"KILLER HEAT" A GROUP CALLED THE
UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS
THIS WEEK SHOWED HOW IF LEFT
UNABATED HEAT-TRAPPING EMISSIONS
COULD TURN THE CLIMATE OF
WISCONSIN INTO THAT OF
ARKANSAS'S.
TODAY BETWEEN 105 AND 115
DEGREES FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURE.
THERE HAS BEEN ONE DAY ON
AVERAGE WITH A HEAT INDEX OF
OVER 100.
IT COULD INCREASE TO 14 AND TO
32 SUCH DAYS BY THE END OF THE
CENTURY.
HOW DOES THIS STUDY SQUARE WITH
THE WORK OF OUR OWN SCIENTISTS
HERE IN WISCONSIN?
WE CHECK IN WITH MICHAEL NOTARO
AND THE NELSON INSTITUTE FOR
CLIMATIC RESEARCH AND THANKS
VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.
>> YOU'RE VERY WELCOME.
>> AS WE MENTIONED, IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THE HEAT INDEX IS
BETWEEN 105 AND 115 DEGREES.
HOW CLOSE IS THAT TO WHAT
SCIENTISTS DESCRIBE AS
OFF-THE-CHARTS HEAT?
>> WELL, RIGHT NOW I THINK THIS
IS ABOUT AS HOT AS IT'S BEEN
SINCE ABOUT 2012, SO WE HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90s.
WE HAVE DEW POINTS THAT ARE IN
THE MID 70s.
WE HAVE HEAT INDICES ABOUT 105.
THEREFORE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.
IN 2012 WE GOT ABOUT 103 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, BUT COMPARABLE HEAT
INDICES.
THIS IS PRETTY HIGH UP THERE,
MUCH MORE INTENSE THAN WE
TYPICALLY GET IN WISCONSIN.
WITH THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING,
PEOPLE ARE BEING ADVISED TO BE
CAREFUL, EVEN HEALTHY ADULTS AT
THIS POINT.
>> SO WHEN CLINICAL SCIENTISTS
SEE THIS KIND OF PERHAPS "KILLER
HEAT," DO YOU ATTRIBUTE IT TO
CLIMATE CHANGE OR EMISSIONS?
>> I WOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE A
SINGLE EVENT TO HUMAN-INDUCED
CLIMATE CHANGE AS CONSISTENT OF
WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT IN THAT
DIRECTION.
THERE'S A STUDY FROM UC-DAVIS
WHICH SHOWED WE HAVE IN THE
MIDWEST WHAT'S CALLED A WARMING
HOLE, WHERE THE SUMMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT YET
WARMED, BUT THE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
HAVE BEEN INCREASING.
AS YOU REFERRED TO FROM THE
STUDY FROM THE UNION OF
CONCERNED SCIENTISTS, THERE'S A
LARGE PROJECTED INCREASE IN HEAT
INDICES.
IT'S CONSISTENT IN THAT
DIRECTION, BUT IT'S DIFFICULT TO
ATTRIBUTE SINGLE EVENTS TO
CLIMATE CHANGE.
>> DOES YOUR RESEARCH SQUARE
WITH THIS UNION OF CONCERNED
SCIENTISTS?
>> YES.
I'VE BEEN INVOLVED WITH A
COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON,
THE DNR AND OTHER STATE
GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, ALONG WITH
TRIBAL ORGANIZATIONS AND
BUSINESSES.
WE'VE DONE A LOT OF WHAT'S
CALLED DOWN SCALING WORK, TRYING
TO DEVELOP CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
FOR WISCONSIN.
A LOT OF WHAT THEY'VE GENERATED
THROUGH THEIR STUDY WAS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE FOUND.
THEY'RE USING THE SAME SET OF
MODELS AND ESTIMATES USED BY THE
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THEY'RE USING
A VERY COMMONLY USED STATISTICAL
CLIMATE CHANGE PRODUCT.
SO IT'S CONSISTENT.
>> SO ONE FINDING WAS BY
MID-CENTURY WITH NO REDUCTION IN
EMISSIONS A THIRD OF THE UNITED
STATES WILL EXPERIENCE OFF THE
CHART HEAT INDEXES.
>> BASICALLY YOU CAN PICTURE A
HEAT INDEX TABLE ON WHICH THEY
SHOW THE HIGH TEMPERATURE VERSUS
HELL RIFFVERSUS-- RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
WHEN IT GETS HIGH ENOUGH, THE
HEAT INDEX IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED A RELIABLE MEASURE.
THEY'RE ESTIMATING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF OUR
COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO THAT REALM.
EVEN BY THE END OF THE CENTURY
PARTS OF WISCONSIN MAY ENCOUNTER
THOSE KIND OF HEAT EXPERIENCES.
OBVIOUSLY, IF YOU ZOOM BACK TO
THE JULY, 2012 EPISODE, EVEN IN
WISCONSIN THERE WAS ABOUT A
DOZEN DEATHS AND HUNDREDS OF
HOSPITALIZATIONS AND THAT PALES
IN COMPARISON TO WHAT MAY COME.
THIS IS GOING TO BE THE NEW NORM
BY THE END OF THE END OF THE
CENTURY, MORE TYPICAL OF WHAT
YOU GET IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES
WITH EXPECTED WARMING OF AIR
TEMPERATURES.
>> WHAT DO YOU SAY TO PEOPLE WHO
MIGHT DISCOUNT THIS KIND OF
RESEARCH AND FIND IT TO BE EX
EXAGGERATED?
>> WELL, ONE OF THE LATEST SHOWS
EVIDENCE IS RELATED TO WARMING
THROUGH HUMAN ACTIVITIES IS
THROUGH THE IPCC, A SERIES OF
CLIMATE MODELS HAVE BEEN RUN
BOTH WITH HUMAN-INDUCED CARBON
EMISSIONS AND WITHOUT DID.
THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN PRODUCE THE
WARMING IS TO INCLUDE HUMAN
EMISSIONS.
WE KNOW THE OBVIOUS SOURCE OF
EVIDENCE OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND
THE KNOWN PHYSICS FIND THEM,
TRAPPING IN RADIATION, PRODUCING
WARMING.
SO IT'S LOGICAL.
YOU CAN LOOK AT THE GLOBAL
TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN HAPPENING
UP TO NOW.
ALMOST THE WHOLE WORLD IS
WARMING.
ENTSZ AREEVENTS ARE BECOMING MORE
EXTREME, CONSISTENT WITH WHAT
THE CLIMATE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING.
>> WHAT KIND OF ACTION COULD
SLOW THE INCREASE IN THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES?
>> THE NICE THING WITH THE UNION
OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS REPORT
IS THERE'S A SENSE OF HOPE
OFFERED THERE IN THAT THEY WERE
SHOWING THAT IF WE ARE RIGOROUS
IN ATTACKING OUR EMISSIONS NOW,
THAT MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO, WE
CAN DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE
EXTREME HEAT BY THE END OF THE
CENTURY IN PARTICULAR.
SO THAT'S ENCOURAGING.
WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT
IT.
BUT THAT INVOLVES BEING VERY
PROACTIVE, REDUCING THE USE OF
FOSSIL FUELS, RELYING ON CLEAN
ENERGIES, BECOMING ACTIVE IN THE
PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT.
LIKEWISE, FOR THE LOW AND HIGH
END EMISSION SCENARIOS, IT'S
GOING TO GET HOTTER, SO WE NEED
TO ADAPT ALSO.
AND THAT INVOLVES, AS
RECOMMENDED, DEVELOPING PLANS TO
PROTECT VULNERABLE POPULATIONS,
MAPPING OUT WHERE THOSE
POPULATIONS ARE, COMING UP WITH
MORE CLEAN ENERGIES, ENERGIES
THAT WE DON'T LOSE POWER SO
EASILY, KEEP THE ENERGY,
ELECTRICITY FLOWING FOR PEOPLE
EVEN IF THEY DON'T PAY THEIR
BILLS, HAVING EMERGENCY PLANS.
THOSE ARE ALL SORTS OF
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION.
>> YOU MENTIONED PRECIPITATION
AS PART OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
SO WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THAT
FRONT IN WISCONSIN EVEN AS WE
SPEAK?
>> YEAH.
SO WISCONSIN HAS BEEN SIMILAR TO
MOST OF THE WORLD, WHERE EXTREME
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE BECOMING
MORE FREQUENT AND MORE INTENSE.
THE PHYSICS BEHIND THAT IS AS
AIR IS WARMER, IT BECOMES A MORE
EFFECTIVE SPONGE OF MOISTURE.
YOU HAVE LARGER DOWNPOURS.
YOU CAN SEE PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN A
VAST INCREASE NOT JUST OF ANNUAL
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE FREQUENCY
OF RAINFALL EVENTS, FLOODING
EVENTS.
NOT JUST THE LAKE DELTON EVENT.
THOSE HAVE LARGE EFFECTS.
OVERALL YOU CAN ARGUE THAT THE
BIGGEST EFFECTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ARE THE EXTREMES, SO THE
HOT DAYS LIKE TODAY, WHICH
STRESS HUMAN HEALTH, HEAVY
FLOODING EVENTS FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.
>> ALL RIGHT.
MICHAEL NOTARO, THANKS FOR YOUR
WORK.
>> YOU'RE VERY WELCOME.