- We move along
from the race for governor to a closer look
at the 2018 U.S. Senate election.
Incumbent Tammy Baldwin faces, among other
challengers, state senator Leah Vukmir.
It's a race that is sure to be,
in the words of UW Milwaukee political scientist
Mordecai Lee, "a Donnybrook."
- I think this is gonna be the knock-down,
drag-out fight we've never, experienced in Wisconsin.
It's gonna be unbelievable.
It's gonna be negative, it's gonna be expensive,
it's gonna be hard to remember these are
two individuals.
You know, Tammy Baldwin was never thought of
as a strong politician when she was willing
to give up her seat in Congress, in Madison,
and run for statewide office.
There had never been somebody who had declared
their sexual preference, who was not heterosexual
who had won a statewide election,
and so it was assumed that she was the underdog
against Tommy Thompson, who everybody knew,
who appealed to the middle, and yet she pulled off
a brilliant victory with one ad,
the ad that said "He's not for you anymore."
In other words, Tommy Thompson is not the person
you voted for.
So I think it's important not to underrate her political
skills, because she really showed her chops
in that first election.
But because this is an off-year election that skews Republican,
I think she's got an uphill battle.
But nonetheless, both sides are mobilized.
We're already seeing TV ads and hearing radio ads,
so I think this is going to be the Donnybrook
of all political fights we've ever seen in Wisconsin.
- So, Scot, do you think it's gonna be "the Donnybrook
"of all political fights in Wisconsin?"
- Yeah, I think both the primary and the general
are gonna be incredibly competitive.
I think Tammy has advantage in the general,
which is fund-raising.
She's got amazing fundraising prowess.
The base of Wisconsin's Democratic electorate
absolutely loves her, and she ain't responsible
for any of the garbage that's going on
in Congress currently whereas things like that tax break,
you know, that just passed
that is so wildly unpopular,
both of the Republican candidates
for senate have embraced it fully.
It is a big fight.
You've got Dick Uihlein versus Diane Hendricks,
and which billionaire will prevail, right?
- You think so, too?
- Yeah, it's hard to imagine any race
being more dramatic than the recall in 2012 for governor,
but this one's gonna be close.
It will be 50, 60, 70 million dollars
in mostly out-of-state money comin' in here.
Tammy Baldwin's a top ten target
by the Republican National Senatorial Committee.
She's not number one, but she is in the top ten.
She did beat my former boss, Tommy Thompson,
largely because western Wisconsin
was really strong for her,
but remember, that's Trump country now.
That's changed a lot.
We've had three-- it doesn't happen often--
but we've had three incumbents
ousted in the state of Wisconsin: Gaylord Nelson
in 1980, Bob Kasten in 1992, Russ Feingold in 2010,
so it has happened in off-year elections,
so don't rule out the possibility
that a Republican could win the seat.
- One thing about western Wisconsin is that
it wasn't competed for by Democrats.
Ron Kind didn't have a race, so there was no message saying,
"Hey, what's going on in Washington D.C.
under Barack Obama's-- actually success?"
There wasn't any TV went it came to,
you know, the Clinton campaign.
There was no TV with Sean Duffy,
so that didn't exist in this.
I think the big thing here is,
how are the Republicans going to come together
after this primary, which is going to nasty
because the way Leah Vukmir wins
is she starts putting up ads saying Kevin Nicholson
is a Democrat, here's him speaking at the DNC,
and I don't know how you outspend to win that.
- There's no question Leah is the favorite
in that race.
She's got a record, and Scot thinks it's an accomplishment
for Tammy Baldwin, I think it's a negative
that she's not part of the mess in D.C.
She doesn't have a record of accomplishment
in her six years there, and Leah Vukmir does,
and I think that will be the greatest contrast
in the fall election is a lady that gets stuff done
and one that doesn't get much done.
- Well Republican candidates are using her opposition,
as we've discussed, to the new tax cuts against her,
but I read this from Tommy Thompson with interest,
saying that people where he's from in Juno County,
he says, quote, "A business tax cut from 39 percent
"to 22 percent doesn't mean jack to them."
How true is that?
- Well, I think it's true right now.
I think the Republicans have done a horrible job
of selling this thing.
The good news of Republicans is folks
should start to see these tax breaks
on their February, you know, checks, so that's --
by the time the election rolls around in November,
they will have ten months of tax cuts
that Tammy Baldwin's gonna have to defend
voting no against, and the Republican, again,
I think it will be Vukmir, will be able
to be on the attack.
- You can't wait to be able to get in on this.
- Yes, Dick Uihlein and Diane Hendricks,
the billionaire Republicans, will get their tax breaks,
that's for sure.
My real interest is what happened this week,
which was that the Club for Growth came out
against attacking Leah Vukmir, and do you know
what they attacked her for?
Voting for 87 million dollars in tax increases
because she supported Scott Walker's budget in 2011.
- This is the club for un-growth.
They supported Mark Neumann against Scott Walker in 2010,
they supported Eric Hovde against Tommy Thompson,
and now they're supporting a former Democrat,
Kevin Nicholson, against Leah Vukmir.
They have no relevance in the state of Wisconsin.
- [Frederica] Wow, well, you're hear from them.
- More than likely; that's okay.
- Well, I can see that this race is already
getting people fired up, namely you guys.
- This is our opportunity to--
I think it's Democrats' opportunity to be able to talk
about the bad stuff that's going on,
to connect folks to what's going on with Trump
at the federal level, and you know, again,
with Tammy, she's got one of the premiere
pieces of the Affordable Care Act puzzle,
which is allowing people under 26
to stay on their parents' healthcare.
It is wildly unpopular what the Republicans
are doing with the Affordable Care Act.
- Having been on the other side of Tammy with Tommy in 2012,
I will say that she's really smart, she works very hard,
and she'll have a ton of money,
and for Democrats, the good news for them is,
she brings out the base, no question about that.