In the latest Marquette Law School poll, Democratic candidates Harrison Baldwin are up on their
Republican challengers.
We get the numbers now from Poll Director Charles Franklin and Charles, thanks very much
for being here.
So, as we head bind, Colonel Harris polls 52% to 48% for Donald Trump.
Now, these are the same numbers as last month, so no things moving the needle?
Not much in the near term.
Back in July after Harris first got in the race, it was Trump by one point with registered
voters, Harris by one point with likely voters, that has moved to a four-point Harris lead,
which is then repeated in this latest poll.
You know, remember, we were off by four points in 2020, so if you subtract that four points,
we could be dead-tied if we have as big an error as we did in 2020.
Of course, I hope that our poll is more accurate this time.
So, in the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Tammy Baldwin is at 53% or a COVID-19, 46%.
How does this compare to your last poll?
This is an increase.
It was a four-point Baldwin lead in early September, 7% now.
Over the whole course of the campaign, we've seen earlier polls as close as four or as
wide as seven, and we did have one result with likely voters that was 50-50, though that
was early in the campaign, and we haven't seen a similarly close race there.
Do you have any idea what might explain her pulling a head like this?
Well, she's been strong all year, as Democrats quite unified behind her, but also doing well
with independence.
In the last two polls, though, she's increased her advantage with independence, and I think
that's helping to explain how we've gotten to a four or now a seven-point lead.
Humpty, on the other hand, is unifying Republicans, so there's less of a crossover vote than
there was way back in the early spring.
Interesting.
So you had an interesting question about people who have stopped talking to each other
about politics, and 46% said they had.
Now, you note that this is higher than in the past two election cycles.
Does this surprise you, though, given the rhetoric out there?
Not given the rhetoric, you would expect we're more polarized by a whole lot of measures,
but we've asked this.
We originally asked it just before the gubernatorial recall in 2012, and then in 2016 and in 20,
and those three times we've asked have been 34, 35, and 36% stopped talking.
So a 10-point increase this year, I think, does tell us a little bit about a more polarized,
more personalized politics.
So, on enthusiasm to vote, which is a super important measure, the overall enthusiasm to
vote is very high at 67%, with Democrats even more so at 71%, and it has jumped the most
for independence, 50% of whom in this latest poll said they are enthusiastic to vote.
Yeah, independence had been lagging in the 30s all year.
This is the first time we've seen a big bump up with them.
I think that means, in part, that they're beginning to tune into the race, unlike partisans.
They're not sitting rooting for a candidate since January and are now getting more engaged.
But early in the year, Republican enthusiasm was well higher than Democratic enthusiasm,
with the change of candidates, Democrats moved up, almost catching Republicans in July
and moved ahead in early September.
Now Republicans have moved up as well and closed that gap, a very small Democratic advantage,
but now both parties look as mobilized as they were in 2020.
That suggests we'll see a similarly high turnout in November as we did in 2020.
Something about the independent vote, when you consider that 61% of independents say
they support Harris compared to 39% for Trump, is that an important measure?
It's a very important measure.
There are only about 12% of voters that call themselves independents that aren't closer
to either party.
Independence had favored Trump through the spring and still favored Trump by a little
bit in July when Harris was first in the race.
But we now have two polls in a row with independent support around 60% for Harris.
You always worry with independents because they can change their mind.
They're a fickle group that, because they don't have party loyalties, they may shift
and now could shift again.
But seeing two polls in a row with that significant uptick and strong Harris support, I think
is important, and it helps account for why Harris is up by four points instead of two
points or one point.
So on the issues, Trump wins, again, on immigration, the Israel, Hamas war, and the economy while
Harris wins on fair and accurate elections, Medicare and Social Security, abortion policy,
and health care.
And yet the economy, of course, remains the singular, most important issue to voters.
But is the economy as ruinous as the GOP is telling us it is right now?
The economy is pretty good.
We've seen good job reports and the dock workers strike just settled.
So there are positive economic indicators, but the negativity about the economy is still
pretty high.
We're getting, I think it's about 30% in this poll, say the economy is doing poorly.
Only 38% say it's excellent or good.
So that's a pretty poor picture of the economy.
The fact that people still say the economy is the most important issue and that Trump
has about an eight-point advantage on that issue is why this race is still close and
why Donald Trump could still win this race on the most important issue, even though Harris
has advantages on abortion and on personal trade, she's seen as having the right temperament
to be present and Trump has not.
So we've got conflicting forces here, the economy being a real strength for Trump.
Lastly, with less than a minute left, you did another question about property taxes versus
school spending.
56% of respondents say reducing property taxes is more important than increasing funding
for schools, which sits at 44% big shift.
It's a big shift over a longer period of time.
In 2018, those numbers were almost exactly the opposite.
High 50s favoring schools, low 40s or even 39% saying property taxes was more important.
And those numbers have moved steadily over these last six years until they've completely
reversed.
So this, and I would say that was after support for schools built from 2012 through 2018.
So we've really ridden this cycle up with support for schools.
We've now ridden it down and concerned for property taxes now higher levels than what
we saw in 2012, 2013.
All right.
We leave it there, Charles Franklin.
Thanks very much.
Thank you.
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That's our program for tonight.
I'm Frederica Freiberg.
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