THESE
PROPOSALS KEEP GETTING
REGURGITATED.
SO I THINK IT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO
PEOPLE THAT IT'S POA POLITICALLY
MOTIVATED.
THE GENTLEMAN IN EL PASO PASSED
A BACKGROUND CHECK.
THIS WOULDN'T HAVE EVEN
ADDRESSED THE SITUATION THAT'S
PROMPTING THE COVERAGE IN THE
NEWS.
PEOPLE SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT
THIS IS MORE ABOUT A POLITICAL
POSTURING THAN IT IS ABOUT
SOLVING A PROBLEM.
>> I WANT TO GET TO THAT IN A
MINUTE, BUT WHY IN YOUR MIND
WOULD A UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND
CHECK BE ONEROUS?
>> SO THERE'S A COUPLE THINGS.
UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECK SOUND
GREAT AND OF COURSE MOST PEOPLE
WHEN THEY PURCHASE THEIR FIRE
REMEMBER A, THEY GO TO A RETAIL
STORE, THEY'RE PASSING A
BACKGROUND CHECK.
IF YOU GO TO A GUN SHOW AND
SOMEONE IS SELLING GUNS FOR A
LIVING, YOU HAVE TO PASS A
BACKGROUND CHECK.
THERE'S A PRIVATE PARTY
EXCEPTION.
IF I WANT TO BUY FROM A
GRANDFATHER, BROTHER OR FRIEND,
WE DON'T HAVE TO TRANSACT THAT.
THEY WOULD HAVE TO HAVE A
UNIVERSAL GUN REGISTRY.
HOW ELSE WOULD YOU KNOW THAT
EVERY PERSON PASSED A BACKGROUND
CHECK IN ORDER TO PURCHASE THAT
GUN?
SO THAT'S WHY A UNIVERSAL
BACKGROUND CHECK WOULD DO TWO
THINGS.
IT WOULD NECESSITATE A COST
BECAUSE NO ONE'S GOING TO RUN
THAT CHECK FOR FREE.
SO EVEN AMONGST FRIENDS, YOU'D
HAVE TO THEN INCUR A COST.
AND THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE
UNIVERSAL GUN REGISTRY WHICH A
LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE A GREAT ISSUE
WITH.
>> WHY?
>> BECAUSE QUITE FRANKLY THERE'S
A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT DON'T TRUST
THE GOVERNMENT.
EVEN WISCONSIN'S FORMER ATTORNEY
GENERAL SAID HIMSELF THAT HE WAS
PART OF GOVERNMENT.
HE DIDN'T EVEN WANT THE
GOVERNMENT TO KNOW WHICH GUNS
HE'S HAD.
IN CALIFORNIA THEY PASSED A LAW
REQUIRING CERTAIN GUNS TO BE
REGISTERED.
A FEW YEARS LATER THEYS PASSED A
LAW TO OUT LAW THOSE GUNS AND
THEN THEY HAD A LIST OF PEOPLE
THAT HAD THOSE GUNS.
THE CLICHE IS THAT REGISTRATION
LEADS TO CONFISCATION AND THAT
WAS TRUE IN CALIFORNIA AND WE
WORRY ABOUT THAT IN OTHER
PLACES.
SO WHY SHOULD WE BURDEN MILLIONS
OF LAW-ABIDING CITIZENS FOR
SOMETHING A FEW LOON PARTICULARS -- LUNATICS
ARE DOING IN THESE MASS
SHOOTINGS.
IF THE GUN IN PARKLAND OR
EL PASO HAD BEEN REGISTERED, IT
WOULD STILL SHOOT PEOPLE.
>> NOW PRESIDENT TRUMP IS SAYING
HE WANTS INTELLIGENT BACKGROUND
CHECKS AND HE HAS SPOKEN WITH
SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH
MCCONNELL WHO SAYS HE'S TOTALLY
ONBOARD.
WHAT'S YOUR REACTION TO THAT?
>> I'M SCARED BY INTELLIGENT
BACKGROUND CHECKS.
I'VE HEARD HIM TALK ABOUT
WANTING SOCIAL MEDIA TO BE
INVOLVED.
IF THE THOUGHT IS WE'RE GOING TO
GO THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA AND TRY
TO CREATE AN ALGORITHM AND TRY
TO IDENTIFY PEOPLE WHO ARE HIGH
PRIORITIES FOR BEING A MASS
SHOOTER THAT'S SOME PRETTY
ORWELLIAN STUFF.
THAT MAKES PEOPLE'S SKIN CRAWL
THINKING THAT THEY'D HAVE TO
WORRY THAT SOMETHING THEY PUT ON
FACEBOOK, AGAIN, THAT FOR THEM
IS INNOCUOUS WOULD SOMEHOW FLAG
THEM TO BE A POTENTIAL MASS
SHOOTER.
THAT SOUNDS LIKE THE THOUGHT
POLICE TO ME.
I KNOW HOW BACKGROUND CHECKS
WORK RIGHT NOW AND I CAN'T THINK
OF HOW THEY WANT TO HAVE MORE
INTELLIGENT BACKGROUND CHECKS
UNLESS THEY'RE GOING TO TRY TO
DO SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
PRESIDENT TRUMP THINKS THAT
SOCIAL MEDIA CAN BE PART OF THIS
FLAGGING OF POTENTIAL MASS
SHOOTERS.
THAT WOULD BE IN INFRINGING ON
CIVIL LIBERTIES.
>> WHAT'S YOUR OPINION OF RED
FLAG LAWS?
>> RED FLAG LAWS WOULD BE AN
EXACT REVERSAL OF CONSTITUTIONAL
PRINCIPLES IN THIS COUNTRY.
WE'VE GOT INNOCENT UNTIL PROVEN
GUILTY, THE RIGHT TO PRIVATE
PROPERTY AND THOSE CAN'T BE
TAKEN FROM YOU WITHOUT DUE
PROCESS.
NOW, THE RED FLAG LAWS FLIP
THOSE AROUND AND BASICALLY SAY
WE CAN COME TAKE YOUR PROPERTY
FIRST AND THEN YOU CAN GO GET A
COURT HEARING DOWN THE ROAD,
SOME SAY TWO WEEKS AND WE DON'T
HAVE A SPECIFIC PROPOSAL HERE IN
WISCONSIN AND IT VARIES BY
STATE.
BUT THAT'S TROUBLING AS WELL.
I THINK THAT ALL OF THE -- ALL
OF THE INCIDENTS THAT WE'VE HAD
SO FAR, THESE INDIVIDUALS
COMMITTED CRIMES.
THEY COULD HAVE BEEN IN JAIL,
BUT PEOPLE WERE LENIENT ON THEM.
HERE IN MILWAUKEE WE'VE GOT A
MASSIVE CRIME PROBLEM AND
VIRTUALLY ALL THE PEOPLE
COMMITTING CRIMES ALREADY HAVE A
CRIMINAL BACKGROUND AND ARE
ALLOWED TO OWN FIREARMS.
WHEN WE SEE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CRIMES BEING COMMITTED BY PEOPLE
WHO AREN'T ALLOWED TO OWN GUNS,
WHY ARE WE FOCUSING ON ANOTHER
SEGMENT OF SOCIETY.
DO WE WANT TO BE ABLE TO SAY TO
SOMEONE, LOOK, I'M WORRIED ABOUT
TALKING TO MY COUNSELOR OR
PSYCHOLOGIST BECAUSE SOMEONE IS
GOING TO RED FLAG ME?
DO WE WANT TO GIVE LOCAL POLICE POLICE
DEPARTMENTS ALL ACROSS THE STATE
THE RIGHT, THE GOVERNMENT THE
RIGHT TO JUST COME AND TAKE YOUR
GUNS?
THAT'S A REVERSAL OF CIVIL
LIBERTIES.
I THINK IF PRESIDENT TRUMP
PUSHES SOMETHING NATIONALLY, HE
GOT AWAY WITH THE BUMP STOCK
BAN.
I DON'T THINK PEOPLE WILL TURN
THE OTHER CHEEK IF THEY HAVE
SOMETHING LIKE A RED FLAG LAW
THAT STARTS TO INFRINGE.
WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN THERE IS
SOMEONE'S GETTING DIVORCED,
THEIR SPOUSE IS GOING TO RED
FLAG THE OTHER ONE.
THAT'S HOW THESE THINGS ALWAYS
WORK OUT.
>> WE NEED TO LEAVE IT THERE,
BUT THANKS VERY MUCH FOR THE
DISCUSSION.
>> IT'S GOOD TO BE WITH YOU.
THANK YOU.
>> RESPONSE AND REACTION TO YET
MORE MASS SHOOTINGS IS THE
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH OUT OF THE
UW-MADISON.
IN TONIGHT'S INSIDE LOOK, HOW
RESEARCHERS LOOKED AT SOCIAL
MEDIA AND SPECIFICALLY TWITTER
BECAUSE OF HOW IT PROVIDES AN
IMPORTANT WINDOW INTO THE NATURE
OF PUBLIC MOURNING AND POLICY
DEBATES IN THE WAKE OF THESE
TRAGEDIES.
RESULTS APPEAR IN THE JOURNAL OF
COMPUTER-MEDIATED COMMUNICATION
AND MAY ADD TO OUR UNDERSTANDING
WHY THERE IS THERE IS SO LITTLE
LEGISLATIVE SUCCESS.
YINI ZHANG IS HERE.
>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.
>> YOU ANALYZED ABOUT ONE
MILLION TWEETS ABOUT MASS
SHOOTINGS OVER TWO YEARS AND YOU
BROKE THESE TWEETS INTO THREE
THEME GROUPS, THOSE BEING
THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS, GUN
CONTROL AND DEFENSE OF GUN
RIGHTS.
HOW DID THE THREE THEMES STACK
UP IN TERMS OF NUMBER OF TWEETS
IN EACH CATEGORY RIGHT AFTER
MASS SHOOTINGS?
>> SO DEPENDING ON THE METHOD WE
USED TO ANALYZE THOSE TWEETS, I
WOULD SAY SO THE MOST TWEETS WE
SAW WAS THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS,
BECAUSE AS YOU MIGHT SEE RIGHT
AFTER EACH SHOOTING, THERE WERE
LIKE AN OUT POURING, THERE WAS
AN OUTPOURING OF EXPRESSION OF
SYMPATHIES IN THE FORM OF
THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS.
I WOULD SAY THAT'S KIND OF LIKE
AS INTENSE AS THEY WERE
FLEETING.
BECAUSE THEY JUST PEAKED RIGHT
AFTER THE MASS SHOOTINGS.
BUT THIS APPEARED WITHIN ONE
DAY.
AND THEN I WOULD SAY THE NEXT
WOULD BE THE GUN CONTROL AND THE
GUN RIGHTS.
BUT DEPENDING ON THE METHOD WE
USED, SO IT VARIES.
>> SO I WANT TO GET DEEPER INTO
THAT ISSUE OF THE KIND OF THE
LONGEVITY IN THE TWITTERSPHERE
AND SYSTEM OF THESE DIFFERENT
KINDS OF THESE.
YOU'RE SAYING THAT THE THOUGHTS
AND PRAYERS WAS KIND OF
FLEETING.
>> YES.
>> LIKE ONE OR TWO DAYS?
>> YES.
SO THEY JUST SPIKED IMMEDIATELY
AFTER THE SHOOTING, AFTER A
PARTICULAR SHOOTING, AND THEN IT
STAYED IN THE SYSTEM, STAYED IN
THE TWITTER SYSTEM FOR JUST ONE
DAY.
AND THEN KIND OF LIKE
DISAPPEARED.
>> AND THEN HOW DOES THAT
COMPARE TO THE GUN CONTROL
TWEETS?
>> THEY LASTED FOR ABOUT 35
DAYS.
SO MUCH LONGER PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THIS GUN CONTROL
DYNAMIC IS ECLIPSED BY THE GUN
RIGHTS DYNAMIC, WHICH LASTED FOR
ABOUT 40 DAYS.
>> AND YOU'RE ALSO SAYING IN
YOUR REPORT THAT NOT ONLY DID
THE DEFENSE OF GUN RIGHTS HAVE
LASTING POWER IN THE TWITTER
SYSTEM, BUT THAT IT WOULD KIND
OF CYCLE BACK AS WELL, WHERE THE
OTHER THEMES DIDN'T, WHERE IF
THERE WAS AN ANNIVERSARY OR SOME
KIND OF ACTION OR SOME KIND OF
OTHER NEWS SPIKE AROUND THE
PARTICULAR MASS SHOOTING?
>> YEAH.
THE GUN CONTROL TWEETS, WE
OBSERVED A CYCLICLE CYCLICAL PATTERN
PROBABLY DUE TO THE ANNIVERSARY
EFFECT OR WEEKLY PATTERN OF
TWEETS.
WE OBSERVED MORE TWEETS DURING
THE WEEKDAYS AND LESS DURING THE
WEEKENDS.
>> HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE
DIFFERENCE IN KIND OF THE WHAT
I'M CALLING THE LONGEVITY OF
THESE THEMES IN THE TWITTER
SYSTEM?
YOU KNOW, HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN WHY
THE THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS IS SO
FLEETING COMPARED TO THE DEFENSE
OF GUN RIGHTS.
>> MASS SHOOTINGS ARE TRAGEDIES.
SO THE PUBLIC TENDS TO FORGET
THEM QUICKLY.
PUBLIC ATTENTION TEND TO HAVE
REALLY SHORT RESPONSIBLES.
SO IT'S UNSURPRISING THAT THOSE
EVENTS CAN BE FORGOTTEN VERY
SOON BECAUSE OTHER EVENTS WILL
COME UP AND PEOPLE WILL SHIFT
THEIR ATTENTION TO THOSE EVENTS.
>> NOW, THE RESEARCHERS IN THIS
REPORT SAY THE SIGNAL ABOUT THIS
SENT TO JOURNALISTS AND
POLITICIANS IS THAT THE PASSION
OF GUN CITES SUPPORTERS MERITS
MORE ATTENTION.
IS THIS WHY THERE IS SO LITTLE
SUCCESS WITH GUN CONTROL
POLICIES?
>> YES.
THIS IS WHAT WE THINK KIND OF
LIKE SOCIAL MEDIA EXPLANATION
FOR THE LEGISLATIVE STALEMATE
FOR GUN CONTROL.
AS YOU CAN SEE, THE GUN RIGHTS
ADVOCATES HAVE BEEN REALLY
ACTIVE ON TWITTER.
THEY KEPT THEIR VOICE LOUD AND
STRONG.
AND THEN THAT IMPRESSION LEAD TO
THAT THEY'RE RESISTANT TO
CHANGE, SO MIGHT SEND A SIGNAL
TO POLITICIANS TO WE'RE PAYING
ATTENTION TO ANY LEGISLATIVE
ACTIONS.
SO HERE WE ARE AND YOU SHOULD
PAY ATTENTION TO OUR CONCERNS
AND LISTEN TO OUR VOICES.
THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM THE GUN
CONTROL SIDE, WHICH IS LESS
ORGANIZED AND LESS -- LASTS
SHORTER.
>> ALL RIGHT.
YINI ZHANG, THANKS VERY MUCH FOR
JOINING US.
I KNOW THERE'S MORE WORK AROUND
THIS RESEARCH PROJECT GOING
FORWARD, BUT THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
>> THANK YOU FOR INVITING ME.
>> IN TONIGHT'S LOOK AHEAD, A
NEW ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE
COSTS AND BENEFITS OF THE
FOXCONN DEAL IN WISCONSIN SHOWS
THE INCENTIVE PACKAGE WAS SO
OUTSIZED EVEN IF THE CONTRACT IS
RENEGOTIATED, WISCONSIN WILL
STILL BE ON THE LOSING END,
POTENTIALLY TO THE TUNE OF
COSTING THE STATE $290,000 PER
JOB CREATED.
THE STATE DEPARTMENT OF
ADMINISTRATION REQUESTED THE
STUDY BECAUSE THE SIZE AND SCOPE
OF THE FACILITY HAS CHANGED
SINCE FOXCONN PROMISED A $10
BILLION INVESTMENT AND 13,000
JOBS FROM FLAT PANEL SCREEN
PRODUCTION IN RACINE COUNTY.
THE COMPANY STANDS BY ITS
ORIGINAL PROMISE FOR JOBS, BUT
GOVERNOR EVERS HAS SAYS THE
PLANT WOULD EMPLOY ONLY 1500
PEOPLE BY NEXT YEAR.
WE CHECK IN SENIOR ECONOMIST
WITH W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE FOR
RESEARCH TIMOTHY BARTIK.
THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.
>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
>> HOW IS IT IF THE FOXCONN DEAL
IS RENEGOTIATED IT ACTUALLY GETS
WORSE FOR WISCONSIN TAXPAYERS,
THAT $290,000 PER JOB CREATED?
>> WELL, IF YOU HAVE A NEW
CONTRACT BUT YOU USE THE SAME
CREDIT RATES, THE COST PER JOB
ACTUALLY CAN GO UP BECAUSE THE
DISCUSSION NOW IS THAT THE NEW
PROJECT WITH FEWER JOBS WILL BE
MORE CAPITAL INTENSETIVE, HAVE A
HIGHER RATIO OF ROBOTS TO
WORKERS.
THE INVESTMENT TAX CREDITS WOULD
END UP ACTUALLY BEING A HIGHER
CREDIT RATE PER WORKER.
ORIGINALLY IT WAS OVER $170,000
PER JOB.
NOW WE'RE TALKING ABOUT
SOMETHING THAT MIGHT BE AS MUCH
AS $290,000 PER JOB.
>> SO WHAT KIND OF RENEGOTIATION
WOULD HELP LEVEL THE COST
BENEFIT RATIO HERE?
>> WELL, I THINK THE STATE
SHOULD EXPLORE AT LOARG LOWERING THE
COST PER JOB TO SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN $20,000 AND $30,000 PER
JOB.
EVEN THE MA'AM AMAZON NEW YORK DEAL
WAS ONLY ABOUT $40,000 PER JOB.
WHEN THE JOB WAS ANNOUNCED,
PEOPLE WERE KIND OF FREAKED OUT
BY THE WHOLE THING BECAUSE IT'S
SO FAR OUTSIDE WHAT WE USUALLY
SEE IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.
IT'S AT LEAST SIX TO SEVEN TIMES
TYPICAL INCENTIVE.
IT'S EVEN MUCH GREATER THAN THE
INCENTIVES OFFERED TO AMAZON BY
NEW YORK.
>> ACCORDING TO YOUR ANALYSIS,
UNDER BEST-CASE SCENARIOS FOR A
RENEGOTIATED DEAL, HOW MUCH
COULD WISCONSIN SAVE?
>> OH, WELL, YOU COULD SAVE AN
AWFUL LOT.
YOU COULD GO -- AS I SAID, YOU
COULD GO FROM MAYBE $290,000 PER
JOB TO DOWN TO $25,000 PER JOB
AND THEN THE DEAL MIGHT ACTUALLY
PAY OFF FOR WISCONSIN RESIDENTS.
THE PROBLEM IN PAYING SO MUCH
PER JOB, IT'S NOT THAT NEW JOBS
AREN'T WORTH SOMETHING.
THEY ARE WORTH SOMETHING.
THEY BRING US TAX REVENUE.
BUT THERE ARE ECONOMIC COSTS TO
THESE THINGS.
THEY COME OUT OF THE STATE
BUDGET SOMEWHERE.
AND WHETHER OR NOT YOU RAISE
TAXES ON HOUSEHOLDS OR OTHER
WISCONSIN BUSINESSES OR CUT
SPENDING, CUT PUBLIC SCHOOL
SPENDING, CUT UNIVERSITY
SPENDING, THERE'S AN ECONOMIC
COST TO THAT.
THERE'S NOT A FREE LUNCH.
>> IMPLICATIONS ALL AROUND
EITHER WAY.
>> RIGHT.
I MEAN, BASICALLY, YOU KNOW,
CREATING JOBS IS VALUABLE.
AND STATES ARE ACTIVELY ENGAGED
IN THIS.
WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT WHAT ARE
THE BEST WAYS TO CREATE JOBS.
DO WE NEED TO OFFER TAX
INCENTIVES?
DO WE NEED TO OFFER BUSINESSES
VARIOUS TYPES OF SERVICES?
CUSTOMIZED JOB TRAINING, SMALL
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CENTERS,
SMALL BUSINESS INCUBATORS.
ALL THESE THINGS COST MONEY,
SOME MORE EFFECTIVE THAN OTHERS.
IF YOU END UP SPENDING $290,000
PER JOB, IT'S VERY HARD TO HAVE
THAT PAY OFF BECAUSE THOSE ARE
BENEFITS.
YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR THE
INCENTIVES AND THAT ENDS UP
COSTING YOU MORE THAN THE JOBS
ARE WORTH.
>> SO WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE TO
THE OUTGOING CEO OF THE
WISCONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
CORPORATION WHO DISPUTES YOUR
NUMBERS AND SAYS YOU MAKE
ASSUMPTIONS THAT COULD NOT OCCUR
UNDER THE CONTRACT, NAMELY, THAT
THE COMPANY WOULDN'T BE ELIGIBLE
FOR JOBS PAYMENTS WITH THE
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES AND IT WOULD
DEFAULT ON THE CONTRACT IF IT
DOESN'T HAVE 5,850 JOBS BY THE
END OF 2023?
>> I THINK IT'S A WEIRD DEFENSE
TO SAY BEST-CASE SCENARIO IS THE
COMPANY DEFAULTS AND WE CALL
BACK ALL THE INCENTIVES AND
ASSUME FOXCONN STILL KEEPS ALL
THE JOBS THERE.
THAT'S KIND OF A WEIRD BEST-CASE
SCENARIO, THAT SOMEHOW 1500 JOBS
ARE CREATED, WE PAY OUT A HUGE
AMOUNT UPFRONT, WE ESSENTIALLY
PROVIDE FOXCONN WITH A
NO-INTEREST LOAN FOR A NUMBER OF
YEARS.
THEN WE GO TO COURT AND TRY TO
CLAW THAT BACK.
IS THAT GOING TO OCCUR LEGALLY
OR POLITICALLY?
WOULD THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR?
THAT'S THE BEST-CASE SCENARIO.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IF FOR SOME
REASON ALL THE JOBS WENT AWAY,
WE COULD STILL DO THAT.
WE'D HAVE A COST OF MAKING THIS
NO-INTEREST LOAN AND HAVE NO
JOBS IN THE END.
CLAIMING THAT DEFENDING A DEAL
BY SAYING THAT DEFAULT IS THE
BEST OPTION FOR RESIDENTS OF
WISCONSIN IS A SOMEWHAT STRANGE
DEFENSE OF THE DEAL.
>> FOR ITS PART, FOXCONN SAYS
THAT YOU MISREAD THE IMPORTANT
MULTIPLIER EFFECT OF ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS LIKE
THEIRS?
DID YOU MISREAD THE MULTIPLIER
EFFECT?
>> I USED THE MULTIPLIERS THAT
WERE USED BY THE VARIOUS
CONSULTING FIRMS THAT ADVISED
BOTH FOXCONN AND THE STATE.
PEOPLE ALWAYS LIKE TO CLAIM
MAGIC MULTIPLIERS.
IF YOU ASSUME A LARGE ENOUGH
MULTIPLIER, ANY INCENTIVE
PACKAGE CAN PAY OFF.
FOR EVERY JOB, THERE'S GOING TO
BE FIVE, SIX, TEN OTHER JOBS.
BUT USUALLY WHEN PEOPLE LOOK
HARD AT MULTIPLIERS, IT'S PRETTY
HARD TO GET THEM MUCH GREATER
THAN TWO OR THREE.
YOU KNOW, I ASSUMED A MULTIPLIER
BETWEEN TWO AND THREE, WHICH WAS
THE MULTIPLIER ASSUMED BY THE
CONSULTING FIRMS THAT BOTH THE
STATE AND FOXCONN RELIED ON.
>> ALL RIGHT.
WE LEAVE IT THERE.
THANKS FOR TALKING WITH US ABOUT
YOUR ANALYSIS.
>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME
AGAIN.
>> COMING IN THE NEXT WEEK, WE
CAN KICKING OFF SOME
COLLABORATIVE REPORTING WITH OUR
COLLEAGUES AT WISCONTEXT ON THE
TOPIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND
FLOODING.
IN RECENT YEARS, TORE REN CHEL
RAINS AND RAINS AND FLOODS HAVE
CAUSED MILLIONS OF DAMAGES IN
DAMAGE.
500-YEAR FLOOD EVENTS ARE
BECOMING MORE COMMON.
ZAC SCHULTZ TRAVELING TO SAWYER
COUNTY.
WE'LL HEAR WHY HIGH WATER AND
HEIN NORPERMANENTFLOODING ARE PERMANENT FIXTURES
IN SAWYER COUNTY.
>> SANDY FEELS LIKE MOST OF THE
WATER IN SAWYER COUNTY COMES
THROUGH HER BASEMENT?
>> THIS WHOLE AREA FLOODS AND IT
COMES IN EVERYWHERE.
>> AFTER HEAVY RAINS, THE
GROUNDWATER SPRAYS INTO THE
BASEMENT.
>> IT'S LIKE SOMEONE IS STANDING
WITH A SQUIRT GUN BEHIND THE
WALLS AND JUST IT COMES THROUGH
EVERYWHERE.
>> WHEN THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
HEAVY RAINS, SANDY CAN'T SLEEP.
>> VERY OVERWHELMING.
ALL I DO IS RUN BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN THE TWO HOUSES AND MOVES
PUMPS AND HOSES.
>> BUT SANDY SAYS IT WASN'T LIKE
THIS WHEN SHE BOUGHT THESE
HOUSES.
THIS CREEK AND POND WOULD
OCCASIONALLY DRY UP.
>> LIKE I SAY, THERE WASN'T EVEN
WATER IN THIS CREEK.
I MOWED ACROSS IT.
>> THE WATER LEVEL IN PLACES
AROUND SAWYER COUNTY IS JUST
HIGHER THAN IT'S EVER BEEN.
>> IT'S AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
DRAINAGE SYSTEM SO IT HAS
NOWHERE TO GO FROM HERE.
>> THE FIRE CHIEF AND PUBLIC
WORKS DIRECTOR FOR THE TOWN OF
HAYWARD HAS BEEN MONITORING THIS
ROAD.
>> THERE WOULD BE STRUCTURE
ISSUES THAT HAVE TO BE
ADDRESSED.
>> HE CAN FIX THE ROAD, BUT THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW SOON WILL
HE HAVE TO DO IT AGAIN?
>> ARE WE GOING TO BE ADDRESSING
THESE PROBLEMS CONTINUALLY FOR
THE NEXT 20, 50 YEARS?
>> YOU CAN SEE THE FULL REPORT
NEXT FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY AN
INTERVIEW WITH STATE
TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY DID HE
DESIGNEE CRAIG THOMPSON.
WILL CUSHMAN REPORTS HOW OTHER
COMMUNITIES ARE GRAPPLING WITH
REBUILDING AFTER REPEATED
FLOODING AND STORMS.
THAT IS OUR PROGRAM FOR TONIGHT.
I'M HF. FREDERICA FREYBERG.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.
>> FUNDING FOR "HERE AND NOW" IS
PROVIDED, IN PART, BY FRIENDS OF
WISCONSIN PUBLIC