The
good news for the major party presidential candidates, Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
They, of course, won in Tuesday's election.
The bad news?
They lost votes, either to other candidates or to the un-instructed vote.
What to make of this, as the latest National Market Law School poll shows it an even race.
We turn to Anthony Tragoski, political science professor at UW-Lacross, and thanks very
much for being here.
Thank you for having me.
So Joe Biden saw more than 42,000 people vote un-instructed, presumably over his position
on Israel and Gaza.
He only won Wisconsin in 2020 by 20,000 votes.
How big of a red flag is this for Joe Biden?
I think it's a red flag, for sure, because Wisconsin was decided so narrowly in 2020.
In fact, the un-instructed movement had a goal of 20,000 votes, and they easily surpassed
that.
It was a symbolic goal because 20,000 was roughly the margin of victory for Joe Biden in the
last presidential election here in Wisconsin between Biden and Trump.
So in Wisconsin, any little movement of voters can make the difference.
Any little shift here and there can make a difference.
So there are certainly some cause for concern for the Biden campaign.
How likely do you think it would be that he would change direction on his support of
Israel because of this?
I'm not sure how likely it would be, Fred, but what I can say is there's a long time
between now and the November election.
One of the unusual aspects of this general election campaign is just how long it's going
to be.
There's a lifetime between now and November.
So I can imagine that the policies and the issues are going to evolve, and we could be
in a very different place by the time we get to November.
On the other side of the aisle, Donald Trump saw more than 120,000 people vote for someone
else on the ballot, like Nikki Haley.
And he had his own 19,000 un instructed voters.
Is this worse for him or for Biden at this point?
I think the two sides have different concerns.
For Biden, the un instructed movement had specific issues with the Biden administration.
They had specific objections to the policies and the approaches of the Biden administration.
On the Republican side, we've seen this time and time again in states during this nomination
process, where there's a certain chunk of Republican voters who just aren't there when
it comes to voting for Donald Trump in November, or feeling like they're ready to vote for
Donald Trump in November.
We've seen Nikki Haley consistently peel off key voters in the suburbs, those white-collar
professionals, college graduates who have always been problematic for Donald Trump within
the Republican coalition.
So Biden and Trump have concerns coming out of the April election here in Wisconsin, but
those concerns are very different in nature.
So what breaks loose if an RFK junior independent makes it onto the ballot?
I think RFK could have a key impact on the election, not because he has any shot of winning
Wisconsin, but because he could take on that spoiler roll.
And from the April election results here in Wisconsin, we know that there are Democrats
who are unhappy with Biden.
We know there are Republicans who are unhappy with Trump.
The key question is if third-party candidates can be that landing spot for voters on either
side who are not happy with the candidate of their party.
We could also see unhappy voters on either side plug their nose and vote for the candidate
of their party.
So a long time to go between now and November, but I do think the influence of third-party
candidates is well worth watching.
So Republicans won their two constitutional amendments in Wisconsin prohibiting private
grants in running elections.
How suggestive is that when it comes to election outcomes in November?
I am a bit hesitant about making predictions for November based on the April elections.
We're going to see substantially higher voter turnout in November, and there's a lot of
time for the campaign to play out between now and November, a lot of time for voters
to make up their minds.
And the psychology of voters, the decision-making process of the voters is going to change as
we get closer and closer to November.
So I'm not sure I would read too much into it, but what I can say is that Republicans
were effective at messaging those constitutional amendments.
They were effective at firing up their base on the issue of election integrity.
So meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to campaign on the lie, frankly, that he beat Joe Biden
in Wisconsin in the last election, including this week in Green Bay.
Why is this persuasion so enduring in Wisconsin and elsewhere?
Yeah, because it comes from the top.
Donald Trump is the unquestioned leader of the Republican Party, and so Republican voters
are going to respond when Donald Trump says something.
Fred, I think it speaks to the bind that Republicans are in.
We've had people higher-ups in the Wisconsin Republican Party, people like Ron Johnson
trying to encourage Republican voters to vote early, vote by mail.
But then Donald Trump comes to Green Bay and casts doubt on votes by mail.
He calls it a recipe for fraud.
So with the Trump influence in the Republican Party, you frequently have Donald Trump saying
one thing, even as party leaders, are trying to push the party into a different direction,
such as with vote by mail.
All right, we leave it there.
Anthony Trigowski, thanks very much.
Thank you.
We could spend like a half an hour.
You got that right.
You got that right, Fred.
So what do you think about the third congressional?
Yeah, yeah.
You know, I think there's some rumblings about Brian Stiles' district.
So we are still, probably, the most competitive House district in Wisconsin,
though we'll see if that lasts.
Yeah.
You know, I do wonder if, you know, if Trump is, I think right now, most prognosticators
have it as liens Republican or likely Republican.
It's on the board for Democrats.
The problem for Shankland or Rebecca Cook is that Democrats don't need this district
to win back the House majority.
I think it depends on how far that map expands.
Like if Democrats really see the map expanding for competitive House races,
then absolutely they're going to invest in this district.
But if they say, hey, we've got 10 districts and we're going to flip these 10
and that's going to be enough to win the House majority,
then this would not make that list.
Yeah.
Good.
Well, we will be talking with you about that going forward as we cover our
congressional districts as well.
But thank you.
Please do, please do.
Great.
Have a great weekend in Chicago.
Thank you.
I almost said you too.
But nope, not this time.
All right.
Thank you.