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The

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United States Supreme Court throws a curveball into absentee voting, letting the Trump administration

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move forward with more restrictive rules, but Wisconsin election officials say were a long

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ways from November and there will be more lawsuits.

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This is Inside Wisconsin Politics.

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I'm Zach Schultz, filling in for Sean Johnson, here with my colleagues Anya Van Wegden-Dank

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and Rich Kramer in Eau Claire.

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Hello to both of you.

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On Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court's shadow docket struck again, releasing an unsigned

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opinion that allows the Trump administration to go forward with orders for the postal

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service to create rules restricting who can send an absentee ballot through the mail.

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Anya, this started as an executive order last spring, Wisconsin was one of the states that

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sued to stop it.

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So where are we now?

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I mean, we're still in the court.

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So this was the court did not rule on sort of the merits of the executive order themselves.

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They ruled on the timing of the lawsuit that Wisconsin and other states filed, essentially

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saying that because the postal service rule has not yet been put in place, they can't

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argue that they have been harmed.

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Meanwhile, the Postal Service did author and publish the rule that would go into effect

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as soon as the order is cleared.

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And so now things go back to a lower court, then they will go back to the Supreme Court,

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which will eventually we assume kind of weigh in on whether the executive branch, the president,

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is allowed to make such a kind of sweeping change to state elections, which are according

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to the Constitution sort of supposed to be decided by the states.

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So nothing happening at this exact moment, but everyone should be a little bit worried

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and aware of what's going on.

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Yeah, I mean, we're 10 weeks out from the midterm elections.

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And so one of the things that we're hearing from election administrators is sort of,

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well, what are we supposed to be doing in the meantime?

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They are in the process of printing out these ballots, ballots that go to overseas and military

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voters need to be sent out 45 days in advance of the election.

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So that's like, I think September 19th.

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So all this stuff needs to be happening, this nitty gritty administrative stuff.

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And meanwhile, they're trying to figure out just like how the rules function.

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Rich, Republicans have an interesting relationship with absentee balloting, going back years

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where they've talked about restricting it, but they also love to use it, including Republican

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nominee Tom Tiffany.

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And President Donald Trump, I believe it was reported used it this year as well.

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So it's an interesting paradox.

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So going back to 2020, President Donald Trump has made these false claims about widespread

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voter fraud that resulted in a stolen election.

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But part of that, of course, was his railing against mail-in absentee voting.

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And he said it's just a prime opportunity for fraud to happen.

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So many of his supporters have bought into that.

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And here in Wisconsin, we've got this paradox where you've got the state party chair, Brian

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Schimming, the GOP party chair, who he said, well, I was one of the first state party

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chairs in the country to advocate for absentee voting and early voting as a way to kind of

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match Democrats who have been really successful with that in terms of getting out the vote

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early ahead of election day, less work on election day.

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At the same time, you've got people within the party that want to impeach the state's

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election, top election official, Megan Wolf.

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They've went after Republican speaker, outgoing Republican speaker of the Assembly, Robin

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Voss, for not trying to de-certify the election, et cetera.

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So it's really kind of a paradox between those two worlds in the Wisconsin GOP.

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So Anya, what are clerks doing right now?

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I guess in Wisconsin history, we've had a lot of lawsuits that happen.

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Right before an election, but usually those involve state law.

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This would be seemingly a much larger change than one that they really wouldn't have any

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impact on.

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Yeah.

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Well, Wisconsin also is unique because it has sort of the most de-federated election administration

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system in the country.

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So a lot of other places, you know, it's county clerks who run who administer elections.

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Here it is local clerks, and I'm blanking on the exact number, but it is close to 200.

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And so they are all, again, doing this kind of nitty-gritty work of printing out the

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ballots and checking their lists, and there's all of this work that goes on kind of behind

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the scenes to prepare for this.

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Every clerk I've spoken to says that, like, as soon as one election ends, the next one

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begins for them in terms of their work.

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And so the primary just ended.

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They're all getting ready for the general.

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And so as these rules kind of shift, and as they're waiting, again, for the back and

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forth from the courts, it really kind of raises the question of how do they follow the rules

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if they don't yet know what the rules are, and especially for something like this, with

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the postal service being in charge of potentially determining who is allowed to receive a mailing

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ballot and who is not, they could accidentally violate that rule if they're not very, very

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careful.

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And so they're kind of waiting to see, so we are just kind of in this wait and see moment

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when, again, they actually need to be kind of hurrying up just to get stuff like formatted

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for the printer.

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Again, this very administrative details that really kind of determines how we all vote.

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And there have been concerns about how the postal service will handle absentee ballots,

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especially under the Trump administration, both two separate Trump administrations.

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There have been questions and conspiracies about whether the postal service will lose

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the ballots, whether they'll be processing them on time, are there enough postal workers

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to handle all of these routes?

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And so I know that the parties in the past have told their voters, hey, if you're worried,

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make sure you deliver it in person, Rich, have we seen any of these groups, whether the Democrats

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or Republicans, trying to make sure that their voters are aware, even if these don't

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happen, like, hey, maybe it's safest to hand deliver these, or maybe you do absentee in

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person, if you can.

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Yeah.

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And also some of the clerks, so the Wisconsin Elections Commission surveyed local clerks

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this year, I believe, anyway, the results came out this year.

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And a lot of them, the majority of them did mention there has been longer than expected

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delays with regard to absentee voting.

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This was in the April Supreme Court election, but so some of them in the summary of the survey

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responses from those clerks have said that people are just saying, well, I won't even

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try to absentee vote.

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I'll go a different route.

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And so some of the clerks were also advising that they consider in-person absentee voting

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or other forms, which is really something.

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And I got a chance to ask Republican Congressman and candidate for Governor Tom Tiffany about

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this specific executive order from the president and what he thought about it.

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He deflected and kind of went along the lines of saying, most clerks do a great job, but

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he said some without naming them have gone beyond what the color of the law dictates.

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So without naming them, we can assume that it might be Dane County and Milwaukee County

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that he has an issue with because we've heard that from other Republicans.

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So it's just a really interesting situation, and we're right on the cusp of this election,

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so this uncertainty definitely has got a lot of eyebrows raised.

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So this has only happened to the last, obviously, day or so.

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How much can this change the conversation in the gubernatorial election?

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Because for the past few weeks, since the candidates have been set, it's been about

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data centers.

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And that's been the driving force of Tiffany attacking David Crowley and Crowley trying

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to defend and put it back in his candidacy.

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But could this change the topic and bring up those connections Tom Tiffany has to Donald

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Trump?

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Or the fact that these almost all come out of election conspiracies from 2020, can this

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be an opening to change the narrative of what people are talking about?

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To a richest point, I think one of the consequences of something like this isn't just

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that it's confusing for election officials, but that it can kind of sow confusion and

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doubt among voters.

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And so for voters who are kind of already concerned about American democracy, who do

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tend to skew Democratic, this is kind of part of that pattern.

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For voters who maybe have questions about the 2020 election, or are Trump supporters much

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like Tom Tiffany, who was somebody who voted to de-certify 2020 election results in certain

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other states, this is just kind of an example of the chaos that they say is just kind of

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baked into the system.

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And so it kind of gives them an opportunity if things don't necessarily go their way in

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November to point to the shifting rules, the back and forth, the courts, the judges as

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a reason for that.

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And so at the very least, even if it does kind of resolve in a way that allows administrators

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to do their job sort of without a hitch, it still creates this sense of chaos in the kind

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of basis of our democracy, which is voting.

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Yeah.

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So Rich, do you think Republicans want to change the conversation here, or is this particularly

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the Democrats would love to be able to pin this back, even if it causes confusion and

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say this is what you get with Tom Tiffany and Donald Trump?

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Yeah, it seems like Democrats are much more eager to talk about this sort of thing than

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Republicans.

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When Tom Tiffany has been asked about his 2020 votes and his signing on to a Texas lawsuit

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that year, that would have tossed out Wisconsin's votes in the presidential election.

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He just differs.

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Like he'll quickly say Joe Biden is president and then he moves on.

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So based on that and also based on some Republican commentary I've seen from people in Wisconsin,

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they definitely don't want Tom Tiffany talking about this.

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They don't necessarily want him talking about issues that President Trump is pushing that

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are unpopular.

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But you can rest assured that Democrats are very excited to talk about this development

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from the Supreme Court, the president's attempts, his plans, et cetera, because we got a press

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release first thing this morning about it.

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So another topic that could come up in the governor's race that we're paying attention

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to, Governor Evers' Commutation Advisory Board met for the first time last week to

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hear a dozen, from a dozen inmates who've applied to have their sentences reduced.

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What do we know about this board and then how will that filter out into Tom Tiffany versus

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David Crowley?

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Why would it have anything to do with them?

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Yeah, so it's the first time that this board has met since 1995 that was under Republican

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governor Tommy Thompson.

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And so this has been sort of a priority of Governor Evers' to make some changes to criminal

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justice in Wisconsin.

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He has not delivered on many of those, but this was kind of one of his final, you know,

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Wisconsin office is to potentially reduce a sentence of grant commutations to some

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incarcerated people.

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And so this is a big deal in part because crime is just always an issue in any election.

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I mean, we've seen it even with Supreme Court races where they don't really have any, you

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know, role in fighting crime, but crime is just something that motivates voters.

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And so this issue of potentially, you know, lessening the sentence of people, some of

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whom were convicted for nonviolent crimes, some of whom were convicted for violent crimes.

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According to a series of kind of criteria, including they've served a majority of their

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sentence.

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They've proven that they've sort of rehabilitated in certain ways, but all of that can be the

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type of thing that Republicans in particular who like to say Democrats are kind of easy

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on crime can really seize upon.

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And you know, I'm from Massachusetts.

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And so I grew up learning about sort of the Willie Horton case, which was a person who was

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released from prison, went on to commit another very violent crime.

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And then this swung the governor's election in a little bit before my time.

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But I grew up learning about this.

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And that is the kind of thing that can really sink elections.

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And so I think as this is going forward, you know, it is popular among voters of many

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different stripes to do some sort of criminal justice reform.

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But when you kind of look at what that actually looks like, it can be a bit of a tightrope

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walk for politicians.

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It's interesting you bring up Willie Horton because that came out in the Democratic primary

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in 1988.

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It was Al Gore versus Dukakis.

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And then it ended up playing a major role in the presidential campaign in 1988, where

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it was Lee Atwater, who was one of the first negative ad gurus out there, ran it against

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Dukakis.

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And it was considered one of the things that showed weakness in him and why he went from

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high approval ratings to losing that election in 1988.

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And Rich, obviously this is something that Republicans have a history of looking at his

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crime in Milwaukee and especially people of color.

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We've already started to see some of those connections they're trying to draw between

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David Crawley and any bad thing that happens in Milwaukee County.

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It's a little bit of like throwing spaghetti at the wall, see what sticks right now.

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But this is definitely something they will use against him, even if it's the weakest

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of links.

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Yeah, that's right.

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This is something that is proven to be able to stick in the past.

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I mean, I think back to 2022, the U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent and now

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Senator Ron Johnson and former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes.

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That race, the Republicans supporting Johnson and Johnson himself just blanketed the Wisconsin

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airwaves with ads about how Barnes was, you know, about defunding the police or he was

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anti-ice and he was weak on crime.

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I mean, these sort of things, again, a U.S. Senator doesn't have a ton to do directly

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with crime fighting, but these are the kind of topics that stir up people's emotions.

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Also back in 2022, the Marquette University Law School did a survey that I found really

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interesting.

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It showed that, you know, 77% of respondents said they feel safe in their daily activities,

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but 85% reported being either somewhat concerned or very concerned about increasing crimes.

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So that kind of shows how the emotions can get in the way of numbers on paper.

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And Anya, it's interesting, the crime statistics came out for Wisconsin showing a decrease,

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as we've seen nationally, including in Milwaukee, but they're still going to be allegations.

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We saw it with videos of incidents at the state fair and all of a sudden the connection

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we saw was Republicans saying, this is David Crowley's Wisconsin.

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And I didn't know that the Milwaukee County exec was in charge of the state fair and like

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making sure everyone stayed in line there, but this will keep coming up, right?

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Yeah.

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I mean, as Rich said, statistics and people's feelings kind of have almost nothing to do

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with one another.

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In fact, there's been research that shows that as crime rates have steadily gone down

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minus the COVID spike, you know, from the 90s, coverage of crime has gone up in local media.

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And so it gives the impression to a lot of people, you know, I talk to people from outside

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of Milwaukee who are convinced that it's kind of on fire just 100% of the time.

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And so if you feel that way, it kind of doesn't matter what the statistics say.

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And you can really leverage that concern, especially for somebody like David Crowley,

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who is so Milwaukee, right, that he is of Milwaukee, he is the county executive, the

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Tom Tiffany campaign will try to tie him to every single problem that Milwaukee has,

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including crime rates that are higher than elsewhere in the state because that is just

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kind of the nature of urban centers.

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So one last area I want to talk about today and talking about changing the topic in the

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governor's race.

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If we ever get away from data centers being this primary driver, there is the obvious

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tariffs coming in, and we have a couple different aspects of one is Trump is escalating

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a new trade war with Canada.

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And we're also seeing questions about whether he would allow imported beef coming in from

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South America to come into the market and reducing tariffs there.

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And rich tariffs have an interesting, another interesting aspect of Republicans of when

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Trump imposes them that they don't change the cost according to Republicans, but when

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he lowers them, it's supposed to lower the cost of beef coming in.

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What's been the reaction to some of these different tariff war battles going on?

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So again, this is something that I would imagine Republicans aren't excited to talk about,

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but Tom Tiffany has in the past, he's talked about how the president is doing these things,

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these tariffs, in order to re-shore manufacturing in Wisconsin.

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He said the media doesn't talk about the success stories.

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He mentioned something about Harley-Davidson plant, something happening with that in Tomahawk.

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So they don't want to talk about the downsides of that.

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I did see something, I honestly wasn't able to go through the whole article, but that

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Tom Tiffany might have been creating some distance between the president on this latest batch

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with regard to Canada, but again, I'm not as super well versed on that.

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It's definitely a topic, though, with affordability being top concern among voters in general,

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and Democrats are going to try to make hay with it.

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And Anya, in our last minute here, talking about these tariff issues, Democrats were

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quick to pounce on this, Governor Evers saying, we have $7 billion in trade with Canada, our

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closest neighbor.

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These have real-world implications, not just political implications.

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Right, but again, it's the work of politicians to draw those connections and make people

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understand.

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When you go to the grocery store, it doesn't say like this came from XYZ, you just sort

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of pick up your eggs and your milk and you go on your way.

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And then likewise, especially kind of further out on the supply chain, we get a ton of wood

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from Canada, for example.

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I don't see a sticker on this table kind of explaining how this table came to be.

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And so it's easy to feel kind of distanced as just a normal person going through the

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world from some of these policies.

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So it's the job of Democrats if they want to make hay with this, as Rich said, to make

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that hay, which also involves a little bit of complicated explaining a sort of geopolitical

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maneuvering, which is a little tricky in like a 30-second ad as we've talked about.

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Yeah.

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And you have to have the money to run those 30-second ads over and over to explain perhaps

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nuanced geopolitical maneuvers in an election.

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Well, that is all the time we have for today.

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Our colleague, Sean Johnson, will be back next week.

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This has been Inside Wisconsin Politics.

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Be sure to follow us on pbswisconsin.org, wpr.org, YouTube, or wherever you get your

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podcasts.

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Did I say that Willie Horton was in the governor's race?

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Fuck.

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Because he was my governor.

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I wasn't alive, but he would have been.

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Do caucus was the governor.

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Yes.

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I knew where you were going with it.

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Yeah.

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Thank you.