Reproductive rights were said to be a primary
driver for voters in Tuesday's election but were they what was we turned to UW
lacrosse political scientist Anthony Trigoski for his take and thanks for
being here professor. Thank you. Is it fair to say that the main driver of
Donald Trump's win was voters on happiness with the economy? I think so
just general dissatisfaction with the Biden administration and there could be
different factors driving that dissatisfaction but when we look across
the country there was this uniform swing towards the Trump ticket across all
kinds of geographic areas across all kinds of demographics so it tells me
that this election was bigger than any one specific region any one specific
geographic area any one specific demographic though there are some
demographics that do stand out as particularly significant. In general this
just seems to be a broad repudiation of the Biden administration. Yeah so your
quoted is saying that the results underscore Trump's ability to make
largely uniform gains across all types of geographic areas and all types of
demographics you say some of those demographics stand out like what the
Latino vote when we look at areas with a concentrated Latino vote we see a stark
trend towards Donald Trump so those states with the high levels of the
Latino population that is a big part of the post-election analysis I think but
of course Wisconsin very much a majority white state so the racial and ethnic
politics of Wisconsin are different than say a state like Arizona or Nevada so
we did see Wisconsin follow slightly different trends than other states in
fact the swing towards Trump was not as substantial in Wisconsin as in some
other states so I think all of that relevant when we do that post-election
analysis. Were you surprised at all by the gains on Trump's part nationwide but
even the smaller ones in Wisconsin? Yeah he did make some small gains in
Wisconsin ultimately enough to put him over the top here but it was still a
really close election and now Fred we get to say that the last three
presidential elections in Wisconsin were each decided by fewer than 30,000 votes
so Wisconsin entered this election season as the ultimate swing state I
think we emerge from this election season as the ultimate swing state there
is always talk about states becoming swing states or states that were
swing states no longer being swing states speculation about say if Wisconsin goes
the direction of Ohio going more Republican goes the direction of
Virginia going more Democratic but I think we're right back where we started
Wisconsin being that key swing state. So even though suburban Milwaukee continues
to edge toward blue in in in parts of it Donald Trump gained in places like
Madison on the UW campus. Who are his voters helping him make those kinds of
gains? There's a lot of talk about young men and the gender gap is a big story
line in this election. We've seen a gender gap in American elections for
years and years and years where women are more likely to go for the Democratic
Party and men are more likely to go for the Republican Party and we see that
gender gap across all ages but there are signs that the gender gap is
particularly pronounced among young voters and this fits into the lose by
less motto that Republicans had when it comes to Madison and Milwaukee. They
know they're going to lose those areas but they wanted to lose them by less
than they did before and it seems like they accomplished that. So the so the
gender gap obviously again was a big consideration but some seem to be
surprised by how many women actually then did go ahead and vote for Donald
Trump. It's a big part of the story right because ultimately the Harris team
could have been it fitted from an even larger gender gap. The big question
going into this election just how big that gender gap would be. The exit polls
give us some indication I think there's going to be more data on that that
gives us a clear vision of what exactly that gender gap was but watch that
gender gap among young voters. I think that's going to be really important in
upcoming elections. So in your neck of the woods in the third congressional
district Republican incumbent Derek Van Ordon won handily. What kind of
co-tales did he get from Trump and what was that race about? Yeah as expected
Derek Van Ordon won by a bit. This was anticipated to be the most competitive
US House election in Wisconsin and indeed it was a big part of the election was
the spending on the Democratic Party side. Rebecca Cook enjoyed much more
spending to support her candidacy than the Democratic candidate in 2022 Brad
Paff. So I think that contributed to the competitiveness of this election. Ultimately
Van Ordon won this election by roughly the same margin that he did in 2022 and
you can bet that the parties are wasting no time in looking ahead to 2026 as this
is I'm sure once again anticipated to be the most competitive US House
district in Wisconsin I think it's gonna stay that way for at least the next
election cycle or two. You were saying that Rebecca Cook did really well
compared to the top of the ticket candidates. Yes here in La Crosse
County and in some of the surrounding counties that I've been able to look
at Rebecca Cook did better than Kamala Harris in fact there are places where
Rebecca Cook did better than Tammy Baldwin and that is no easy feat in
Wisconsin politics because we know that Baldwin has a strong track record of
electoral success. So I think that people are gonna emerge from this
election with a positive attitude towards the Cook campaign. She didn't
quite win but she was able in key situations to do better maybe even
substantially better than the other Democrats on the ballot. And so you're
saying look ahead two years. Yep. Yep. Do we get a rematch? I mean we're always
looking ahead to the next election as as political fanatics but you know do we
get a rematch? I mean when Derek Van Orden did really well in the 2020
election he came up a little short but it was clear that he could run for 2022
and do quite well that year. Are we in the same situation right now? I think
there's gonna be a lot of focus on this congressional district moving forward.
I don't think the 2024 election does anything to change the fact that this
third congressional district is a key one in Wisconsin. All right. Anthony
Trogaski thanks very much. Thank you.
Anthony can you still hear me? Yep I can hear you. Oh well I just went on and on
about what a great interview you are and thanking you and telling you that I
love it because I can just throw anything out there and you can talk about it and
expand upon it and give us context and history and data points so it's great.
Oh thank you always a pleasure. Always a joy to be on your show. Have a good
weekend. Thank you. Bye.