WEBVTT

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The

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Democratic primary for governor it seems like two camps have

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finally emerged.

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Why is the establishment more united now and is it too

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little too late?

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This is inside Wisconsin politics.

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I'm Sean Johnson here with my colleagues Anya Van Wechtendank,

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Zach Schultz and Rich Kramer in Eau Claire.

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Hey everyone.

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Hello.

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So it seems like just a few weeks ago on this show we were

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all kind of wondering where all these candidates in this big

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primary fit.

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What were their political lanes?

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It seems like the mainstream front-runner at that point

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was less clear.

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Zach, why is it sort of coming into focus now and is there

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enough time?

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Well, I think you have to look at this primary in the context

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of the national political mood for primary voters, which are

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Democrats that are mainly angry at Donald Trump and his

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administration.

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If you look at it in that frame, the establishment's the bad

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guy.

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The establishment is national Democrats who haven't done

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enough to stand up to Trump.

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So tapping into those voters meant you couldn't be the

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establishment because then you were on the side of inertia.

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So Francesca Hong clearly moved to the left.

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She was going to fight, fight, fight.

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And a lot of the other Democrats in this race were trying

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to outflank her and they just could not.

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Even as late as a few weeks ago, David Crawley was not

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happy to be called the establishment.

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Mandela Barnes denied that there was any lane that he could

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be put into before he dropped out of the race.

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No one wanted to be pinned as establishment because that kind

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of denied them access to the voters that were upset and

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wanted change, that looked like more of the same.

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And so it is a little too late in the sense that if there's

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a lot of votes that have already been cast, but it is now

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clearly going that there has to be a centralized candidate

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of establishment power if they want to challenge the lane

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that Francesca Hong has already solidified for herself.

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And Anya, you've covered David Crawley.

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I mean, it seems like he still doesn't want that

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establishment label for a variety of reasons.

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Why is that?

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Yeah, I mean, part of it is what Zach just described, is that

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there's really a lot of anger towards the establishment for,

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I think, what Democrats feel or some Democrats feel has been

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inertia and sort of not enough of a fight and not wanting the

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status quo.

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But also, David Crawley has a particularly kind of

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interesting personal backstory.

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He comes from a really sort of impoverished challenge

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background in Milwaukee.

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And so up until he dropped out the first time in this race,

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he was kind of described as potentially not electable

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because statewide, there's sometimes negative feelings

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about Milwaukee.

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There is always the racial element of the fact that there's

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never been a black man elected to statewide office in Wisconsin.

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So there were all these questions about him.

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Then he comes back with the endorsement of Tony Evers.

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And all of a sudden, he's described as the establishment.

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One thing I've heard from a lot of his supporters is like,

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well, which one is it?

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Is it that he's too Milwaukee or is he too establishment?

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He can't be both.

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Why is he being held to the standard?

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And I think he's also trying to say,

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I've really kind of had to fight to get everything

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that I've ever had.

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I was not handed things.

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I am not on this kind of gilded establishment path.

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That said, I do have some of this backing

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and the resources that will allow me to win.

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So again, it's a little bit threading the needle of,

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I'm a viable candidate, but I will also stand up

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to the things that you're angry about.

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You know, I always worry when we start putting candidates

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into camps like this, whether this is just sort

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of a immediate narrative that we've created

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or if there's something real to it.

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But I feel like the fundraising numbers that came out

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this week, Rich, do put some substance behind the idea

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that there are these camps emerging

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between Francesca Hong and David Crowley.

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What did they show?

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Well, they showed a couple of things

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that were pretty notable.

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First of all, Crowley raised more than twice as much money

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during the month of July, the most of the month.

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Most of the month of July, he raised $776,000 there about

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and Hong brought in around $339,000.

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So that is a big sign that, at least in terms of money,

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Crowley's campaign is getting some backing.

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And the other sign that caught my attention was

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Governor Tony Evers, you know, who endorsed Crowley's campaign,

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which is definitely being framed

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as an alternative to Francesca Hong.

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He also gave $20,000 from Evers campaign account

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to Crowley's campaign account.

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That's not a lot of money, but I was talking

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with Anthony Tragoski, the political science professor

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over at UW-Lacross.

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And he said, you know, it's not a lot of money.

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$20,000 doesn't buy a whole lot,

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but it could be a signal to Evers donors,

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Evers supporters that I'm not just saying I support this,

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I'm putting my money behind it.

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So Tragoski was saying it's potentially possible

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that it'll open up some more of that money

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from the more moderate, quote unquote,

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establishment wing of the party.

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Yeah, I mean, I think anecdotally,

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I do see the message being received

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as some of these other candidates campaign signs

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in my neighborhood anyway, in Madison

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that we're supporting people like Sarah Rodriguez,

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for example, have changed to David Crowley.

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I guess my question though, Zach, is

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can Governor Tony Evers, popular governor,

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popular within the party, but a lame duck governor,

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this late in a primary campaign,

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kind of steer the ship like this.

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Can he tell everybody at once at the last minute,

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hey, vote for this guy?

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He can try, but the evidence throughout history

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shows that endorsements don't do a lot,

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especially late.

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Early endorsements show that a candidate has viability.

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Early endorsements from unions or from old political people

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can really surge momentum early in the game

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and it's necessary for someone like David Crowley

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to have boosted his name in a crowded field.

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Late in the game, it has less impact

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because people have made up their own minds

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and they're less likely to be swayed

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by one political figure.

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They can say, oh, that's nice, you like him,

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but I've already had time to make up my mind.

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And we've seen it with the Michigan governor

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and her endorsement and the Michigan Senate race

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and her candidate losing.

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We've seen it in other places where endorsements

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don't have the same power that maybe they did

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20, 30, 40, 50 years ago when bestowing the next person

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as an establishment figure meant a lot more

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than in today's politics.

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And the governor wants to frame it as sort of a binary choice,

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a two-candidate race.

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It's not that.

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There are still other candidates in the race,

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Senator Kelle DeRoyce, former Department of Administration

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Secretary Joel Brennan.

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Anya, how do they fit into this?

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And what role could they play in this primary?

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Yeah, I mean, we do end up kind of talking

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and we have for the last couple of weeks about it

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as almost a Crowley Hong race.

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And so they do end up kind of getting some perhaps

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shafting in the conversation from the media

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because I think there's a sense that this is Hong's race

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to lose is the phrase that you've used before.

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And so it's kind of Hong against everyone else.

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And so Crowley has been sort of the anointed one,

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but then Roy's and Brennan are just kind of in the mix there.

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And so I think it really is, again,

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when we talk about establishment versus progressive,

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the other three candidates just kind of get lumped together.

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They're obviously trying to distinguish themselves.

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Again, when we talk about endorsements,

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Kelle DeRoyce got this really important

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teacher's union endorsement that didn't seem

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to really shift anything early on.

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Whereas, you know, 10, 15 years ago,

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that would have been a much more meaningful thing.

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So again, I think it just kind of speaks to you.

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Francesca Hong is running a really unique, strange race.

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She has not raised as much money,

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but it doesn't seem to matter.

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She's making sort of headlines on her own sort of organically

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rather than through these paid ways.

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And then all these other candidates

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are just kind of trying to catch up.

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And she's not putting herself on TV.

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But other people are, you've had these Republican groups

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consistently putting her on TV ads,

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calling her liberal ahead of this primary.

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She has spent zero dollars on television,

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which is just unheard of in any type of like serious race.

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And she's not running just a serious race.

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She's running the leading race.

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She's doing some, you know, digital media and things like this.

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But a lot of her campaign is very grassroots,

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very kind of door to door.

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And so you're right, when we see,

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if you see her face on your TV or on your YouTube,

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it is because these Republican groups

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are paying for ads trying to get her over the finish line

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because they think she's beatable.

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But meanwhile, she kind of says, you know,

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thanks for calling attention to my policies.

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So our election is not happening in a vacuum.

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There is kind of this wave of Democratic socialist

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or Democratic socialist backed candidates

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around the country who have done exceedingly well

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in this year's politics compared to in previous years.

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This week in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed,

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progressive candidate backed by Democratic socialist allies

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nearly won a primary there for a US Senate seat

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over an establishment backed congresswoman.

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Anya, I guess everyone has taken the exact same message

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from this one, right?

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Everyone's on the same page about what it means for here.

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Yeah, you know, in politics,

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everyone just reads everything in the exact same way.

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So of course, you know, again, this overarching question

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this year is like, what direction are Democrats going in?

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Are they going in this more progressive lane or not?

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And so I think for people who wanna see

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that DSA backing in these kind of more progressive

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leanings are viable in a way that they haven't been before.

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El-Sayed's victory is a signal of that.

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But David Crowley is saying,

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actually the fact that it was so close

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gives me hope for my campaign

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because he had all of this outside funding,

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he had all of this outside attention

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and he still didn't run away with it.

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And so even though, again, we see all these polling numbers

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and things like this that indicate

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that Hong is currently running away with the primary,

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he's saying we actually might be really surprised

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on primary night.

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Yeah, I mean, Rich, we haven't reported on this

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and we typically don't talk about these internal polls,

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but this one was interesting from the Crowley campaign

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where they said, hear me out.

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This is actually exactly what we wanna hear

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for Wisconsin's primary.

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And it sort of stepped through, I guess,

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all of the qualifications that you'd need to get there.

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But big picture, what is Crowley's camp saying

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in terms of why Michigan could mean good things for us?

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Well, for one, they're saying,

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this memo was saying that the primary polling

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that's been done in Wisconsin also

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just isn't the kind of polling you wanna do

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to really know where candidates are at.

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They said it was top line and not looking at people

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who actually vote in these sorts of primaries.

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The other thing it was that they were saying

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that primary voters, because of past numbers

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from Governor races before and Senate races, et cetera,

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show that in a primary, it's generally the oldest group,

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65 and up that vote the most.

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And they're saying, Crowley is the only candidate

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talking directly to those people right now.

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So as you mentioned, there were a lot of qualifiers

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to get to the part of the memo from the Crowley camp

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that said this is essentially a toss-up

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between the two of them.

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So it will be interesting because what I've also noticed

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is some pollers, pollsters have said,

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there's like this 10 to 13 point error rate

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kind of built into primary polling.

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I mean, that's what we saw in Michigan.

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El Syed was leading by 19 points in one of these polls

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and the race came out to be really close.

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He won, but not by those sorts of numbers.

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So what does that say for the polling

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that we've been relying on in Wisconsin

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to kind of get a sense of who is in the front

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and who's second place?

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I don't know.

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Yeah, Zach, if you help me walk through this,

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you had like basically four things you had to suppose.

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One was that the primary electorate

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is not what the polls show.

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It's more like 2018, 2020.

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That those are older voters

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and that they're gonna go for David Crowley.

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And that if you really boil it down to a two candidate race,

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which is not, he does even better.

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And when you inform them of David Crowley,

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that his numbers get even better and put him over the top.

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Yeah, there's a lot of assumptions built

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into this best case scenario that even then

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only puts it as a toss-up for David Crowley.

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But that is the odds that he's got against him

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in this scenario given all that we know

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about the campaigns as they stand right now

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and things that are different from Michigan

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as Michigan didn't have multiple candidates

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that had already secured absentee votes

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and then dropped out of the race.

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We don't know how many votes have already been cast

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for Sarah Rodriguez, for Mandela Barnes.

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But I know there are some,

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because I've talked to voters who said

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I already voted for them.

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Those votes aren't coming back.

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They are gone.

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They will not impact the winner

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other than the margin of difference

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and questions of, hey, would that have made a difference

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if they had dropped out earlier

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or if those voters had waited

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or if they could have spoiled those ballots and recast them?

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Those are all things we won't know.

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A lot of this is, in hindsight,

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it'll all make a lot more sense.

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Right now, it's a lot of projection.

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And it's Crowley saying, hey, don't count me out.

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Don't just front-runner away to Fran

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because she's in the lead right now.

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I have a legitimate chance.

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So if you believe this talk about establishment

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and I'm the man, then vote for me.

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All right.

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As our election becomes the next big thing

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in US politics, we're seeing more national attention

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and scrutiny of Francesca Hong

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that includes scrutiny of her social media feed,

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old tweets, including one where she talked about Thanksgiving.

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In a since-deleted tweet from 2020, she said, quote,

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cancel Thanksgiving, should have done this in 162021,

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or 1621, if it takes a worldwide pandemic for us

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to realize we should stop celebrating colonialism

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and the original super spreader event

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that killed indigenous folks and women, so be it.

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An open question to the group here.

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Is this tweet relevant in 2026?

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It is in that people are talking about it.

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We're talking about it here.

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It's made national news, national headlines,

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and you know who loves to hear about this.

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It's the Republicans in Tom Tiffany.

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So I think the context that can be added to this tweet

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is 2020 is when Francesca Hong was first running

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for the assembly, running in a very liberal district

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in Madison in an open primary.

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So everything she was saying,

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whether she believes it now or wants to talk about it now,

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she was saying to a liberal primary audience in Madison

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in 2020, coming out of the George Floyd protests,

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coming out of COVID, all the situations around that.

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When you put it in context,

14:57.800 --> 15:00.680
her tweets look like a candidate running for that office

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at that time.

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The fact that she is a different candidate running

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for a different office today,

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we've seen this from lots of politicians who say,

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yeah, let's not talk about that.

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That was my race for state senate.

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That was my race for assembly.

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Not every politician will always love the stuff

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that's dug up from past votes or past campaigns,

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but she does have to deal with it.

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And so that is what her campaign is having to handle right now.

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Yeah, I guess the man I think about politics

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as sort of a, the customer is always right, business,

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the customer being the voter,

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where even if you don't think they're right,

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you're in the business as a candidate of winning votes.

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And so if enough people want to pay attention

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to a tweet about Thanksgiving,

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you got a choice to make, Rich,

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do you either kind of hope it moves on

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to the next news cycle,

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or you say something about it?

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How has Francesca Hong been handling it?

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Well, to me it seems like she's tried both.

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She's, initially she was saying things like,

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well, if Republicans want to focus on that sort of stuff,

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you know, we're busy reaching out to voters

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and building up our support, et cetera, et cetera.

16:04.320 --> 16:06.000
So she was kind of waving it off.

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But this week we saw a Hong kind of backtrack

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on that tweet in particular,

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and a whole other slew of tweets calling for,

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from the past, calling for abolishing police,

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abolishing ICE, abolishing the US Senate, et cetera, et cetera.

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So, but with regard to the Thanksgiving tweet this week,

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she said to CNN,

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she didn't really say whether or not she still supports,

16:34.640 --> 16:36.320
you know, canceling Thanksgiving.

16:36.320 --> 16:39.320
She said that holiday brings a lot of pain

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to a lot of communities,

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but she stopped short of giving a definitive answer.

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And then on Wednesday she was asked by Politico

16:48.240 --> 16:52.920
about that tweet, and they asked what her favorite holiday is,

16:52.920 --> 16:54.360
and she said, thanksgiving.

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She said, I don't want to cancel it, I love it.

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So that's obviously kind of backtracking,

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whether that's because she saw this as a liability

17:04.440 --> 17:07.520
or she's trying to put it to rest, I don't know.

17:07.520 --> 17:10.360
But that, and also she said, you know,

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in the televised debate not long ago,

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and in these media interviews at the national level,

17:15.760 --> 17:19.800
she said, well, I as governor can't defund the police.

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And, you know, she essentially walked back those as well.

17:24.240 --> 17:27.920
So it's been really interesting to see not surprising

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for a person in that position, but always notable.

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And, you know, you alluded to the office

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that she's running for now,

17:35.040 --> 17:37.200
you get a different flavor of tweet from her,

17:37.200 --> 17:41.560
or I guess in a post on X now, then you did then.

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She's made recent posts about Thanksgiving,

17:43.720 --> 17:45.960
this one from last year,

17:45.960 --> 17:50.160
where she talked about supporting the Goodman Center

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in a fun drive.

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A crucial note there, she is dressed up

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in one of those pictures as a turkey.

17:57.280 --> 18:00.640
So seems like fully embracing the Thanksgiving holiday

18:00.680 --> 18:01.640
right now.

18:01.640 --> 18:03.880
Anya, we can talk about social media

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without mentioning dirt McGurk,

18:06.440 --> 18:09.040
a social media account run by David Crowley.

18:09.040 --> 18:14.040
Circa 2010 has his social media past come back to haunt him.

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I mean, it was kind of the first opposition dump

18:17.520 --> 18:19.600
that came out after he re-entered the race.

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And so these are old tweets, as you mentioned,

18:21.840 --> 18:23.720
from about 15 years ago,

18:23.720 --> 18:28.080
very reflective of a 24-year-old sort of out in the world

18:28.080 --> 18:29.080
with this new technology,

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where you get to just announce every single thought

18:31.000 --> 18:32.840
that you're having as you're having it,

18:32.840 --> 18:35.800
if we all recall what Twitter was like in the year 2010.

18:35.800 --> 18:37.840
So that was a short news cycle.

18:37.840 --> 18:39.840
I don't think it was a fairly significant one.

18:39.840 --> 18:42.920
He certainly said, you know, I was a knucklehead,

18:42.920 --> 18:45.400
I don't stand by some of the more problematic

18:45.400 --> 18:46.160
parts of those tweets.

18:46.160 --> 18:47.760
And I do kind of, you know,

18:47.760 --> 18:51.160
to play devil's advocate about how voters feel about tweets,

18:51.160 --> 18:53.920
I have this question of whether, you know,

18:53.920 --> 18:55.480
voters sort of see what they want to see.

18:55.480 --> 18:57.920
And if you want to oppose David Crowley,

18:57.920 --> 19:00.840
you can point to these tweets as a reason why you don't.

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Trust him or like him or approve of his character.

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And likewise with Fran Hong.

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If you do like them, then you can,

19:07.120 --> 19:08.960
it's very easy to kind of dismiss it.

19:08.960 --> 19:12.080
I saw some of Fran Hong's supporters pulling out other times

19:12.080 --> 19:13.800
that she has knocked other holidays.

19:13.800 --> 19:15.640
She's talked about how in restaurants,

19:15.640 --> 19:17.240
she wants to kick out everyone who shows up

19:17.240 --> 19:19.920
in Halloween costumes, that she hates Valentine's Day,

19:19.920 --> 19:21.800
like working those shifts in restaurants.

19:21.800 --> 19:23.680
So making more of a joke about it,

19:23.680 --> 19:26.400
that this is just learning more about their personality

19:26.400 --> 19:27.240
and their character.

19:27.240 --> 19:31.080
And I think, you know, we've spent 10, 15 years now

19:31.080 --> 19:33.320
having so much exposure to politicians

19:33.320 --> 19:34.920
through social media in a way

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that they don't need to be mediated

19:36.560 --> 19:38.120
through kind of traditional media.

19:38.120 --> 19:40.040
But I think a lot of voters are kind of used to

19:40.040 --> 19:41.800
these more human sides.

19:41.800 --> 19:44.040
I mean, we also saw with Graham Plattner,

19:44.040 --> 19:47.000
what I would describe as like really kind of horrible

19:47.000 --> 19:52.000
social media posts about rape victims and other things

19:52.320 --> 19:53.720
that voters really kind of excused

19:53.720 --> 19:56.520
because they wanted to see the best in this politician

19:56.520 --> 19:59.240
that they really admired and supported his policies.

19:59.240 --> 20:00.920
And so I think to a certain extent,

20:00.920 --> 20:03.560
we're going to see how important these kinds of things are.

20:03.560 --> 20:08.640
And I don't really know that it moves your average voter

20:08.640 --> 20:10.560
other than to sort of put them in the camp

20:10.560 --> 20:12.400
that they might have been going to either way.

20:12.400 --> 20:14.560
Yeah, in an era when the president has been known

20:14.560 --> 20:16.360
to say some stuff on social media frequently.

20:16.360 --> 20:18.480
To govern through social media, yeah.

20:18.480 --> 20:21.800
These are sort of tamed by comparison in Wisconsin.

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That's all the time we have for today.

20:23.080 --> 20:24.040
Thanks for joining us.

20:24.040 --> 20:26.560
This has been Inside Wisconsin Politics.

20:26.560 --> 20:28.880
Be sure to follow us on pbswisconsin.org,

20:28.880 --> 20:33.080
wpr.org, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.

20:38.800 --> 20:39.640
Two to three minutes.

