- WISCONSIN HAS SNAPPED BACK FROM THE GREAT RECESSION,
WITH THE WORST-HIT COUNTIES MAKING THE STRONGEST COMEBACK.
BUT SMALL COUNTIES LOST POPULATION DURING THE ECONOMIC
BAD TIMES, GIVING A BOOST TO LARGER, MORE URBAN AREAS.
THESE ARE THE FINDINGS FROM A NEW PAPER FROM THE UW-MADISON
CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON THE WISCONSIN ECONOMY.
THE CENTER'S DIRECTOR AND PAPER'S AUTHOR,
UW-MADISON PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS NOAH WILLIAMS IS HERE
WITH MORE.
THANKS FOR BEING HERE. - HAPPY TO BE HERE.
- SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE COUNTIES HIT THE HARDEST BY
THE RECESSION WERE ALWAYS THE ONES THAT EXPERIENCED
THE LARGEST CATCH-UP RECOVERY.
- THAT'S RIGHT.
PARTICULARLY I LOOKED AT SEVERAL DIFFERENT MEASURES OF LIVING
STANDARDS, WHETHER IT'S UNEMPLOYMENT, INCOMES,
POVERTY RATES, ALL OF THOSE.
THE COUNTIES WHICH HAD THE WORST TIME DURING THE RECESSION HAD
SEEN THE LARGEST GROWTH AND THE LARGEST RECOVERY.
- IN FACT, A PRIME EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS MENOMONIE COUNTY,
WHERE ITS PEAK EMPLOYMENT IN 2010 WAS 15.3% DOWN TO A 2017
RATE OF 4.3%.
BUT WOULD THESE FINDINGS BE UNEXPECTED?
- TO SOME EXTENT WE DO EXPECT WHERE THERE IS MORE SLACK,
WE WOULD SEE FASTER RECOVERY.
SO THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS I WANTED TO LOOK AT,
WAS ALSO NOT JUST THE CHANGE SINCE THE RECESSION,
BUT FROM 2007 RIGHT BEFORE THE RECESSION ONWARDS.
AND EVEN OVER THAT PERIOD WHICH SORT OF NETS OUT THE DECLINE AND
THE RECOVERY, WE HAVE SEEN A CONVERGENCE.
WE HAVE SEEN THE WORST-PERFORMING COUNTIES
DO THE BEST OVER THAT WHOLE SPAN.
- YOU ALSO FOUND THAT RURAL COUNTIES ARE LOSING PEOPLE.
YOU FOUND THAT COUNTY POPULATION SHIFTED DURING THE RECESSION,
WITH RURAL COUNTIES LOSING POPULATION TO URBAN AREAS.
DANE COUNTY, THOUGH, GAINING LIKE 12.6%.
- YES.
- COMPARED TO THE STATE AVERAGE OF 4%.
HOW DOES THIS POPULATION SHIFT AND MOVEMENT AFFECT
THE LABOR LANDSCAPE?
- YEAH.
SO WE-- A VERY PROMINENT POLICY ISSUE WHICH HAS COME UP RECENTLY
PARTICULARLY WITH THE LOW STATEWIDE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS
BEEN LABOR FORCE SHORTAGES.
EMPLOYERS HAVING DIFFICULTY FINDING PEOPLE TO FILL JOBS.
AND THIS SHOWS THAT THAT'S REALLY PARTICULARLY ACUTE IN
SOME OF THE SMALLER COMMUNITIES.
WE HAVE SEEN-- I MEAN, IF YOU LOOK ACROSS COUNTIES,
12 OUT OF THE 13 SMALLEST EXPERIENCED A NET POPULATION
LOSS.
AVERAGE LOSS OF ABOUT 4% OVER THE PAST DECADE.
WHEREAS ALL OF THE 16 LARGEST HAD AN INCREASE,
WITH DANE COUNTY BEING THE LARGEST.
- WOULD THE EXPLANATION FOR THAT BE THAT PEOPLE IN THOSE
SMALLER RURAL COUNTIES HIT HARD BY THE RECESSION WERE MOVING TO
LARGER POPULATION CENTERS FOR WORK?
- THAT'S CERTAINLY PART OF IT, YES.
THAT GOES ALONG WITH A LOT OF THE PROCESS,
WHAT WE CALL CONVERGENCE WITH NARROWING OF INCOME GAPS.
SOME OF THAT CAME ABOUT BY INTERNAL MIGRATION,
BY PEOPLE MOVING TO WHERE THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY.
SO THE PEOPLE WHO ARE LEFT IN THE SMALLER AREAS ARE THE ONES
WHO ARE ACTUALLY DOING BETTER.
- HOW HAS THE DECADE SINCE THE GREAT RECESSION
TREATED WISCONSIN INCOMES?
- WISCONSIN INCOMES, OVERALL
IT'S BEEN SLOW BUT STEADY GROWTH.
AVERAGE INCOME GROWTH ON THE ORDER OF 2% TO 3%.
BUT, AGAIN, THERE'S BEEN BIG DIVERGENCE ACROSS COUNTIES,
WITH AGAIN THE INITIALLY POORER COUNTIES INCREASING THE MOST.
SO ONE EXAMPLE I GAVE IN THE PAPER WAS IRON COUNTY UP IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
OVER THE LAST DECADE, SAW 30% PER CAPITA INCOME INCREASE,
WHEREAS THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE OVER THAT WHOLE PERIOD
WAS ABOUT 9%.
- NOW, YOU COMPARED NOT JUST WISCONSIN COUNTIES TO EACH
OTHER, BUT YOU COMPARED WISCONSIN TO OTHER STATES
IN THE UNITED STATES.
HOW DOES WISCONSIN STAND OUT?
- SO ONE THING WE SEE, THERE WERE SIMILAR OVERALL TRENDS
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES, BOTH LOOKING AT THE STATE LEVEL AND
AT THE COUNTY LEVEL.
WHERE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES WERE HIGHEST,
THEY'VE COME DOWN THE MOST.
WHERE WISCONSIN STANDS OUT ON THAT IS WE'VE SEEN A LARGER
REDUCTION IN UNEMPLOYMENT THAN OTHER STATES AROUND THE COUNTRY.
AND YOU SEE THAT KIND OF UNIFORMLY ACROSS COUNTIES
WITHIN THE STATE.
SIMILARLY WITH POPULATION DYNAMICS,
WE'VE SEEN INCREASED CONCENTRATION IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS HAS BEEN AN ONGOING PROCESS AROUND THE COUNTRY.
WHERE WISCONSIN STANDS OUT THERE IS OUR OVERALL POPULATION GROWTH
HAS BEEN LOWER.
SO THE SMALLER COUNTIES HAVE REALLY LOST POPULATION
AND THAT'S EVEN MORE OF AN ACUTE PROBLEM IN WISCONSIN.
- ALL RIGHT.
PROFESSOR NOAH WILLIAMS, THANKS VERY MUCH.
- THANK YOU.