- In tonight's Capitol Insight, we're joined by Wisconsin Public
Radio Capitol Bureau Chief Shawn Johnson to talk money.
It's kind of like finding 20 bucks in your coat pocket when
you pull it out for the winter, an unexpected if modest
windfall.
In this case state budget writers are looking at better
than expected state tax revenues and lower than expected
spending.
More now with Shawn.
Hi Shawn. - Hey Fred.
- So I want to take a look at those numbers right away,
the kinds of numbers that budget writers are now looking at.
State revenue estimates show $455 million more,
with spending at $266 million less.
So that's good news.
But people up at the capitol already have designs on
$300 million of this, right?
- It happens quickly as soon as you get a good revenue estimate,
people have ideas for it.
There's no shortage of ideas when estimates are good.
And so the thing to remember
is that this money is not in hand yet.
- It's not like that $20?
- It is not like that $20.
It's like pulling out an idea of $20 you'll have over the course
of two and a half years.
It's not there yet.
It's not to say that it won't be and it's the best number that
legislators have and the governor has as he goes ahead to
craft that budget.
But it is a projection.
- So the $300 million is something that
Speaker Robin Vos wants to make use of
to help fill this transportation budget hole.
- Yeah.
So the way that the governor said he would raise
transportation revenue is if he had a corresponding tax cut
somewhere else in the budget.
And so Assembly Republicans are saying, "All right, we have this
money now.
Let's cut taxes by $300 million in the general fund." They
didn't say how.
And then we can raise revenues in the transportation fund.
They didn't say how they would do that either.
So it's really kind of a tax swap, but this new revenue
estimate if it holds makes it possible.
- It's interesting, though, because I know that the
Republicans are intent, many of them, on this sustainable kind
of revenue for transportation, but if this is a one-time, $300
million tax reduction, or would that be forever?
Is that laid out at all?
- We don't know.
If you look at the press release where they announced this plan,
it was a lot of quotes and about one line in there that said,
"Here's basically what we want to do." The governor's office
said they're waiting on details of the plan.
So are we.
- Well, it's a good start at least to be able to talk about
having these kinds of extra revenues.
But you've reported before on the idea that sometimes
these estimates don't hold.
- You have to look back to 2014.
I mean, they had really good estimates in 2014.
They came in almost a billion dollars higher than expected.
Republicans quickly passed a tax cut.
The estimates didn't really pan out.
By the 2015 budget they were facing cuts to a variety of
agencies.
So that's the danger of putting too much stock in these
estimates.
When they're off even by a little bit in terms of
percentage, it can mean big cuts down the road potentially.
- It is good, though, notwithstanding the idea that,
you know, it's not cash in hand and they are just estimates
because the governor has these proposals to increase funding
for things like broadband and K-12 and other things.
So at least they're starting on the plus side
with their estimates.
- Right.
I mean, Assembly Republicans have their ideas.
The governor has been talking about stuff for months now
where people were saying, "How are you going to do that?"
Here's one way you could do it.
- All right. Shawn Johnson, thanks very much.