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Speaking of Milwaukee, we are just one month away from the city hosting the Republican National Convention.
And here to discuss all the election optics, our political analysts, Scott Ross and Bill McCation.
Thank you gentlemen for your time today.
Great to be here.
So let's start with the biggest X factor in this election, Donald Trump.
Bill, yesterday's report that he told the House GOP conference that Milwaukee was
quote, a horrible city since then we've seen a hundred different explanations of what he meant.
Does it even matter at this point if he says something like that?
Well first of all, I want to say I love Milwaukee.
I can't wait to show it off to 50,000 Republicans from around the country.
There's a lot to do in Milwaukee. Great restaurants, great festivals, the box, the brewers.
I mean it's a great city. They've got some challenges, sure.
People who were in the conference yesterday said that isn't exactly what he said.
The president himself has said he was talking about crime and election integrity.
You know, my advice to the Trump campaign would be be very precise in your language from this point forward.
He's never going to get the benefit of the doubt.
We know that sometimes his words are taken out of context.
The congressman who were in there from Wisconsin all said that isn't what he said.
So I'll take him at his word that he did not say that.
I think he's going to love Milwaukee when he gets here.
Scott, Republicans have been bashing Milwaukee forever.
So is this really out of context for them to say it's a horrible city?
Absolutely not.
And, you know, again, we saw yesterday the chaos that results from Donald Trump owning the Republican Party.
And you saw, I think, seven different stories from the six Republican members of Congress as to why they all, you know,
why they all think Milwaukee is a horrible city.
And I think it's just going to play terribly.
I think it's, you know, again, I think it's a sign of what's going to happen because as we get closer to the election,
Donald Trump's tour of, you know, revenge, retribution, and doing whatever he can to stay out of prison
is going to involve more of these incidents, I think.
And Republicans then having to scramble to answer.
Let's not forget he's going to be in Racine on Tuesday of next week.
So he'll have an opportunity to answer this directly.
And my hope is that he comes to Wisconsin and tells all voters what he loves about this state and why he wants to win here.
So you said the magic word prison.
July 11th is the date in which he is set to be sentenced to New York for criminal convictions.
Do you think he's accepting the nomination from Wisconsin, or is he in a jail cell, home confinement?
What's your prediction?
Well, I'm not in charge of the prosecution, so I can't tell you where he'll be for it.
But I can't tell you this.
You know, being sentenced for 34 felonies related to a hush money that you were paying, you know, for an affair,
you know, while your third wife was having your fifth kid, I don't think it's a message that Trump wants to go forward with.
The problem is that when he tries to distract from it, he does things like Horrible City.
You know, it just keeps getting worse.
And we're not even talking about the issues, abortion, health care, infrastructure, all those sorts of things, which the Republicans are on the wrong side of.
Does it matter if Trump's here?
Oh, yeah. I think it does.
I mean, the way he does conventions, he's on the stage every night.
That's very unusual in our lifetime to see that.
It's usually the final night where the nominee gives the big speech.
I expect him to be here.
I expect him to be on the stage in some shape or fashion every single night.
And again, I'm looking forward to showcasing Milwaukee.
I think he's going to find it to be an unbelievably cool city with a lot of opportunity to grow.
So I want to switch to Wisconsin elections.
We're going to have new maps this fall.
Democrats are contesting every possible race that they can get out there.
Are we going to see something like 2016 where Ron Johnson ran ahead of Trump?
Are there going to be distance between the Assembly and the Senate Republicans down ballot versus Trump up ballot?
Or how do they affect each other?
Yeah, it probably will be.
My guess is Tammy Baldwin will run ahead of Joe Biden here in the state of Wisconsin.
Ron Johnson did that with Donald Trump in 2016.
It's not unusual for the candidate who's more relatable here locally to do better.
How that plays down ballot.
What we knew from 2016 and 2020 was Republican candidates for the legislature did better than the top of the ticket across the state.
I expect that to continue.
We do have new boundaries this time around.
All the races will be more competitive.
My guess is Democrats will pick up seats in both houses of the legislature.
I don't think they're going to have an opportunity to get a majority because the top of the ticket is too close.
That's where things do come into play as it relates to the top of the ticket.
If Biden were to run away with Wisconsin, could Democrats get one house?
Probably.
He's not going to run away with Wisconsin.
Does Biden need Democrats down ballot to help him win statewide?
I think that it's all sort of a booyah base together to what brings victory to Joe Biden and to Tammy Baldwin.
And I think Bill was right.
You know, we are going to pick up seats.
Democrats are going to pick up seats in the Senate and the Assembly.
But what I think is going to happen is you have a guy at the top of the ticket, Donald Trump,
who has to win Wisconsin to win the presidency.
And I think he has put himself out of running for winning Wisconsin.
Democrats have resources.
The Democratic Party is all over the place.
I think they've got 46 coordinated campaign offices.
They've hired more than 100 people.
You know, if that raised the Republicans 15 to 1 in terms of fundraising.
And, you know, over and over and over again, Democrats are right on the issues.
I think it's important that Democrats are going to have competitive races in a lot of these areas
so it'll drive out more turnout.
Whether or not that affects the top of the ticket.
I don't know because the money is going to be spent at the top of the ticket to reinforce those
messages, again, about abortion and health care and infrastructure.
I agree with Scott.
The Democrats will have a significant cash advantage from top to bottom.
And money is a factor.
There's no question about that.
Organizationally, I think, will be about even.
And on the message, I think it's an advantage for Republicans to cycle.
All right.
A few seconds for each of you.
What are you watching the next four weeks in the run-up to Milwaukee?
I'm watching the most viewed presidential debate in history a week from now.
Or two weeks from now between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
The first presidential debate in history before national nominating conventions.
So I want to see how that plays out and does it impact the race?
Because we know all the court cases to date have not shook the numbers.
What about you?
I'm going to be watching the issues.
Be watching the way Democrats articulate the difference between what the Republicans offer
and what they offer.
And I think, again, on those Democrats win.
Do you think there will be a debate?
I don't.
I actually think Trump is going to bail.
I think Trump's going to bail on it.
You think there will be a debate?
We're going to be there.
Yeah.
He'll be there.
Will there be a second debate?
No.
All right.
Well, thank you both.
We will see you soon.
And thank you for your coming today.
And finally, a programming note.
PBS Wisconsin will be on the ground at both the RNC in Milwaukee and the DNC in Chicago in August.
Each night, during the convention, we'll have a short broadcast to give you the latest in Wisconsin news.
And be sure to tune in that Friday when here and now expands to a special one-hour program
to break down the events of the week.
And each day that week, you can find us online for a live webcast from the convention,
where I'll be joined by Bill McCashan and Scott Ross,
unbound by our usual time constraints, and hopefully we'll have a lot more exciting things
to be talking about each and every day.
For more on this and other issues facing Wisconsin,
visit our website at pbswisconsin.org and click on the News tab
to see all of our election coverage.
Visit WisconsinVote.org.
That is our program for tonight.
I'm Zach Schultz.
Have a great weekend.
Thank you.
Thank you.