in a soda, so that's gonna be a big problem for them.
Yeah, that's all these branch campuses are having,
yeah, just, I guess River Falls isn't a branch campus,
but they're having tough times.
Oh yeah, Oshkosh is up a creek.
Yeah, they're up a creek, that's what I've heard.
Yeah, I mean, we're okay.
I mean, we compete with Winona Estate,
but there's nothing in the Rochester area.
I was gonna, I mean, when I think of the University
of Wisconsin, like the core schools,
I think of here Madison and Milwaukee, pretty much.
For sure, for sure.
And then to a lesser extent, like Eau Claire
and the white water or something like that,
you know, we often, I mean, I shouldn't say it's too loud
because admissions is right there,
but you know, parents who think like Madison's too liberal,
like the same things, right?
Yeah, but also like students who don't get in the Madison
and then- Oh yeah, I had two or three friends
who, that exact, they didn't get in
to the business school program.
So they came here, they did a couple years
and then they finished up there.
For sure, for sure.
I am rolling, so whenever you're ready.
Cool, cool.
Any last questions?
I'm good.
Okay, we will jump right into it then.
First question I got for you, big election last night.
Who are the biggest winners and losers from the results?
Governor Evers and the Democratic Party
because the vote against the constitutional amendments
was the decisive winner in that election.
So when we look at that election,
the ballot measures were worded in a very odd,
confusing, lawyerly way.
And so voters, when they looked at the text on the ballot
for the amendments, they didn't have much to work with.
That meant that Evers and the Democrats
could make a big influence on voters
through their campaign messaging.
And Evers and the Democrats did indeed
make a strong push against those amendments.
They were able to engage and mobilize their base
and that led to the amendments getting defeated.
Yeah, so those amendments were defeated
by a pretty large margin.
Was that surprising at all to you?
It was in the sense that a low turnout election
is always hard to predict.
We don't know how voters are gonna go
because we don't know who's gonna show up at the polls.
But turnout was quite high by the standards
of August primaries and that speaks to the ability
of Evers and the Democrats to mobilize their base.
Are there any takeaways that you can take
from the turnout other than just the Democratic party
being able to turn out their base?
I think that's the number one takeaway I have.
It's gonna be hard to read too much
into the August primary this year
as it pertains to the November election
because the turnout in November will be over twice
what it was in this year's August primary.
So the electorate will look very different.
You'll have more voters who kind of vote irregularly
show up to the polls in November.
The electorate for this August primary
was comprised of voters who pay close attention to politics
and so that affected how these elections turned out.
So we'll turn a little bit now
to some of these contested primaries that went on yesterday.
In the eighth Tony Weed, the MAGA candidate,
the Trump-supported candidate won.
What does that say about the influence of MAGA
when you had two other candidates, Roger Roth
and Andre Jacques, who were endorsed
by more traditional conservative Republican voices?
It shows that the Trump endorsement
can matter in competitive Republican primaries
and we saw that just two years ago
with Tim Michaels defeating Rebecca Clayfish
in the Republican campaign
for the gubernatorial nomination.
Trump endorsed Michaels and that I think put him
over the top against Clayfish.
And this time around in the eighth congressional district,
I think it's fair to say
that Donald Trump's endorsement of Tony Weed
helped put him over the top.
On top of that, Donald Trump spoke out against Roger Roth,
the former state senator who came in second
in the race for the nomination against weed.
Roger Roth was called a rhino
or Republican in name only by Donald Trump.
So the campaign and Trump's influence in the campaign,
I think made a big effect on the outcome.
So in the third, there was a Democratic primary
contested between three people.
Rebecca Cook came out on top.
It was a pretty contentious last few weeks of the campaign.
What kind of takeaways can you take from that race
and how was Cook gonna face up against Derrick Van Ordon
in the general election?
Yeah, Rebecca Cook is a very strong fundraiser
and the Democrats are going to need
plenty of financial resources
if they hope to unseat Derrick Van Ordon
because although this district here in Western Wisconsin
is competitive, it does lean a little bit
in the Republican party's favor.
So Rebecca Cook will have a bit of an uphill battle
ahead of her.
That means that she'll need plenty of financial resources
to launch a negative campaign against Derrick Van Ordon
and to develop her own political brand.
Quarter her political brand is the idea
that she's an outsider, which interestingly
is the political brand that Derrick Van Ordon developed
when he first ran for Congress.
So it's interesting to see those parallels
between the candidates though the parallels
basically start and end right there.
In congressional races in the eighth,
Tony Weed won the MAGA candidate
but in some state elections, Tim Ranthen
and Janelle Branchan both lost their primary elections.
Is that surprising at all?
Does that show that kind of this trend
of election deniers winning office is kind of dying out
or is there really anything we can take away from that?
I think it shows that the influence of candidates
denying the 2020 election result
and the Trump endorsement factor
is a little all over the place.
It's hard to draw any consistent conclusions
about how much it matters for a candidate to be skeptical
or to deny the outcome of the previous presidential election
and how much it matters for Trump to endorse them.
But clearly with Tim Michael's last cycle
and with Tony Weed this cycle,
we see that the Trump endorsement still matters
quite a bit in certain circumstances
in Republican primaries.
I lost my, this is being edited
so I can lose my place here for a second.
Take this part out.
Sorry, I got to cross some things out.
Okay.
The next question that I have is about
the presidential and vice presidential candidates.
They're gonna be in Wisconsin a lot.
They've already been in Wisconsin a lot.
How do Harrison Walls play here,
especially in Western Wisconsin
and how do Trump and JD Vance play here?
Well, the Western Wisconsin region
has been tilting a little more Republican
and recent election cycles
but I don't see it as being overwhelmingly Republican
by any stretch of the imagination.
So I think there's gonna be intense competition
in the La Crosse area, in the Eau Claire area
and all of the surrounding areas,
all of the areas in between
among these presidential candidates.
We already saw JD Vance, Tim Walls
and Kamala Harris in Eau Claire.
I think we're gonna see more of these candidates
because this is that swing part of the state.
There are certain regions that Democrats can bank on
for a lot of votes, there are certain regions
that Republicans can bank on for a lot of votes
but Western Wisconsin is hard for either party to bank on
and that means that there will be
a highly competitive campaign ahead of us here.
Do you think that Tim Walls has any additional sway here
because of the proximity to Minnesota?
He might and it could be because people in this area
are familiar with his record.
People here might have developed
somewhat positive or negative impressions
of how he has performed as governor of Minnesota
and his political style may resonate with voters in this area
because he has that folksy Midwestern way about him.
Too early to tell, in general running mates
don't have much of an effect at all
on presidential election outcomes
but it'll still be worth watching
to see how Western Wisconsin voters respond
to the Walls running mate candidacy.
I'm gonna go back to turn out here in the referendum question
because that was the end of my question
so I got a couple additional ones
if they wanna put them in there.
La Crosse and Eau Claire overwhelmingly rejected
these referendum amendments.
Do you think that the Democratic primary
had anything to do with that
or is that just another example
of the Democratic base really turning out in this election?
I think it's both.
The Democrats in this area were highly engaged
by the primary election
for Wisconsin's third congressional district.
There had been television advertisements,
there had been events around the area,
there had been a highly active campaign in this region
for the Democratic nomination.
So no doubt the Democratic voters in this region
were mobilized.
At the same time, the Wisconsin Democratic party
has built a highly impressive turnout
and mobilization operation
and Governor Evers and the Wisconsin Democrats
were obviously successful at getting the message across
to their voters about which way they wanted people
to vote on the amendment.
Are there any big winners or losers
from these state level primaries?
Good question.
Well, I would have to mention Dane County turnout.
I mean, Dane County's turnout was astronomical
compared to the state as a whole.
And that is yet another example
of how Dane County is a powerhouse
in the Democratic party coalition.
I think Democrats are looking at the near 50% turnout
in the Madison area and looking their chops
as they think ahead to what that might,
foreshadow for the Wisconsin general election ahead of us.
Any last takeaways from the primary last night?
Yeah, impressive voter turnout.
It shows that voters were engaged
to a somewhat surprising level
by the standards of August primary elections.
That's all I got.
Thanks so much.
Thank you.
Cool.
Good.