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And then there were two candidates left to go up against Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primary as Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis debated this week and Trump held his own town hall.
For some 2024 election season predictions, we turned to our political panel, Republican Bill McCossian and Democrat Scott Ross, and thanks for being here both.
Great to be having us.
Bill, I'm going to start with you and ask about Donald Trump. He continues to dominate. What is that allure on the part of Donald Trump, even as he faces so many criminal charges?
Honestly, I think the criminal charges have helped him with his own base over the course of 2023. He got stronger now weaker.
You know, 12 months ago, Ron DeSantis was within striking distance of him. And today, Trump is up by 20 or 30 points, depending on the poll you're looking at.
So what I'm looking for on Monday night, Fred, is expectations. So Trump is up on the Des Moines Register poll by over 20 points.
He released his own poll this week that has him up by 30. I'm not sure I would have done that if I were him, because if he comes in less than that, he doesn't need expectations.
DeSantis has to win Iowa to exceed expectations. Coming in a close second is okay, but it's tough to figure out the chessboard for him. What is next move is after that for Haley to get momentum out of Iowa.
She beats DeSantis and takes second. All of a sudden, she's got momentum into a state that she might potentially win, which is going to hamster.
So Scott, what do you think, Donald Trump's allureas?
I think that he is an unstoppable force inside of the Republican Party. In every poll he's been up, at least in the state of Wisconsin, amongst Republican voters for the last, I don't know, since last September, he's up 50% over all the challengers.
And so I think what it is is that he is holding the party hostage. They have, for the most part, readily accepted that, Stockholm syndrome.
And that can win him a primary, but it ain't going to win him in November, because Democrats and independents have rejected him time and time again, particularly in the battleground state of Wisconsin.
Do you think, Bill, that Donald Trump will carry Wisconsin in the primary?
It's hard to say. He didn't win the primary here in 16. Ted Cruz did. He did win the general here in 16, but then he lost here in 20.
So I don't know that he's done enough in the suburban areas to bring suburban women back to his coalition. There's work to be done.
You know, part of that effort might be who he picks as a rhyme, if he's ultimately the nominee. But if it's still a competitive race when it gets to Wisconsin, my money would be on his opponent.
Scott, do you feel as though younger Dems are enchanted with Joe Biden?
Absolutely not, because they know what's happened as a result of Trump and the Republicans having charge of government. Abortion rights are gone.
There is an attack over and over again on LGBTQ people. President Biden is the only president who's tried to really do something about student loan debt.
And, you know, they also appreciate the fact that, you know, they have access to healthcare as a result of Joe Biden.
So no, I don't think there's any sort of, I don't think the alternative is so far worse, and I think that students are smart enough to know that.
And I think, you know, in particular, we're going to see that, for instance, in the third CD, where they've got six four-year UW campuses, a bunch of two-year campuses.
I think that's going to be the thing that takes not only, you know, Derek Van Orton down, but also Donald Trump.
Where do you think Bill Young voters stand between Donald Trump, say, and Joe Biden?
I think the war in Israel is dividing them, right? You got a lot of pro-Palestinian voters who would normally be in the Democratic coalition who are showing up at Tammy Baldwin events.
They're showing up at other Democratic senators events, and they're showing up at Joe Biden events, and that's going to be problematic for him.
I'm not sure there will be as much energy with young voters in November of this year as there has been, at least in last November's election.
We'll see, but they're disenfranchised with where this administration is heading, which could be good news for Republicans if we have the right message to attract them.
Scott, is Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin unbeatable?
Wow. Well, she has been so far. That's for sure, and there isn't a real challenger to her yet.
You know, it's because of her record. It's her record of accomplishments, bipartisan agreements on things like, you know, manufacturing, buy in America.
She is a leader on reproductive freedoms, which is going to be huge for her in a Senate race, especially when she's paired against possibly, you know, the most anti-choice candidate that we'll ever see if we get Hovte or David Clark.
But again, I think the Republicans are the ones who are in disarray here because they don't have anybody to go up against a sitting senator.
Do you think that Tammy Baldwin is formidable, Bill?
There's no question she's formidable. She's a tough out. And anyone who thinks otherwise on our side isn't looking at her electoral history.
She works hard. She does phenomenal on constituent services, where I think her greatest, I think she has two vulnerabilities.
Number one is Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. Can she run ahead of Joe Biden if she needs to?
Maybe Ron Johnson did run ahead of Trump here in 16, but it's pretty rare for a U.S. Senate candidate to run ahead of the top of their ticket.
She may need to do that in order to win. And secondly, I think the borders are real issue for Democrats writ large.
And if they don't solve that between now and October, for example, I think that's going to be a strong vulnerability for her.
I think that it is a red herring that's designed to divide people, white people against people of color.
It's something the Republicans have done for decades and decades.
And while I do definitely agree with what Bill said, Senator Baldwin has been at the top of the ticket before.
She was one by 11 points in 2018, and Governor Evers had won by just one point.
So I think she has an entire possibility of being the lead of the ticket.
The thing we have to do is remember what happened in 2016.
Hillary Clinton's campaign gave up in Wisconsin. They gave up on Michigan.
They did a half-hearted job in Pennsylvania. That ain't ever going to happen again.
So Democrats are going to have the resources, and I think it'll be a good Democratic victory in November.
So I want to...
Well, the thing to remember is only one statewide incumbent in America lost in 2022 at the Governor of Nevada.
So meeting a statewide incumbent, regardless of party, is very difficult.
So Bill, I want to ask you about the recall effort against Assembly Speaker Robin Voss launched this week,
ostensibly for his opposition of Donald Trump and failing to impeach Meghan Wolf.
What does this say about the schism in the Republican Party in the state?
I think it's a small faction in the 63rd Assembly's district who disliked the speaker for one reason or another.
It's destructive. Anyone who's watching this program that lives in that district should not sign those recall papers.
Republicans shouldn't be fighting Republicans. They should have their aim focused at Democrats.
They're going to be running on new maps this fall. There's a presidential race.
They'll be competitive, congressional races. We don't need to be wasting resources fighting our own team before that.
Scott, 30 seconds left. What do you make of the Voss recall effort?
I think it's... I can't believe that the Republican Party would reject a thrice-married real estate guy who's in court all the time.
I... I... You know, so it's shocking to me. No, it's terrible for democracy.
You know, Voss hasn't done anything that's recallable, and the challenge will be swatted away, like Bill says.
But, again, division on the Republican side.
Let me leave it there. Thanks very much, Bill McCauson. Scott Ross.
Thank you. Thank you.
You self-corrected.
When was that?
Yeah, you came close to saying half-assed. You were right here.
Half-hearted. I meant to say half-hearted.
I know, and you did. That was excellent.
Well, you were going to say half-hearted.