You
Another major shake-up in the Democratic primary for governor as Mandela Barnes drops out
How does this change the race and what are the remaining candidates saying as they make their closing pitches to voters?
This is inside Wisconsin politics
I'm showing Johnson here with my colleagues Anya Van Wechtendank, Zach Schultz and Rich Kramer and Eau Claire
Hey, everyone hello
So just want to seem like this Democratic primary for governor couldn't get any Wilder. Let's see
Let's go through the candidates here. David Crowley drops out Sarah Rodriguez drops out David Crowley drops back in
We now have Mandela Barnes dropping out of the race some pretty big names there
Anya, what happened? I mean, I will get a little behind-the-scenes
Intrigue for our viewers. We taped a whole different show right before this talking about the debate
And we will get into that later and we got the news in our ear pieces that Mandela Barnes had dropped out
So he released a video on social media and interestingly, you know doesn't endorse another candidate looked pretty
Dejected and essentially said we all can tell the writing is on the wall of who the nominee is going to be
I assume he is alluding to Francesca Hong who is just carrying all these polls
And he said, you know, the number one thing to do is to beat Tom Tiffany
So it was not a ringing endorsement
It did not seem like a an impassioned sort of choice to to step down
But certainly some some breaking news, you know, we're less than two weeks out from primary day
Yeah, we got to tell you we're recording this on a Thursday afternoon
So by the time you watch it or hear it you may know more about this story than we do right at this moment
We can tell you right now from the journal Sentinel the decisions by the Barnes camp
They said came amid reporting into allegations that Barnes was taking advantage of his role in the party to have sexual encounters with young adult women
We also read from Politico the announcement comes as Democratic officials in the state brace for damaging
Media reports. So I mean Zach there are different circumstances under which a candidate can drop out
It can be received in different ways
How would you characterize this one?
Well, this is different from past episodes including the flip side of this when Ben Mandela Barnes took advantage of this in
2022 in a Senate run Senate run when the other opponents in that primary dropped out and they dropped out gracefully saying
The only way at that time for them to win the nomination would be to go negative and hurt the party
And they decided not to do that and they were rewarded for that as being team players down the road
Sarah God Luski was appointed treasurer
We've seen examples of this almost two decades ago Scott Walker was gonna run for governor in 2006
Party officials say hey, why don't you clear the field for Mark Green?
He did and then he was the nominee in 2010 when party officials remembered he was graceful about that
So on one hand it could be seen as men Dalibar and seeing the writing on the wall
He wasn't gonna win, but he has a future in Democratic politics in Wisconsin
That would be the normal way to look at this as saying well
There's lots of future races he could run for but then when you combine this with the reporting that we're hearing and the rumors that have been
We're running around
Circles for quite a while now it doesn't have that same tone to it
So this looks more of getting ahead of the damaging news that could be dropping less Graham Plattner in
The East Coast Senate race and more of this keep your head down and get out of the way
So it becomes less of a distraction and he's forced to bow out disgracefully as opposed to bowing out in his own terms
Yeah, you know, you alluded to there, but in his message. He did not say Francesco Hong's name
He didn't say I'm dropping out because she's the the front runner and that's good
He didn't say I'm dropping out and I support a challenger because he's kind of had some fights with them recently
Rich you
reported on Mandela Barnes this campaign and in 2022 he entered this race and
Presented himself as the front runner and it seemed like that sort of
Slowly slipped away during this campaign and now this quite a shocking arc to his story this year
Yeah, it's been something else
I mean in terms of name recognition
He did enter the race with more than any of the other candidates including Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany
And that was because of the 2022 Senate lost to Ron Johnson. It was a close race
But there was and there was a lot of advertising so his name got around
but
That race really hurt him also
Beyond whatever is going to be reported or is being reported at this moment about any improprieties. He
He was damaged from that
Senate lost to Ron Johnson among Democrats even before he jumped into the race for governor
There was an op-ed that had former lieutenant governor
Barbara Lawton a Democrat that is very involved in the party said that he shouldn't get in the race that he's a proven
He's proven that he can't win statewide
etc, so there was that and
Then we started seeing in the earlier days of this
You know gubernatorial primary among the Democrats where people were dropping out
They weren't endorsing Barnes like they did in 2022. So that was a signal then
Governor Evers endorsed someone besides Barnes who you know Barnes and Evers served together
For years, so that was a sign and now here we are
It's really been
Just a really interesting ride for Barnes
So his departure kind of leaves the race in some ways where it was where there seems to be this growing consensus out there
That this is Francesca Hong's race to lose
She is a Democratic socialist, which is sort of defined this campaign. She was asked about her views at this week's debate
Let's give a listen to what she had to say
What Democratic socialism is is a form of government that puts working-class people first that puts work first
The policies that we have been working on permanent affordability has broad bipartisan support in every corner of the state
Anya you have covered her campaign you profiled her for Wisconsin public radio
How is she presenting her brand of politics to primary voters and also potentially critics as this primary closes out
Yeah, I think she's been really consistent not just throughout this campaign
But you know throughout her political career
She was a member of the Democratic Socialist Caucus in the Assembly
She's running as a Democratic Socialist on the Democratic ticket
And so you've seen that a lot in her policy positions
I think a little bit what we saw on the debate stage was her trying to
nuance some of that perhaps for a more general election again as she is this kind of run-away favorite at the moment
I saw some criticism actually from national DSA members on social media who were saying essentially
Oh, she's not socialist enough
But I think she understands that there is going to be a pretty ready-made line of attack from Republicans
Based on some of her past statements based on calling for defunding the police based on aligning with certain, you know
Sort of far left more like agitated sort of online figures that that gives them easy things to kind of clip
Which can really kind of be hard to oppose from a more kind of nuanced position
And so I think we saw her on the debate stage kind of trying out some of these more
Biteable clippable ways of approaching her politics. Yeah part of the question that led to that answer there was hey
The Democratic Socialists of America stand for getting rid of prisons getting rid of the Senate
Are you with them and she said she didn't agree with them on everything?
But that could do kind of sense from her a pivot toward the general election in terms of the way that she's answering these questions
You know on I don't know you name it tax policy on
Defund the police, you know, what stood out to you?
She's definitely new on saying those positions because in in politics if you're explaining you're losing that that phrase has been around for a long time
So she's trying to explain to general election voters that she's not that kind of socialist
She's a Democratic socialist because the Republicans are comparing her to Venezuela
I mean, that's that's Tom Tiffany's line of attack that I heard on Tuesday night during the debate
I was covering one of his events and he's saying well if you want to know about socialism
You have to look at Venezuela when they're eating the animals and they're eating their shirts and there's nothing available for anybody
And that's what's coming to Wisconsin if you looked Francesca Hong
That's what you're going to hear from them
So her trying to go more on the lines of the old Milwaukee socialists like the sewer socialists
They were called if like let's work on infrastructure and public schools and the public good the public welfare
She's trying to get ahead of some of those attacks and explain that's where her socialist policies lie
Lesson the international communist socialist stuff that we hear from the countries that fall apart that claim to be socialist and rich
You covered the debate
She was asked about I mean everybody there on that debate stage was saying let's tax millionaires to pay for stuff in state government
she
Got a little more specific than others and yet it seemed like potentially an incomplete answer based on her record
Yeah, that's right her
Her website has all kinds of very specific numbers and also she's been in the assembly for some time now and
She's taken a lot of votes. She's introduced a lot of legislation. So on the debate stage
Essentially she was saying well for millionaires. It'd be a 1%
Tax increase to something like 8.6 versus
You know whatever it is now so
She said that but right away online
Democrats even were saying well, you know actually she's got a plan to
Create a new tax bracket and set it at 17 point something percent
Which is true. That was part of a plan she put out and in the legislature. So
she she talked
really generally about it and
So then others had to go and dig up what she said in the past. Yeah
We did mention last week that we were gonna wait for another story to develop this police shooting in Madison
And you've heard all the candidates for governor come out and say, you know, we need to have a swift investigation of that
Zach I think it's fair to say that Francesca Hong's response to the shooting was certainly the most attention getting
She went out to the site of the shooting with the bullhorn and called it an execution
What is she saying now and you know why'd she use that word in her words?
Well, she was asked during the debate. Would you use would you make the same statement as governor and her answer was no
Because the governor has a bigger bigger megaphone and essentially looting it would be appropriate for the governor to make that statement
What's interesting is you're supposed to campaign how you a govern and she did make that statement as a candidate?
Only a few weeks away from a primary and the video of her doing it the crowd is clearly trying to goad her into using the word murder
And she at that moment takes a pause and then says execution
So she was even calibrating what she was saying in that moment
This wasn't as much of an off-the-cuff statement as you might think when you cover her in speeches
She is very measured in her in her thought and her speech. She pauses before she answers a question
She's thinking about it's not just letting the words fly like we see on social media
Sometimes there's some politicians and then worry about retracting it later
So for her to use that word was a deliberate intentional thing and then to say well
I wouldn't as governor does call into question like what is the line then why use it now in this case and not?
And we know it will be used against her tom tiffany's already talking about that
They're attacking the democratic candidate simply be as the street where the shooting took place is still shut down by protesters
Saying that madison needs could control the streets and that as governor he would obviously have that street open by now
So they're going to use this against her as a candidate assuming that she wins this primary
And the question is how does she continue explaining those statements and those votes to general election voters?
Uh, let's talk about david krowley milwaukee county's executive who got back in this race
As the francesco hong alternative and i got to think that mandela barns departure from this race
Potentially changes the the calculus for him
Um, you know rich what were we hearing from you know, david krowley
as it relates to francesco hong up to this point in the race and you know has it been catching on is there as
They're assigned that this theory that krowley supporters had is actually working
Well, um, yeah, the the claim that we've heard from david krowley and some of the other democratic candidates is that
The republican governor's association is essentially trying to get hong elected
During the primary so that it would be easier for tom tiffany to defeat her. So that was the line going into it. Um, and
They
the
I lost it. I'm sorry. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I I will say one thing about those those ads that you mentioned the republican ads
I think they are kind of
Doing there's they're serving two goals right now for republicans. They're kind of getting bang for their buck in a couple ways
Um, I do think there's a pretty strong case to be made that they were there to kind of prop up francesco hong
They're saying that she's a very liberal candidate in these liberal media markets
But I think now
republicans do view her as the general election candidate in the way that they're talking about her
So they are kind of getting a head start on these attacks in some way
um, anya
David krowley and mandela barns were kind of going at it in as their
Canada sees
Progress in this race as mandela barns kind of felt like david krowley had blocked his path
Now that mandela barns is out of the way
Is there a boost coming for krowley? Yeah, I mean, you know, it is possible that among other concerns mandela barns
Felt snubbed by the fact that governor tony avers backed krowley and not him. He was his lieutenant governor. Um, and so we saw
Barbs, I mean like almost schoolyard barbs on social media primarily coming from
Barnes towards krowley, but then krowley would sort of respond in kind so really like a really kind of
It felt like bad blood between them
One of the arguments that the barns camp has been making as other candidates have dropped out is we will absorb those votes
And so now part of the question is where will these
Remaining sort of barns votes go while they go further left towards hong while they go further towards the center towards krowley
And of course, I haven't checked the numbers recently, but as of last week a hundred thousand absentee ballots had already been turned
And I imagine that number is much higher now
So there's also the question of like of the remaining voters who haven't cast their ballots
Some of them are undecided, uh, but those who were leaning towards barns now where are they going to go?
Especially if you know these allegations start to come out and it becomes an even more chaotic news cycle that distracts from
The actual sort of meat of the campaign
Uh rich, you know real quick on that law that on those ballots there was a lawsuit filed to try to get them counted
Uh judge ruled on that this week. What does that mean for those absentee ballots?
Well, yeah, the judge
Dismissed or denied to issue an injunction essentially blocking the wisconsin elections commission guidance saying that
You cannot, um if you have sent in your absentee ballot, you cannot
Ask for it to be spoiled and and get a new one
So essentially what that means is that people who have already cast ballots
for, um, you know lieutenant governor sarah rod regas mandela barns
Uh, missy hues. They're essentially out of luck
Um at this point so unless that changes unless this is rushed through an appeal process up to the supreme court and the supreme court
Makes a ruling before august 11th. It kind of seems like
Those votes will be counted, but
They won't go anywhere
Zach we had a a couple of polls out this week
Uh, they both showed francesca hong with at least a 20 point lead
Um
You know one of them showed mandela barns and marquette showed mandela barns and second david kraillie down at about
100%
But in the marquette poll we're looking at a third of voters still undecided
Now mandela barns is out of the race. You have those undecided voters. David kraillie is still there
Could this race shake up and change in the closing days?
Well, every time we say no, we're proven wrong
It does get shaken up by larger events than what we probably could have predicted on this show
But the question is is there enough room for any one to gain enough ground to catch the lead
That francesca hong looks like she has
Just talking about those absentee ballots that have been cast they're not getting counted back
The question will be once this race is all over
Will the margin of votes that mandela barns and rodriga's received add up to the amount that the second place person took
Or will they have made a difference in some spoiling manner? That'll be interesting math to see but by then we'll have a winner
Yeah, we're either going to have
A massive comeback here by one of these candidates coming back to
I guess edge out francescong at the end or else we're going to have
The most interesting governors race in the country this November between a democratic socialist and somebody that
Democrats will paint as an election denier in tom tiffany
So get ready for a lot of money and ads to come to your state of wisconsin, which we are very used to
That's all the time we have for today. Thanks for joining us
This has been inside wisconsin politics
Be sure to follow us on pbs wisconsin.org wpr.org youtube or wherever you get your podcasts