- A FIRST LOOK TONIGHT AT HOW WISCONSINITES FEEL ABOUT
CANDIDATES IN THE RUNNING THIS YEAR AND ABOUT ISSUES IMPORTANT
TO THE STATE.
THIS WEEK, THE LATEST MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL CAME OUT AND
SOME OF ITS RESULTS ARE SURPRISING.
WE'RE JOINED BY PROFESSOR OF LAW AND PUBLIC POLICY AND DIRECTOR
OF THE MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL, CHARLES FRANKLIN.
THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.
- GOOD TO BE BACK.
- ACCORDING TO YOUR POLLING, DONALD TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING
HAS TICKED UP SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS TIME LAST YEAR.
BUT DO HIS NUMBERS DEPEND KIND OF ON THE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
NEWS CYCLE?
- WELL, THEY DO, I THINK.
HE'S BEEN ACTUALLY SORT OF SURPRISINGLY STEADY.
WAS AT 41 IN JUNE.
IS AT 43% APPROVAL NOW.
SO JUST A LITTLE BIT OF A TICK UP.
NATIONALLY HE TICKED UP A LITTLE BIT OVER THIS PERIOD, TOO.
HE ALSO TICKED UP JUST SLIGHTLY IN SOME OTHER MEASURES.
BUT FOR THE MOST PART, PEOPLE ARE DIVIDED AS YOU WOULD EXPECT.
89% OF REPUBLICANS APPROVE.
89% OF DEMOCRATS DISAPPROVE.
INDEPENDENTS SPLIT 34/57, SO THAT'S MAYBE THE MORE TELLING
GROUP, NOT THE PARTISANS, BUT THOSE INDEPENDENTS.
- 57 DISAPPROVE?
- YES.
- SO IF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ANY MEASURE FOR THE NOVEMBER VOTE, HOW DOES THAT
AFFECT GOVERNOR WALKER?
- WELL, GOVERNOR WALKER IS AT ABOUT THE SAME PLACE HE WAS LAST
SUMMER.
HE'S AT 47 APPROVE, 47 DISAPPROVE.
IT WAS 48/48 LAST SUMMER.
A YEAR AGO HE WAS JUST A SHADE DOWN FROM THAT AT 45/48.
SO SLIGHTLY UNDER WATER.
HE'S COME BACK UP TO EVEN LAST SUMMER AND STILL IS.
- IS IT HARD FOR HIM TO MOVE THAT NEEDLE EVEN THOUGH HE IS
SEEMINGLY TRYING VERY HARD TO MODERATE?
- I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO REALIZE THIS IS A GOVERNOR
WHO HAS WON HIS ELECTIONS, INCLUDING THE RECALL
WITH 52%, 53%, 52%.
THIS IS NOT A BLOWOUT WINNER IN ANY OF THESE RACES.
AND VERY, VERY STABLE.
SO WHEN WE LOOK AT HIS FIRST TERM,
HIS AVERAGE WAS JUST OVER 49 APPROVE.
DISAPPROVE AVERAGE JUST OVER 44.
SO MAYBE HE'S JUST A LITTLE BIT TIGHTER
THAN HE WAS IN THE FIRST TERM.
- NOW, HIS CHALLENGERS IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ARE MANY,
SO MANY THAT WE DIDN'T MAKE A SCREEN TO FILL OUT
ALL THEIR NAMES BUT WHO STANDS OUT?
- I THINK THE REAL MESSAGE HERE IS VOTERS HAVE NOT YET TUNED
INTO THIS RACE OR THE REPUBLICAN SENATE RACE.
AND SO OVER TWO-THIRDS OF VOTERS SAY
THEY DON'T KNOW ENOUGH TO HAVE AN OPINION ABOUT THESE.
TONY EVERS, THE SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT,
HAS THE MOST NAME RECOGNITION BUT EVEN FOR HIM,
TWO-THIRDS OF VOTERS SAY
THEY DON'T HAVE ENOUGH INFORMATION ABOUT HIM.
HE DOES A LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN THE OTHERS IN FAVORABILITY
FAVORABILITY AND A LITTLE BIT BETTER IN THE PRIMARY TRIAL HEAT
BUT ALL OF IT'S ESSENTIALLY INSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR
AND WHEN WE LOOK AT THE PRIMARY VOTE,
44% OF DEMOCRATS SAY THEY DON'T KNOW
WHO THEY'RE GOING TO VOTE FOR.
AND FOR MOST OF THE CANDIDATES, DEM AND REP ALIKE,
IT'S WELL OVER THREE-QUARTERS
WHO DON'T HAVE AN OPINION ABOUT THEM.
- THAT HOLDS TRUE IN THE SUPREME COURT RACE, THOUGH
DALLET TOPPED SCRENOCK BY FOUR.
BUT THESE "DON'T KNOW" NUMBERS SEEM PRETTY STARTLING.
AND THEY DON'T HAVE A LOT OF TIME.
- AND ESPECIALLY REMEMBER WE'RE COMING OFF A PRIMARY
THAT WAS HELD JUST A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO.
OVER THREE-QUARTERS DON'T HAVE AN OPINION ABOUT EITHER ONE
I THINK IT WOULD BE FOLLY TO READ TOO MUCH
MUCH INTO THE COMPARISON OF THESE TWO NUMBERS
GIVEN HOW FEW PEOPLE KNOW THEM
ALSO REMEMBER SPRING ELECTIONS HAVE A LOW TURNOUT RATE.
I BELIEVE IT WAS ABOUT 11% STATEWIDE
THAT TURNED OUT IN THE PRIMARY.
HISTORICALLY IT'LL BE AROUND 20% THAT TURN OUT IN APRIL.
- CONTRARY TO THAT, 75% OF RESPONDENTS DID HAVE AN OPINION
ON TAMMY BALDWIN AND HER NUMBERS HAVE SLIPPED JUST A LITTLE BIT.
- SLIPPED A LITTLE BIT.
SHE'S TWO POINTS MORE UNFAVORABLE THAN FAVORABLE RIGHT
NOW, WITH 20% PLUS NOT HAVING AN OPINION ABOUT HER.
THAT'S DOWN BARELY AT ALL FROM JUNE, BUT DOWN A LITTLE BIT FROM
A YEAR AGO IN MARCH.
THERE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING BY OUTSIDE GROUPS CRITICIZING HER
OVER THAT PERIOD, AND I THINK YOU MIGHT LOOK AT IT AND SAY IS
THAT ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR A THREE OR FOUR-POINT MOVE IN
THOSE TWO NUMBERS.
YEAH, MAYBE IT IS.
BUT ALSO SHE HAS JUST BEGUN HER ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN.
SO IN THE WORLD OF THESE CAMPAIGNS, HERS IS SORT OF THE
FIRST ONE TO HEAT UP.
- FOR HER REPUBLICAN CHALLENGERS THAT WILL BE DOING A
FACE OFF IN A PRIMARY, REPUBLICAN VOTERS THAT YOU SURVEYED, YOU
FOUND THAT NEARLY HALF DIDN'T KNOW THEM?
- FAR MORE THAN HALF WERE UNABLE TO RATE THEM.
83 AND 85% UNABLE TO RATE EACH OF THEM.
AND IN THE VOTE QUESTION, 49% SAID THEY DIDN'T KNOW HOW THEY
WERE GOING TO VOTE.
SO JUST AS WITH THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, VOTERS AREN'T TUNED
INTO THIS.
THE CANDIDATES HAVEN'T BEEN ADVERTISING ENOUGH, HAVEN'T BEEN
IN THE NEWS ENOUGH, HAVE NOT YET MADE THEMSELVES KNOWN TO VOTERS.
- ALL OF THAT WILL TICK UP IN THE COMING DAYS, NO DOUBT.
I WANT TO SKIP ALONG TO ONE OF YOUR ISSUE POLLING QUESTIONS AND
THAT HAS TO DO WITH GUNS.
YOU FOUND THAT 81% OF YOUR RESPONDENTS FAVORED UNIVERSAL
BACKGROUND CHECKS AND 56% SUPPORT BANS ON ASSAULT RIFLES.
WERE THOSE NUMBERS SURPRISING TO YOU?
- ACTUALLY, THEY'RE IN LINE WITH WHAT WE'VE SEEN BEFORE.
THEY HADN'T GONE UP.
IN FACT, THE BACKGROUND CHECKS WAS DOWN A COUPLE OF POINTS FROM
TWO YEARS AGO.
BUT THEY SHOW THE CONSENSUS ON BACKGROUND CHECKS.
IT'S SORT OF A COMMON SENSE THING TO DO.
78% OF GUN HOUSEHOLDS FAVOR BACKGROUND CHECKS.
86% OF NON HOUSEHOLDS.
SO THAT'S AS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUAL ISSUE ON A DIVISIVE
TOPIC AS YOU'RE EVER GOING TO SEE.
THE ISSUE IS THE STATE LEGISLATURE HERE AND THE
NATIONAL CONGRESS IN WASHINGTON, DESPITE THIS HUGE CONSENSUS ON
THIS ONE PARTICULAR TOPIC, IS UNABLE TO CRAFT A LEGISLATIVE
MAJORITY TO MOVE ON IT.
ASSAULT WEAPONS, ON THE OTHER HAND, ARE MORE LIKELY DIVISIVE
ISSUE WITH A MAJORITY OF GUN HOUSEHOLDS OPPOSING A BAN,
A MAJORITY OF NON-GUN HOUSEHOLDS FAVORING A BAN.
- CHARLES FRANKLIN, THANK YOU FOR YOUR WORK.