WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:23.000 The Democratic candidates for Governor make their closing pitches to voters. 00:23.000 --> 00:24.000 What are they saying? 00:24.000 --> 00:27.440 And how is the race shaping up with less than two weeks ago? 00:27.440 --> 00:33.440 This is inside Wisconsin politics. 00:33.440 --> 00:38.440 I'm Sean Johnson here with my colleagues, Anya Van Wechtendong, Zach Schultz, and Rich Kramer and Eau Claire. 00:38.440 --> 00:39.440 Hey everyone. 00:39.440 --> 00:40.440 Hello. 00:40.440 --> 00:45.440 So we're going to get into how each of these candidates is presenting themselves here in just a moment. 00:45.440 --> 00:56.440 But before we do that, I wonder if each of you would take a quick stab at summing up this race as we know it right now with less than two weeks ago. 00:56.440 --> 00:57.440 Zach, you first. 00:57.440 --> 01:03.440 I would say remarkable consistency at the top and the bottom and a lot of churn in the middle. 01:03.440 --> 01:04.440 There we go. 01:04.440 --> 01:05.440 Okay. 01:05.440 --> 01:06.440 Anya, how about you? 01:06.440 --> 01:10.440 You know, I feel like we spent so many months kind of waiting for something to happen in this race. 01:10.440 --> 01:12.440 And then everything happened all at once. 01:12.440 --> 01:14.440 And now the deck is kind of completely shuffled. 01:14.440 --> 01:16.440 So Topsy Turvy might be the word I would use. 01:16.440 --> 01:17.440 Topsy Turvy. 01:17.440 --> 01:18.440 I like it. 01:18.440 --> 01:19.440 How about you, Rich? 01:20.440 --> 01:22.440 Locked in question mark. 01:22.440 --> 01:29.440 It looks like we've got the candidates that will stay in the race until the end of the primary campaign season. 01:29.440 --> 01:31.440 I'm not sure though. 01:31.440 --> 01:32.440 All right. 01:32.440 --> 01:34.440 I'm going to answer the question too, I suppose. 01:34.440 --> 01:39.440 I think at this point, we have to say the primary is kind of Francesca Hong's to lose. 01:39.440 --> 01:44.440 There's still a lot of undecided voters and they're still looking for somebody to send them a message. 01:45.440 --> 01:52.440 But she has consistently led in polling and seemingly driven the discussion in this campaign. 01:52.440 --> 01:57.440 So let's look at what the candidates are saying and how they're presenting themselves in these closing days. 01:57.440 --> 02:01.440 And for help with this, we're going to use clips from their debate this week. 02:01.440 --> 02:04.440 Let's start with Madison Representative Francesca Hong. 02:04.440 --> 02:07.440 She's a Democratic Socialist, which is sort of defined as campaign. 02:07.440 --> 02:08.440 She was asked about her views. 02:08.440 --> 02:11.440 Let's give a listen to what she had to say. 02:11.440 --> 02:18.440 What Democratic socialism is, is a form of government that puts working-class people first, that puts work first. 02:18.440 --> 02:26.440 The policies that we have been working on, permanent affordability, has broad bipartisan support in every corner of the state. 02:26.440 --> 02:30.440 Anya, you profiled Francesca Hong for Wisconsin Public Radio. 02:30.440 --> 02:37.440 How is she presenting her brand of politics to primary voters and to potential critics out there? 02:37.440 --> 02:44.440 I mean, so she's been running pretty consistent with who she was in the assembly, again, as a member of the Democratic Socialist Caucus in there. 02:44.440 --> 02:48.440 And that's been sort of the name of the game for her campaign as well. 02:48.440 --> 02:57.440 You know, all of the Democrats are relatively aligned on sort of the big picture issues, and then she tends to take it a little bit further into, again, that sort of DSA lane. 02:57.440 --> 03:01.440 But it's been interesting as she's been kind of consistently at the front. 03:01.440 --> 03:06.440 It's not that the message has changed so much, but she is starting to kind of nuance some of those views. 03:06.440 --> 03:17.440 So, you know, in the past, for example, one of the really, really big things that has dogged her campaign is that during 2020 she called to defund the police and looking towards an eventual sort of abolition of the police. 03:17.440 --> 03:25.440 And all reporters have been asking her about these comments for months and months, and she's always given a kind of more nuanced take on her view of public safety, 03:25.440 --> 03:35.440 but I think she's had to be really kind of mindful about that as she has become a clear front-runner because Republicans are going to make an attack ad, if not 20, out of those types of comments. 03:35.440 --> 03:42.440 Yeah, is she also kind of pivoting toward the general when it comes to tax policy because she was asked about that at the debate? 03:42.440 --> 03:53.440 I mean, you have to kind of wonder, right? So, on the trail again, she has, I think some of the most specific sort of policy platforms of any of the candidates, which has been kind of interesting. 03:53.440 --> 04:04.440 She has these kind of platforms put on her website, and so in terms of like raising taxes, it has looked like she has wanted to greatly increase taxes on the wealthiest earners in Wisconsin. 04:04.440 --> 04:14.440 At the debate, she hedged and presented a much lower number, but of course tax the rich is a major kind of attractive talking point that she has had for her base. 04:14.440 --> 04:21.440 People have really responded to that, but perhaps moderate voters or wealthier voters or more Republican voters would not. 04:21.440 --> 04:31.440 Yeah, the ads might run the same whether or not you're talking about the bill she sponsored in the assembly, which was around 17.7% for the top income earners versus 8.65. 04:31.440 --> 04:41.440 But that is a pretty stark difference in terms of the amount of dollars we're talking about, which would be around $9 million in its first year of increased taxes. 04:41.440 --> 04:52.440 Zach, we said last week we were just kind of wait for the facts to play out in an event that happened that all the candidates reacted to, this Madison police shooting. 04:52.440 --> 05:02.440 I think it's fair to say a week later, Francesca Hong's reaction was the loudest in most detention getting. She went to a Madison city street, called it an execution. 05:02.440 --> 05:04.440 What's she saying now? 05:04.440 --> 05:08.440 Well, she was asked directly at the debate, would she make those same statements as governor? 05:08.440 --> 05:18.440 And her response was, no, she says the governor has a larger megaphone or speaker, and so indicating that she thought it wouldn't be responsible as governor to make those. 05:18.440 --> 05:22.440 Interesting that a lot of people are said you should campaign the way you were governed. 05:22.440 --> 05:32.440 So I don't know why she thought it would be okay as a candidate to make those statements, but not three months from now if she becomes governor elect to make the same statements in the same type of scenario. 05:32.440 --> 05:42.440 This is something that rolls right into what we're just talking about, that defund the police background that comes with her candidacy and others in the Democratic Socialist Party. 05:42.440 --> 05:47.440 And Republicans are absolutely already using against her. They're prepared at every step along the way. 05:47.440 --> 05:57.440 I think maybe what's surprising in this campaign is none of the other Democrats that are running against her have tried to use that against her if they were serious about trying to make a move on her polling position. 05:57.440 --> 06:01.440 So let's move to one of those Democrats, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes. 06:01.440 --> 06:10.440 He was considered a front-runner to start this race because of his statewide name recognition as Lieutenant Governor and a candidate for Senate in 2022. 06:10.440 --> 06:13.440 He talked about that at Tuesday's debate. 06:13.440 --> 06:19.440 There's not a single person on this stage who's united all shades of blue of the Democratic Party as I have before. 06:19.440 --> 06:25.440 Now, that race in 2022, it was the closest US Senate race in the state in over 100 years. 06:25.440 --> 06:30.440 It was the closest challenge to any incumbent across the entire country, no incumbent in law statewide. 06:30.440 --> 06:43.440 Rich, you profiled Mandela Barnes for WPR. He's definitely presenting that Senate run as a positive, but I think undeniably it's a vulnerability for him with some voters. 06:43.440 --> 06:50.440 What are your impressions with how he's been navigating that and how voters view it? 06:50.440 --> 07:02.440 Well, since I've been, since I talked to him for the profile, he's really hit on that, essentially saying none of the other Democrats in the race have faced the kind of headwinds. 07:02.440 --> 07:11.440 And, you know, a US Senate campaign where you're getting attacked, tens of millions of dollars, those are some real headwinds. 07:11.440 --> 07:18.440 So that's been his argument, but we've seen that other Democrats aren't really buying it. 07:18.440 --> 07:24.440 There was an effort to keep him from joining the race way back when. 07:24.440 --> 07:32.440 And we also saw a great big snub, you know, the Governor Evers who didn't make any endorsements chose not to endorse Barnes. 07:32.440 --> 07:41.440 So he's been kind of making a pivot lately saying, well, I'm the anti, I'm not the establishment candidate. 07:41.440 --> 07:43.440 I'm the anti-establishment candidate. 07:43.440 --> 07:56.440 So that's interesting in context of what went down in 2022 where, you know, there were arguments from the Republicans that the establishment helped him get a clear path to the Democratic nomination there. 07:56.440 --> 08:00.440 So otherwise his messaging has been pretty similar. 08:00.440 --> 08:09.440 He talks a lot about people playing by the rules, working hard, not being able to get by, whereas the wealthy just keep on prospering. 08:09.440 --> 08:11.440 That continues in his current campaign. 08:11.440 --> 08:23.440 Do you see any difference between the way he's presenting himself now in terms of that messaging and his platform compared to, you know, when you talk to him on a dairy farm in June? 08:24.440 --> 08:29.440 Not really. Not really. No, he's really good at staying on message. 08:29.440 --> 08:36.440 And, you know, we all tend to remember that because we hear the same thing over and over again. 08:36.440 --> 08:38.440 So he's been real disciplined. 08:38.440 --> 08:45.440 But I wonder, John, what does that look like compared to Mandel Barnes from 2012 or 2012, excuse me? 08:45.440 --> 08:51.440 Yeah, I mean, I think Mandel Barnes is kind of in a catch-22 of his own making here. 08:51.440 --> 08:56.440 Like he rose to prominence as a Democrat and got the base to love him. 08:56.440 --> 08:58.440 And I don't use that word within exaggeration. 08:58.440 --> 09:03.440 He was very popular at every Democratic event where he was a guest. 09:03.440 --> 09:06.440 And that was what made him a candidate in 2022. 09:06.440 --> 09:08.440 That's how he got there. 09:08.440 --> 09:13.440 He is now a very on-message candidate who is running kind of as a safe front-runner. 09:13.440 --> 09:21.440 And the trick for him in this campaign is that he's got someone else kind of filling the Mandel Barnes role to his left that has energized the base. 09:21.440 --> 09:28.440 And, you know, you haven't seen him waver from that front-runner kind of position or that general election candidate. 09:28.440 --> 09:33.440 But it seems like, you know, he may need to pull out some stops here in the closing weeks. 09:33.440 --> 09:39.440 Part of the reason for that is that the field was reshuffled, as you mentioned, Anya. 09:39.440 --> 09:43.440 Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley left the race on July 8th. 09:43.440 --> 09:46.440 Rejoin the race on July 18th with Governor Tony Evers endorsement. 09:46.440 --> 09:52.440 His critics, mostly the Mandel Barnes campaign lately, have called him the establishment candidate. 09:52.440 --> 09:55.440 David Crowley had already made a response for that at the debate. 09:55.440 --> 09:57.440 I was never born into the establishment. 09:57.440 --> 09:59.440 I was actually born into struggle. 09:59.440 --> 10:04.440 I grew up in the 5-3-2-6 zip code where I had to work extremely hard for everything that I have. 10:04.440 --> 10:06.440 And so I'm not here to protect the establishment. 10:06.440 --> 10:11.440 I'm here to deliver real results for Wisconsinites all over our state. 10:11.440 --> 10:19.440 Anya, I don't know if David Crowley gets back in this race if he didn't have Governor Tony Evers sitting there ready to endorse him. 10:19.440 --> 10:22.440 How has that been kind of a double-edged sword for him? 10:22.440 --> 10:30.440 Yeah, I mean, obviously, Governor Tony Evers is consistently one of the most popular, not the most popular politician in the state. 10:30.440 --> 10:33.440 You know, grain of salt, nobody loves politicians. 10:33.440 --> 10:36.440 But so that's a helpful kind of endorsement to have. 10:36.440 --> 10:44.440 But of course, that energy that is going around Francesca Hong, it's not just, I think, because of her platform, 10:44.440 --> 10:49.440 but also because of this idea of being sort of an outsider having a more unusual background. 10:49.440 --> 10:56.440 And so having the Evers endorsement does make Crowley kind of seem more mainstream or pull him into that more traditional lane. 10:56.440 --> 11:05.440 At a time that I think some voters are really looking for people who want to kind of blow up some of these institutions rather than kind of going along with them. 11:05.440 --> 11:12.440 And so it shows that he has the backing of this really popular politician, but it maybe also shows that he would be more of the same. 11:13.440 --> 11:22.440 Zach, if he is kind of being put out here as the alternative to Francesca Hong and that is kind of how he launched or relaunched his campaign, 11:22.440 --> 11:27.440 why did we not see him go after her or attack her during the debate? 11:27.440 --> 11:29.440 He's still playing it safe. 11:29.440 --> 11:35.440 Like every one of these politicians understands when you go negative that harms you long term within the party, he's still a young man. 11:36.440 --> 11:39.440 This isn't his last chance at statewide politics. 11:39.440 --> 11:44.440 He will be the county executive after this if he does not win and become the nominee. 11:44.440 --> 11:54.440 So there's still a chance we've seen that throughout history of Scott Walker in 2006, gracefully bowing out of a primary and then being rewarded with the clear path to the nomination in 2010. 11:54.440 --> 12:04.440 We've seen it with other candidates along the way where it is an insider's game in the sense that the people in the party in power will remember who played nice and who did not. 12:04.440 --> 12:14.440 And we've seen other candidates that have not played nice in the past and have not received any of the support despite what on paper looks like a strong resume in these kind of races. 12:14.440 --> 12:27.440 Rich, I know there's not a lot of daylight between some of these candidates when it comes to the issues, but in this debate, I wonder if David Carly kind of made a play for the most mainstream Democrat because they were all asked, 12:27.440 --> 12:34.440 would you support that the budget surplus bill that Governor Tony Evers negotiated with Republicans? 12:34.440 --> 12:39.440 And, you know, what did David Carly say compared to the others? 12:39.440 --> 12:43.440 Well, he said if it was passed on a bipartisan basis, he would sign it. 12:43.440 --> 12:46.440 And none of the other candidates said that. 12:46.440 --> 12:53.440 They all talked about the potential deficit down the road that was mentioned by the legislative fiscal bureau. 12:53.440 --> 13:03.440 They also talked a lot about Robin Voss, Assembly Speaker Robin Voss, a Republican saying, well, he's not a negotiating and good faith kind of guy. 13:03.440 --> 13:07.440 So, Carly stood out on that topic. 13:07.440 --> 13:08.440 All right. 13:08.440 --> 13:11.440 Let's turn to Madison, Senator Kaldor Royce. 13:11.440 --> 13:15.440 She's pretty consistently presenting herself as the most experienced candidate in the race. 13:15.440 --> 13:18.440 Here's how she did it during the debate. 13:19.440 --> 13:21.440 That kind of experience is absolutely essential. 13:21.440 --> 13:26.440 And voters need to think about not just who can beat Tom Tiffany, although that is important. 13:26.440 --> 13:30.440 Not just who can deliver a Democratic legislature, although that is vitally important. 13:30.440 --> 13:33.440 But who can actually do the job on day one? 13:33.440 --> 13:39.440 Zach, I feel like if you were going to grade these candidates in terms of how they sort of broke down policy in the debate, 13:39.440 --> 13:42.440 or just in general, Kaldor might come out on top. 13:42.440 --> 13:45.440 She likes to talk about herself as a details person. 13:46.440 --> 13:48.440 Do details matter to voters? 13:48.440 --> 13:49.440 In these moments? 13:49.440 --> 13:50.440 No. 13:50.440 --> 13:54.440 I think voters are going on in motion a lot of the time. 13:54.440 --> 13:56.440 Who is the candidate that speaks to me? 13:56.440 --> 14:00.440 And they're often not looking at the most experienced policy wonk. 14:00.440 --> 14:04.440 That's why we've seen a lot of politicians in a day's politics that really have no experience, 14:04.440 --> 14:08.440 and they prove it once they get in office at all different levels, federal and state. 14:08.440 --> 14:13.440 But there's all sorts of different things that happen, including breaking news right at the moment, Sean. 14:13.440 --> 14:17.440 Yeah, we just heard in our ears that Mandela Barnes has dropped out of the race. 14:17.440 --> 14:22.440 So how about that right in the middle of a show kind of reshuffles the deck a bit there? 14:22.440 --> 14:23.440 That churn in the middle. 14:23.440 --> 14:29.440 You know, we joke a lot about something like that happening, but who boy was not necessarily expecting that? 14:29.440 --> 14:38.440 Yeah, so in a race that has been wild for the last few weeks, another major development here right toward the end. 14:38.440 --> 14:42.440 So, well, the question then, Sean, becomes does that help Crowley? 14:42.440 --> 14:47.440 If they were the two that had the legitimate chance and they were splitting that vote against Hong, 14:47.440 --> 14:50.440 does this give Crowley an outside chance? 14:50.440 --> 14:54.440 Even though we won't have any more big polling numbers to come out before the race, 14:54.440 --> 15:00.440 this has to send some questions into Francesca Hong's campaign and to some others of like, 15:00.440 --> 15:01.440 will this matter? 15:01.440 --> 15:05.440 Can enough people unite behind Crowley as the non-socialist in this race? 15:05.440 --> 15:07.440 I think it has to help David Crowley. 15:07.440 --> 15:10.440 They were pretty obviously competing for second place at this point. 15:10.440 --> 15:16.440 Mandela Barnes and David Crowley, two Milwaukee candidates, two black men in the race, 15:16.440 --> 15:22.440 the two candidates who are not Francesca Hong who have like meaningful votes behind them. 15:22.440 --> 15:27.440 So you talked about leaving a race and kind of like trying to leave a good impression for the future. 15:27.440 --> 15:31.440 This would be one way to do it if you're Mandela Barnes and maybe want to do something like, 15:31.440 --> 15:33.440 I don't know, run for Congress in the future. 15:33.440 --> 15:36.440 Well, it's the flip side of what happened in 2022. 15:36.440 --> 15:40.440 It was around this same time where the rest of the field left the race for him. 15:40.440 --> 15:44.440 He's returning the favor, understanding I don't have a path without going extremely negative. 15:44.440 --> 15:46.440 It's time for me to step aside. 15:46.440 --> 15:51.440 And yes, he is one that understand this will pay dividends down the road for himself 15:51.440 --> 15:53.440 and how the party views him. 15:53.440 --> 15:59.440 We should talk about one of the other candidates remaining Joel Brennan in the race. 15:59.440 --> 16:09.440 And here's how Joel Brennan presented himself at the debate when he was asked if a vote for him is a wasted vote. 16:09.440 --> 16:12.440 I don't think primary voters have been paying much attention until the last two weeks 16:12.440 --> 16:14.440 and all the upheaval that you have seen. 16:14.440 --> 16:18.440 This is what I find when I am going out around the state is that, you know, 16:18.440 --> 16:23.440 and this has been verified by polls that was done here by my alma mater at Marquette 16:23.440 --> 16:28.440 because about half the people at this point haven't made a decision. 16:28.440 --> 16:32.440 34% undecided in the latest Marquette poll. 16:32.440 --> 16:36.440 So it's getting smaller than a number of undecided voters. 16:36.440 --> 16:42.440 One thing that I learned about Joel Brennan when I was editing a profile of him written by our colleague Corrine Hess 16:42.440 --> 16:45.440 is that he is kind of the Tom Barrett candidate in this race. 16:45.440 --> 16:50.440 And more ways than one, Tom Barrett lives in the same neighborhood. 16:50.440 --> 16:56.440 And also Joel Brennan ran his campaign in 2002, ran his campaigns for Congress 16:56.440 --> 17:00.440 and the legislature worked on his campaigns for Congress and the legislature. 17:00.440 --> 17:04.440 And he's presenting a kind of similar kind of politics here. 17:04.440 --> 17:12.440 So as the candidates sort of carve out their lanes, if you feel sort of familiar with Joel Brennan, 17:12.440 --> 17:14.440 it could be why. 17:14.440 --> 17:18.440 They're very good friends and speak very highly on one another. 17:18.440 --> 17:20.440 Just a closing question here. 17:20.440 --> 17:24.440 And I feel like it's changed a lot knowing that Mandela Barnes out of the race. 17:24.440 --> 17:33.440 But what could change this race that would present somebody with a chance to beat Francesca Hong 17:33.440 --> 17:36.440 is Barnes dropping out enough to do it on you? 17:36.440 --> 17:40.440 I mean, the really big question for me has been is another person going to drop out, 17:40.440 --> 17:44.440 especially with the court decision this week that says that people can't spoil their ballots 17:44.440 --> 17:48.440 if they're preferred candidate or if the candidate they've already voted for drops out. 17:48.440 --> 17:51.440 And so Barnes has answered that question. 17:51.440 --> 17:55.440 I know whether any of these major changes that could still happen could have an effect on Hong 17:55.440 --> 17:59.440 because, again, the question is sort of where do his voters then split? 17:59.440 --> 18:01.440 But some proportion of them are going to go to Hong. 18:01.440 --> 18:05.440 Some proportion of them are going to go to a more mainstream Democrat. 18:05.440 --> 18:08.440 So it kind of remains to be seen what effect this has. 18:08.440 --> 18:09.440 All right. 18:09.440 --> 18:11.440 It's all the time we have for today. Thanks for joining us. 18:11.440 --> 18:13.440 This has been Inside Wisconsin Politics. 18:13.440 --> 18:20.440 Be sure to follow us on PBSWisconsin.org, WPR.org, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. 18:20.440 --> 18:21.440 Thank you.