1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:24,480 The 2 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:32,080 monthly US jobs report out today shows encouraging news for the economy, adding 162,000 jobs, 3 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:36,560 keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent. 4 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:42,660 In Wisconsin, the state of working Wisconsin is mixed, according to a report by the same 5 00:00:42,660 --> 00:00:47,040 name from the High Road Strategy Center at UW-Madison. 6 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:51,280 Laura Dresser is an economist and associate director at the center, and Laura, thanks a 7 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:52,280 lot for being here. 8 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:53,280 I'm delighted to be here. 9 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:58,440 So how do our job numbers stack up and how have they trended since your last Labor Day 10 00:00:58,440 --> 00:00:59,440 report? 11 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:00,440 Yeah. 12 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:03,880 It's been a really rocky time for the economy as a great report today from the national 13 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:04,880 level. 14 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:10,640 But on net, the national labor market has barely grown since January of 2025. 15 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:16,280 And Wisconsin, as of the data that came out last month, Wisconsin's total job base had 16 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:21,680 actually fallen and was slightly below where it had been in January of 2025. 17 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:27,640 So your report shows median wages have grown steadily, so part of the mix that we're talking 18 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:31,540 about now sitting at just over $26 an hour. 19 00:01:31,540 --> 00:01:34,040 But what stands out in that stat? 20 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:39,400 That's interesting, because the median, it's great to see that going up, because it's going 21 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,640 up faster than inflation. 22 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:47,440 It's been steadily going up faster than inflation for most of the last 10 years, except for 2022 23 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:50,040 when inflation was really high. 24 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:52,120 So that's a great stat on that sense. 25 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:57,080 But there's a lot of disparities hidden underneath the median. 26 00:01:57,080 --> 00:02:01,120 And so we look in the report to see what's going on. 27 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:05,560 And some of the gaps between, for example, the lowest wage workers and the highest wage 28 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:09,920 workers continue to shrink a little bit because of the tightness of this labor market and 29 00:02:09,920 --> 00:02:16,400 the way that lower wage workers have moved forward in wages faster than higher wage workers. 30 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:18,680 And there's also some kind of demographic gaps. 31 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:19,680 Yeah. 32 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:20,680 Sure. 33 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:21,960 There's a big gender gap in wages. 34 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:26,960 People are familiar with that, though, over the last 40 years, which we document in this, 35 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:29,520 men's wages have only risen a little. 36 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,720 Women's wages have come quite substantially up. 37 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:39,960 So the gender gap has closed over the last 40 years, and even over the last little bit. 38 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:47,040 But other gaps are large and have grown, especially racial gaps, black, white disparity, 39 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:50,680 black, Hispanic, white disparity has grown quite substantially. 40 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:55,680 As to what a lot of people are hyper-focused on, that being inflation, you say there's 41 00:02:55,680 --> 00:03:00,920 concern that inflation could wipe out wage gains of 2026, how so? 42 00:03:00,920 --> 00:03:01,920 Yeah. 43 00:03:01,920 --> 00:03:05,560 That's even true in the national report from today. 44 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:10,320 Inflation, the rate of inflation is higher than the rate of wage growth. 45 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:12,720 This is what happened in 2022. 46 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:17,520 Those wages went up in nominal terms, but the cost of living just wiped that right 47 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:18,520 out. 48 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:20,840 That looks like what we're heading into for 2026. 49 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:27,240 So while we got a high in 2025, and that's great news, 2026 looks much less likely that 50 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:32,560 that will be a strong gain and possible that it will be a loss because of the high inflation. 51 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:37,680 As to affordability, you report that one in three households in Wisconsin cannot afford 52 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:39,680 basic things. 53 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:44,640 You described this as nothing new, but is it about the cost of living, per se, or is 54 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:46,080 it about the wage? 55 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:47,080 Yeah. 56 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:50,400 I think it's really important to see both of those things in balance. 57 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:56,480 I think when we are focused on the cost of living, like we see the prices go up especially 58 00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:03,080 recently of energy, gas, utilities, that makes folks focus on the cost of living. 59 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:09,360 But in the background, the suppression of wages, the long term kind of under the rates 60 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:16,160 of economic growth, wage stagnation that this nation has had, even this last five years 61 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:22,400 of growth, have not gotten us back to kind of moving ahead as the economy moves ahead. 62 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:29,880 And if it was, the questions of affordability would be wiped out by having a better job. 63 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:34,880 Another prong that you looked at in your report was the role of immigration in Wisconsin. 64 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,240 How does that factor into the Wisconsin economy? 65 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:42,120 Yeah, it's important to remember that immigrants make enormous contributions to the Wisconsin 66 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:43,120 economy. 67 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,240 23 billion annually estimated by some. 68 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:48,800 Seven percent of the Wisconsin workforce is immigrants. 69 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:55,040 And what we document this year is research nationally that shows that when the massive 70 00:04:55,080 --> 00:05:02,080 deportation raids began, it obviously decreases employment of the immigrant workers who are 71 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:04,160 deported, obviously. 72 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:09,120 But that spills over as well to a significant decrease in the employment of immigrant workers 73 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:14,840 who are worried or are having to cover family responsibilities for other folks. 74 00:05:14,840 --> 00:05:17,520 Just the fear in the community represses there. 75 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:23,720 But the evidence also shows that with these raids comes a decline in employment for white 76 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:25,120 men as well. 77 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:30,440 And so what we have is a kind of structure that's, I think, in theory supposed to be 78 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:32,920 better for the economy in some ways. 79 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:38,880 But it's these massive raids, the evidence is that they're actually shrinking the economy. 80 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:40,520 Laura Dresser, will you be there? 81 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:41,520 Thanks so much. 82 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:42,520 Thanks for having me. 83 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:48,320 As to the rise in cost of energy, many people want to see an even bigger turn to renewable 84 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:49,320 sources. 85 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:54,840 Solar panel fields and wind turbines have been cropping up next to and on top of Wisconsin 86 00:05:54,840 --> 00:05:57,800 farms for a couple of decades now. 87 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:01,760 But as reporter Stephen Potter explains, not everyone is on board.