The results of the 10th Senate election
received national headlines.
Joining us now to talk about the implications of this race is
Michael Wagner, Professor of Journalism at UW-Madison.
Thanks for your time today. - My pleasure.
- It's always dangerous to read too much into
low turnout special elections, but that hasn't stopped
both the Democratic Party and Governor Walker
from giving immediate reactions.
- That's right.
Usually it's dangerous as you say, to say,
Okay, we had one special election.
That means whatever happened in that is going to happen in an
election that takes place 10 or 11 months later with way more
candidates and way more entrenched partisan areas where
the political battle is more conventional.
It's dangerous to look too far ahead.
On the other hand, of the 70 or so special elections around the
country, Democrats have improved their position in about 74% of
those, an average of 12 points or so per race.
They haven't won all of these.
In those races, about 34 flipped from Republican to Democrat.
Four flipped the other way from Democrat to Republican.
But the Democrats have certainly had results that make a wave
election and talk of a wave election reasonable.
Whether that will be as large as this 12 percent advantage
they're enjoying in the special elections I think is a little
less likely but it's certainly the case that Republicans ought
to be worried as evidenced by the governor's behavior on
Twitter right after the special one here in Wisconsin.
- The theme for most of those races is that the GOP is losing
educated women, college-educated people in the suburbs.
That's what happened in St. Croix County.
In Wisconsin, those voters are in Waukesha County,
suburban Milwaukee County.
Those are hot bed Republican areas.
Could we see that same trend hold there?
- It's certainly possible.
In St. Croix County, there was an 11-point win for Schachtner.
But Sheila Harsdorf won that by 30 in 2016.
It's sort of amazing to see that kind of shift happen so quickly.
So in areas that have a campus community or suburban community,
especially-- and communities where women are maybe
more likely to turn out to vote as well,
those are communities where there could be big changes.
So the ones you outlined are areas where the Republicans need
to think about battening down the hatches in the elections
coming up in November.
- Republicans have had an ironclad lock on the legislature
for seven years now.
And especially with the way the maps are in their favor.
Is it possible that a wave could overtake some of the
electoral possibilities there?
- I think in the state Senate it's more of a possibility than
in the state Assembly.
The state Senate got a little bit more narrow.
Just a few seats now divide
the majority from the minority there.
If the Supreme Court redistricting case in Wisconsin
comes back and it forces a redrawing of districts,
then a wave for Democrats becomes much more likely.
If the Supreme Court comes back, rules in favor of the Democrats
but says you don't have to redraw the districts,
then we should expect a really competitive election.
And if the case comes back in favor of the Republicans,
it's a little bit more difficult for Democrats but the political
environment is better for them than it typically has been in
Wisconsin in state elections in recent years.
- Scott Walker is running on one map and that's the whole
state so he doesn't worry about any changes there.
He's had a lot of policies that have come out in a flurry
in the last few weeks.
Now he's in favor of
reforming Lincoln Hills and juvenile justice.
And the welfare reform special session.
Democrats are saying this is just him throwing anything
against the wall to make it look like he's doing good work.
Republicans say, no, this is responsible government in action.
- That's the crux of the debate.
The governor's job is to govern
and to make decisions about issues of importance
so that's what he's doing from his perspective.
Democrats as you say are making the argument that this is
too little too late or it's a decision
that's electorally-calculused in some way or another.
But that will be something that the governor will debate against
whoever his opponent is once they have a general election.
Depending upon which side of the fence you sit on at home,
you're believing one of those stories over the other.
- Meanwhile, in Washington we've got the potential for a
federal shutdown.
What could that mean in Wisconsin especially since Paul
Ryan is from here, he's a key player in this whole thing?
- From Speaker Ryan's point of view,
the House passed legislation to keep the government open.
From his point of view the House did its job
and it's up to the Senate to do theirs.
Now, Ryan will say if things don't go well in the Senate it's
because of senate Democrats, but of course Republicans have a
majority in the House, Senate and the White House.
Government shutdowns in a unified government are not
common place in American politics.
It's a more difficult argument for Republicans to make
to say we're in charge of everything
but we couldn't keep the lights on.
- Michael Wagner, thanks for your time today.
- My pleasure.