AT THE POLARIZED POLITICS AT THE
STATE LEGISLATURE.
THE GOOD OLE DAYS, BOTH SIDES
COULD WORK TOGETHER AND SOLVE
PROBLEMS.
A NEW STUDY LOOKS AT THAT.
UW GREEN BAY POLITICAL SCIENTIST
AARON WEINSCHENK JOINS US FROM
GREEN BAY.
THANKS FOR JOINING US.
>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
>> IT TURNS OUT THE GOOD OLE
DAYS WERE BETTER.
YOUR STUDY LOOKS AT ROLL CALL
VOTES ON THE FLOOR TO SEE HOW
OFTEN MEMBERS VOTE WITH THE
OPPOSITE PARTY AND WHAT DOES IT
SHOW?
>> YEAH.
LEGISLATORS IN WISCONSIN ARE
VERY DIVIDED ON THE BASIS OF
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY.
THEY'RE FURTHER APART NOW THAN
THEY EVER HAVE BEEN IN THE DATA
THAT WE HAVE.
>> AND HOW FAR BACK DID YOU
LOOK?
WHEN DOES THIS TREND START?
>> WE HAVE DATA GOING BACK TO
THE MID TO LATE 1990s AND THEN
EVERY YEAR SINCE THEN UP TO
2016.
SO WE HAVE A PRETTY LONG TIME
SERIES WHERE WE CAN LOOK AT THE
IDEOLOGICAL DIVIDE AND IT'S BEEN
GROWING EVERY YEAR IN WISCONSIN.
>> YOU LOOKED AT THE REST OF THE
MIDWEST.
HOW DOES WISCONSIN COMPARE TO
STATES SURROUNDING US?
>> I WAS ABLE TO LOOK AT THE
DISTANCE BETWEEN THE PARTIES IN
OUR NEIGHBORING STATES.
THERE AGAIN, WE'RE ONE OF THE
MOST POLARIZED STATES.
THERE'S ONLY ONE STATE THAT'S
MORE POLARIZED THAN US, PYSH
BEGAN.
WE'RE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
MINNESOTA AND MICHIGAN.
>> WITH THE LOOK AT THE ROLL
CALL VOTES, IS THAT THE BEST
WAY?
DO POLITICIANS THEMSELVES AGREE
THAT'S A FAIR WAY TO JUDGE
POLARIZATION?
>> YEAH.
THAT'S A PRETTY STANDARD WAY OF
MEASURING IT IN POLITICAL
SCIENCE.
THAT'S WHAT WE'VE DONE IN THE
U.S. CONGRESS, WHICH A LOT OF
PEOPLE HEAR ABOUT AND IS
FREQUENTLY REPORTED ON IN THE
NATIONAL NEWS.
IT'S A PRETTY BASIC WAY OF
CAPTURING IDEOLOGY OF
POLITICIANS.
>> FOR INSTANCE, IN WISCONSIN WE
JUST HAD THE BUDGET VOTE AND THE
DEMOCRATS IN THE LEGISLATURE ALL
VOTED AGAINST THE BUDGET THAT
WAS PASSED AND YET THEY STOOD
BEHIND GOVERNOR EVERS WHEN HE
SIGNED HIS PARTIALLY VETOED
VERSION OF IT AND REPUBLICANS
ARE CRITICIZING THEM SAYING YOU
VOTED AGAINST THIS BUDGET, NOW
YOU'RE STANDING BEHIND IT.
HOW WOULD THAT VOTE INFLUENCE
THEIR ROLL CALL VOTES?
SHOW ONING MORESHOWING MORE POLARIZATION.
>> I THINK THAT'S A PICTURE OF
THE LEGISLATORS BEING PRETTY
DIVIDED, BUT MAYBE A GESTURE BY
GOVERNOR EVERS THAT HE'S WILLING
TO WORK WITH REPUBLICANS.
I'M SURE THAT'S NOT HIS IDEAL
BUDGET.
REPUBLICANS GOT A LOT OUT OF IT.
MAYBE THAT'S HIM SAYING I'M
TRYING TO WORK WITH YOU.
BUT I THINK THAT ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY AFTERWARDS THERE WAS
MOTION OR PROPOSAL PUT FORWARD
BY REPUBLICANS TO CURTAIL SOME
OF THE GOVERNOR'S POWER AND I
THINK THAT'S POLARIZATION
REARING ITS HEAD AGAIN WHERE
IT'S SORT OF TRYING TO CHANGE
THE RULES OR LIMIT THE POWER OF
SOMEBODY IN AN INSTITUTION WHO
YOU MAYBE DISAGREE WITH.
>> IN MANY CASES IN WISCONSIN
GERRYMANDERING HAS CREATED
LOCKED DISTRICTS, WHERE ONLY ONE
PARTY CAN WIN ND A THE PRIMARY
IS THE REAL RACE.
THE ONLY WAY AN INCUMBENT CAN
LOSE IS THEY DON'T FOLLOW THE
PARTY LINE.
HOW MUCH DOES THAT HAVE TO DO
WITH POLARIZATION?
>> I THINK THAT'S A BIG PART OF
IT.
THESE DAYS PARTIES WANT TO
CONTROL WHO RUNS FOR OFFICE.
WE HEAR ABOUT PARTIES
CHALLENGING A PERSON WHO'S A
MEMBER OF THEIR PARTY WHO
DOESN'T DO EXACTLY WHAT THEY
WANT OR SPENDING A LOT OF MONEY
TO PUT UP AN OPPONENT.
SO THAT DEFINITELY IS AN EFFECT
OF POLARIZATION.
>> EVEN IF THE NEXT ROUND OF
REDISTRICTING RESULTS IN MORE
COMPETITIVE THERE ARE MORE
FACTORS OUT THERE, INCREASE IN
SPECIAL INTEREST MONEY IN
ELECTIONS.
SO IN SHORT, DOESN'T LOOK LIKE
POLARIZATION IS IT GOING AWAY
ANYTIME SOON.
>> NO.
DEFINITELY NOT.
THERE'S A LIMIT.
MATHEMATICALLY THERE'S A POINT
WHERE WE CAN'T GET ANY MORE
POLARIZED IF EVERY SINGLE PERSON
HAS AN EXTREME IDEOLOGICAL
POSITION.
WE'RE NOT THERE YET, BUT WE'RE
GETTING PRETTY CLOSE.
THERE AREN'T MANY MODERATES LEFT
IN CONGRESS OR STATE
LEGISLATURES.
>> THE STRUCTURE OF THE AMERICAN
POLITICAL SYSTEM FORCES TWO
PARTIES TO EXIST AND DOESN'T
LEAVE ROOM FOR A THIRD PARTY.
BUT IF THE PARTIES KEEP DRIFTING
TO THE RIGHT AND THE LEFT, DOES
THAT OPEN UP ROOM IN THE MIDDLE
FOR A CONSISTENT THIRD PARTY TO
ACTUALLY REALIZE POWER AS
OPPOSED TO JUST BEING PERHAPS A
SPOILER IN SOME ELECTIONS?
>> YEAH.
I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE PRETTY
DIFFICULT FOR A THIRD PARTY TO
EMERGE IN AMERICAN POLITICS
GIVEN THE WAY THAT WE OPERATE
OUR ELECTIONS.
I THINK THAT IT DOES GENERATE A
LOT OF DISSATISFACTION AND THAT
MAY BE WHY PEOPLE ARE LOOKING
TOWARDS UNCONVENTIONAL
POLITICIANS OR OCCASIONALLY
THIRD PARTIES.
BUT I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT FOR A THIRD PARTY TO
WIN ELECTIONS AT THE NATIONAL
LEVEL.
>> DOES THIS JUST CREATE MORE
CYNICISM FOR VOTERS WHO MAY BE
IN ONE OF THOSE DISTRICTS WHERE
THEY DON'T AGREE WITH THE
POLITICIAN IN POWER, BUT THEY
HAVE NO WAY TO GET THEM OUT?
VOTERS ARE THE ONLY ONES THAT
CAN CHANGE THIS, RIGHT?
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
IT IS A SELF-REINFORCING CYCLE.
VOTERS SOMETIMES WITHDRAW WHEN
THEY THINK THAT THINGS ARE
GRIDLOCKED AND THERE'S NOTHING
THEY CAN DO ABOUT IT.
WHEN YOU ASK PEOPLE WHO SAY THEY
DON'T LIKE LEGISLATORS OR
CONGRESS WHAT IT IS THEY DON'T
LIKE, MORE THAN 50% WILL TELL
YOU SOMETHING RELATED TO
GRIDLOCK OR BEING STUCK OR BEING
TOO DIVIDED.
SO IT DEFINITELY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO HOW THE PUBLIC SEES THESE
INSTITUTIONS.
>> ALL RIGHT.
AARON WEINSCHENK IN GREEN WAY,
THANK YOU FOR